Week 11 sides and totals
Plus our weekly Underdog winner
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Last week, I finally stopped talking about how annoying over-palooza in Week 2 was, and I decided to finally bet some unders again. Naturally, it was the NFL’s highest-scoring week since Week 2.
I went 4-5 for the week — 1-3 on unders, 1-1 on overs, and 2-1 on sides. Hilariously, I wrote about a game I liked the under for, then while doing research I decided not only that I wasn’t going to take the under, but that I wanted to take the over (rather than my typical “no bet” in similar situations, where additional research muddies my initial position). That one went under.
It hasn’t been my year, but we’ll keep plugging along. In truth, the picks have been 23-25 since the disastrous first two weeks, so it’s not like we’ve lost a ton more ground. (But I would have hoped to have made up some ground by now, especially because October and early November is a period of the NFL season where I’ve traditionally made hay.)
Let’s get to the Week 11 picks, which are sure to be mediocre. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Pick: Under 48, -110 (widely available)
Pick: DET -7.5, -115 (FanDuel)
I took a Detroit under last week and the game absolutely erupted, but that’s probably a bigger ask for Justin Fields in his first game back from a multi-week injury than it seems. Prior to Week 10’s shootout with the Chargers, the Lions went into their Week 9 bye having gone under this number in three straight. They’ve definitely played in some shootouts this year, but they’ve also played in plenty of lower-scoring affairs thanks to a strong rushing attack.
I like Detroit to win this one going away, and do so featuring their talented RB duo, particularly as David Montgomery gets a game against his former team here that could push the Lions into a bit more of a run lean in the second half, as they get him some extra work.