Week 12 sides and totals
It's time to start betting overs
One of the big storylines of the 2022 NFL season is the rate at which unders have been hitting, but as we often talk about, the market is very aware of trends like this. There’s also the element on the football side where scoring has been down, but it won’t stay down forever, and after just 43.3 combined points per game in Weeks 1-6, the NFL has averaged 44.6 per game from Week 7 through the Thanksgiving games, which were higher-scoring.
But with the QB changes around the NFL this week, over/unders on Sunday and Monday are low, with three under 40, four more at 42.5 or lower, and just four over 45. The leaguewide scoring trends are what they are, and I want to have a bias toward unders right now, but so does everyone. Unless we think the trends so far in 2022 are an indication of a shift in the sport that is going to so drastically alter scoring going forward as to shift the ways we think about what high and low over/unders are altogether (this is definitely not something to bet on, as the sport always has ebbs and flows), this is a week where it feels a little like trying to buy at the bottom. I think it would be hard to argue against there being a lot more room for error back up. So I’m looking at some overs this week.
Before we jump into them, the recap, as always. We went 2-2 last week, hitting both bets in Rams-Saints but missing the other two plays. The Bears-Falcons under hurt a bit, as it only went over by 2 points in the end, despite a sequence in the second quarter where Cordarrelle Patterson fumbled in Atlanta’s own territory to set up a short 29-yard touchdown drive for the Bears, then Patterson ran the ensuing kickoff back for a touchdown. Rough stuff for under bettors, C-Patt.
Backing the Steelers again proved wrong (again), as the Bengals’ offense had no problem putting up points on their defense, even with T.J. Watt back. That’s just a clear miss.
Then on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys-Giants bets from the Discord went 1-1, but it certainly felt like the path was there to a sweep of that game at halftime. The Cowboys had a big second half, buoyed by the Giants failing to convert what should have been a fairly easy fourth-and-1 from their own 45-yard line. Both teams more or less only got four second-half possessions, and you’ll take that slow pace after a 13-7 score at the break when you’re on the under, but the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first three tries of the second half with the Giants really failing to keep possession.
The 3-3 since last week’s column brings us to 31-23-1 for the season on sides and totals, with those occasional underdog moneylines thrown in. We’re up 6.34 units on the season. Obviously the goal is to keep building on that, so let’s get to the Week 12 plays, and I have eight picks for you this week. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Chicago Bears at New York Jets
Pick: Over 38, -107 (PointsBet)
Playable at more widely available 38.5
It’s very possible this game will feature two QBs making their first starts of 2022, but I love the opportunity that presents. Mike White is in for the Jets, and while White’s limited 2021 sample didn’t suggest we should jump on overs just because he’s under center, there’s a ton of context here.
First, and most obvious, is that Zach Wilson hasn’t played well. White isn’t a lock to be better, but his low-aDOT style led to a solid completion percentage last season, and coming off a game where the Jets punted (10) more times than Wilson completed passes (9), staying on schedule in the passing game does represent a potentially possible development.
The other context is the Jets have gotten better at the skill positions, most notably through the addition of Garrett Wilson, who I have as a budding superstar. Wilson has been held down by the Jets’ run-heavy attack and Zach Wilson’s play, but the young WR might have a shot to make a greater impact on this game with White under center. Elijah Moore also performed well in White’s short stint last season, so there’s some hope we’ll see better play out of him in this one than we’ve seen from him all year. I know that sounds optimistic, but we’ve seen with a guy like D.J. Moore this season how QB changes have really affected his ability to impact the game. The Jets are also expected to get Corey Davis back.
The final piece of context is the Bears’ defense has not been good since the sale at the trade deadline. I’m not crazy optimistic about White, but I do expect the Jets will move the ball at times against this opposing unit.
For the Bears, it’s a bit murkier, and I debated laying the points with the Jets here, but the spread is significant at 7. That suggests pessimism on Fields’ availability, but obviously if he does play, he will help this over bet tremendously because of his playmaking.
If he doesn’t, Trevor Siemian will draw a tough start against a good defense on the road. Still, he’s a veteran, and his insertion into the lineup should mean a more pass-happy attack, which helps offset some of the QB skill difference in terms of overall scoring environment. That could mean pick-sixes, or it could mean Siemian finding what’s starting to look like a pretty decent three-man pass-catching group in Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Chase Claypool for enough big plays to put up some points. I do expect this game to trend toward more plays overall than we might otherwise expect in this matchup, because of the types of quarterbacks that are taking over on both sides and the potential for more passing.