Week 12 Bets + Weekly Specials
Last week we hit our first special in what felt like forever with Josh Jacobs leading the day in rushing with 109 yards.
We had a ton of fun sweats as Demarcus Robinson was leading all WRs in yards heading into the afternoon game. When betting on “the field” he wasn’t who I imagined we would be sweating out.
Once Higgins wrecked that, Josh Palmer gave us somewhat of a sweat as he had over 100 yards receiving.
Isiah Pacheco had the best game of his young career as he had 107 yards rushing on Sunday night to give us the ultimate sweat.
Thanksgiving came and it was an absolute bloodbath for the bets. I actually felt pretty confident that our bets would crush on Thursday, but boy was I wrong.
It felt like one of those very odd days where every team was scoring and was a great day for overs (unless betting on Diggs). Unders do tend to be more profitable and we went 0-4 on them Thursday.
Not only that, but we bet on both Dak or Allen to lead the day in passing yards at +134 combined. All things looked great until Mac Jones had a career day with 382 yards.
Also, we bet on a few sack props, I felt the sack angles I was playing was the one I felt most confident in on the slate and it completely whiffed. We bet Demarcus Lawrence to get a sack in the game and it turned out his other pass-rushing buddies got them instead. Dorance Armstrong got a sack while Micah Parsons got a couple of sacks in this game.
This is probably a friendly reminder to me that when there’s an “edge” in the sack market just hit all of the main guys on that team at like +190. You really only need to hit one or two to have a solid day.
So yeah, worst official betting day of my life so far.
I talked a lot about this earlier on in the year how we don’t want to get too high or too low on a week-to-week basis based on the results, but in reality it’s a lot harder to keep that mindset when you get absolutely obliterated.
The thing that hurts the most when I have a bad week is not that I personally lost money, but I feel a responsibility to Stealing Lines subs to have winning picks. I want everyone to win each and every week and nothing makes me happier than seeing all of you win while we get to watch a sports we love.
It’s a big burden I put on myself each and every week for this and it hurts so much worse to have this type of day.
But this is part of the game. Nothing is a guarantee and sometimes everything won’t go your way.
Only thing we can do now is move forward and try to have the best picks this week.
Week 12 Bets
Trevor Siemian under 184.5 passing yards -115 (BetRivers/Barstool)
Siemian has a career 6.6 YPA, the Bears are in a run heavy offense against the Jets who are 5th in pass D DVOA.
Bears offense was averaging 20.7 attempts per game this year with Fields. Would expect a run heavy induced game plan.
Rain is expected in the forecast.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to 181.5