Week 13 Bets + Weekly Specials
We’ve talked a lot about our bad beats, but I think it’s time to talk about a very fortunate one we had this week to start off on a positive note.
We had bet Elijah Mitchell at +260 to have the most rushing yards in the game last week against the Saints.
Mitchell was looking strong with seven carries for 35 yards early on before going down with an injury. The Saints run defense was completely shut down, but it looked like McCaffery was certainly going to hit this over due to the sheer volume he was going to get with Mitchell out.
Jordan Mason sprinkled in there and saw carries and looked good while doing so, but only saw 25 yards on five carries. McCaffery ended with 32 yards rushing on the ground.
Somehow Mitchell lead this game with 35 rushing yards despite barely playing.
Felt good to be able to suck out on this one even with the injury.
Last week I talked about how brutal Thanksgiving was and we bounced back a little bit over the weekend going up a few units on Sunday and Monday to “improve” to -6.18 units on the week.
Thanksgiving took a lot out of me mentally and it was nice to at least see some positive results bounce back.
This week let’s keep it going.
Week 13 Bets
Dameon Pierce over 68.5 rushing yards -110 (Fanduel)
Played in Discord at 71.5
Pierce has been pretty matchup dependent this year based on when his good vs bad games are.
Since Week 3 when he really started commanding a massive share of the backfield rushes, he’s been over in six of nine games.
Here were the following games in which he missed this line:
TEN (#1 rush D)
WSH (#4 rush D)
MIA (one of the biggest pass funnel defenses and we’re down 30-0 at halftime).
It’s very easy to see why Pierce missed in those games.
CLE is 31st in Rush D DVOA this year which is the easiest matchup Pierce has faced all year.
He’s faced five other teams in the bottom ten in Rush D DVOA this year and here were his stat lines:
20 for 80 vs CHI
14 for 131 vs LAC
20 for 92 vs LV
27 for 139 vs PHI
17 for 94 vs NYG
Smash spot for Pierce to get back on track.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Play to 72.5