Week 14 Bets + Weekly Specials
Last week we got on the right track with a 2 units win, but it could’ve been much better. We hit on Garrett Wilson to have the most receiving yards at 40/1 last week and he had 162 yards heading into the afternoon games looking likely to be the leader.
Davante Adams broke our heart as he quickly piled up two 35+ yard plays within a ten minute span of game time. He finished with 177 yards to lead the week.
We also bet Tyreek Hill at 11/1 and he finished with the third most yards at 146.
It feels like this year we’ve had some very close calls to some bangers, most notably Rhamondre at 60/1 and now Wilson at 40/1 when they both had 160+ yards and lost.
But it’s part of the game and hopefully we can finally land a banger we’ve desperately been close to hitting.
I try not to get my hopes up too much when it comes to betting, but this week I feel good about how good we got in some bets in the specials market.
We have the following portfolio this week:
Rhamondre Stevenson at 40/1 to have most rushing yards Sunday/Monday
Joe Mixon 100/1 most rushing yards on Sunday
D’onta Foreman 30/1 most rushing yards on Sunday
D’andre Swift 70/1 most rushing yards on Sunday
James Conner 60/1 most rushing yards on Sunday/Monday
Jeff Wilson 65/1 most rushing yards on Sunday/Monday
Tom Brady 15/1 most passing yards on Sunday
Mike White 30/1 most passing yards on Sunday
Tyreek Hill 13/1 most receiving yards on Sunday
Justin Jefferson 14/1 most receiving yards on Sunday
Some of the CLV we gained on these players is unreal. The Mixon and Rhamondre lines were clear mistakes and values and we got two in one week.
If there was a week for us to get lucky and hit this would be the week.
I’ve also placed more bets this week than normal. With injuries starting to pile up along with roles changing it creates opportunities to bet into uncertainty.
Feeling good about this week so let’s hope to run good.
Week 14 Bets
Tom Brady over 249.5 passing yards -114 (BetRivers/Barstool)
Also played over 36.5 passing attempts -130
Since Week 7 the 49ers in neutral script have given up the highest explosive play % in the passing game also while teams have a 9.1% PROE against the due to their 2nd ranked rush D.
TB RBs have been the 2nd least efficient RBs this year. With Fournette banged up and a matchup that screws so heavily towards the pass this is a smash of smash spots for volume in the passing game for Brady.
Brady has over 40+ attempts in 9 of his last 10 games and is averaging 46.3 per game.
He’s also averaging 293 passing yards per game in this span going over his total in 8 of 10 games.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Play to 255.5