Week 13 sides and totals
Plus reviewing Week 12 and Thanksgiving
Week 12 was a fun one, with a 6-0 finish where there wasn’t much to complain about. The logic was sound on several of the picks, and we also ran well in a few, like the late-game sequence in Denver-Vegas that allowed for both sides of that game to hit.
Those of you in Discord know I threw out three plays for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, and we went 1-2 there. One of those plays was the over in Detroit-Chicago, and that late-game fiasco that got Matt Eberflus fired cost us there. The final score was 23-20 on a 48 over/under — even a field goal there all but locks in at least a 26-23 (i.e. 49-point) finish, unless we somehow got a tie. A touchdown was also a possibility and also would have pushed the game over. The Bears had traveled all the way down to the 25-yard line (roughly a 42- or 43-yard field goal) before burning their second timeout unnecessarily, taking a penalty, taking a sack, and then not having a plan with only the one timeout left since they wanted to hold that to prepare for the field goal try (this is why you don’t burn a timeout with 43 seconds left on 2nd-and-10 after an incompletion, which is what they did).
Just a total disaster of incompetence, and that came after a few other tough breaks for the over including the Lions fumbling inside the 10-yard line with just under a minute in half to prevent any points for either team before the break, and Detroit also missing a 45-yard field goal in the second half.
These things happen, of course, and need to be factored in when you’re betting overs. But you won’t see me acting like the Chiefs and Raiders missing four combined field goals and having their own late-game snafu led to the miss on Friday. In that one, which finished with 36 combined points against a 42.5 over bet, the field goals were all 55 yards or longer in conditions where they didn’t even seem close, and overall the under probably was the right bet. I thought we’d get more from the Chiefs but they continue to underwhelm, and their inability to put the Raiders away kept it a slower game late, unlike the frantic, garbage-time environment the spread implied might be there.
At least we hit betting against Drew Lock, right? The 1-2 record over the holiday might have been annoying, but 7-2 since we last checked in with this column has a nicer ring to it, and we’re now at 50-42-4 and +4.37 units for the season.
Let’s jump into the main part of the Week 13 slate. Shorter writeups this week given the holiday, and wanting to get this out. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.