Week 12 sides and totals
Looking to get off the schneid
Week 11 was annoying, with a 1-4 record. The Packers didn’t cover after getting stuffed on 4th-and-goal from the 5-yard line late, and then both teams missing 2-point conversions and the Bears having their potential game-winning FG block all kept the game under the total by 1.5 points (we needed just one of those four things to generate points), so we went 0-2 in that game.
Justin Tucker also missed two field goals in the first half to put the Ravens in a tougher spot than they deserved, and they wound up losing. That one was particularly annoying because I was going to play it two ways, but didn’t like betting on the Ravens pass defense to hold up two ways, so I scrapped the under and just took BAL -3, and then it was clear in the first half the under was the right way to play it.
The other thing I had started to write up but scrapped last week was a MIA -7 bet at home against the Raiders, and that one also hit. The logic on the Lions bet was great, and they covered by a mile, while the Bengals-Chargers under was just wrong. Just a bum week.
That takes us to 43-40-4 on the year, and just into the red at -0.43 units. It also makes four straight weeks with a losing record on the week, for 12-19 total, something I’m acutely aware of after the stretch from Week 3 to Week 7 where the total was 25-14 over a five-week span.
I’ve talked before about feeling like I was out of position analytically, and not in tune with what’s going on in the league, or where edges might lie, and I don’t believe that to be the case right now. I feel good about my understanding of how the sport is being played right now, and who is successful, and why. But it’s late in the season, and the models are robust as well. Plus, we have a weak slate in Week 2, with only 12 games on the docket for Sunday and Monday, and five with spreads of greater than a touchdown, plus another three at 5.5 or 6.
Nonetheless, we’ll keep plugging away. Let’s get to the picks. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit. Let’s get to the picks.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Under 50.5, -110 (DraftKings, BetMGM)
Pick: DET -7.5, +100 (bet365)
Taking the Lions -7.5 feels like a total sucker bet, with over 80% of money on them after their thrashing of the Jaguars last week. They’ve been dominant at home, but they’ve played closer games on the road this year, and a big theme this week is the heavy underdogs do in many cases have at least decent coaches who can come up with sharp gameplans (Shane Steichen definitely qualifies, but even someone like Mike McCarthy as a double-digit underdog with the Cowboys wouldn’t shock anyone if he randomly came with something, just as it wouldn’t shock anyone if they got crushed).
Anyway, the way I’m hedging this is the under. I actually really like that bet, because the Colts were extremely run-heavy in Anthony Richardson’s return last week, and as I mentioned the Lions have played closer games on the road. It feels like every Lions game goes over this total, but only two of five road games so far have, and one was that 47-9 beatdown in Dallas.
One of the things that happens with Detroit when they are rolling is they can score so quick that the points pile up fast, and so the bet here is that if it does go over, it’s because the Lions cover. If it doesn’t, which is my favored bet here — the under — there are still a lot of scenarios where Detroit covers, i.e. they aren’t scoring quickly all game, but we maybe get a slow first half and then they get hot for a stretch in the second half and the Colts can’t keep up, creating something like a 30-17 final.
Implicit in both of these bets is one solid game last week did not necessarily signal a big change in who Anthony Richardson is, and I think Steichen knows that, as evidenced by their -16.9% PROE despite Jonathan Taylor not running well. I think they’ll try to do similar here, keeping Richardson from throwing too often because of his inaccuracy, and then trying to hit big plays off that. Probably one or two will hit, but it still winds up being a pretty low-scoring offense that also slows the game down just enough, given how high this total is.