Week 11 sides and totals
Let's keep the winning streak going
Though we only took three plays in this column last week, it was another profitable week, with a 2-1 record, including another underdog winner on the moneyline. I mentioned four leans at the end of the column, and those went 2-2, so it feels like my uncertainty about the week was pretty warranted, and if I’d made all seven potential plays official, we would have just been at 4-3 and spinning wheels a bit.
Last week moved us to 28-20-1 for the season on sides and totals, with those occasional underdog moneylines thrown in. That also puts us in the black in six of the past seven weeks, if I’m not mistaken. Haven’t really had any home run weeks, but stacking profitable outcomes is never bad.
Let’s get to the Week 11 picks. All minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Under 49, -110 (widely available)
If you told me a month ago this over/under would sit just shy of 50, I would have called you crazy. Looking ahead earlier this season and seeing this game on the schedule was one I talked about on at least one podcast months ago, sort of circling it as potentially the least enjoyable game of the season. That was back before we’d all been scarred by this run-heavy season, and were looking for answers, and the Bears and Falcons were the two teams that were far and away more run-heavy than any other offense. This looked like a game that would feature eight possessions on each side as both teams ran clock like their only goal was the end things as quickly as possible.
Things have definitely changed since then, but the expectation of a run-heavy atmosphere has not. Justin Fields has erupted, and both of these defenses are playing terribly, so there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about some scoring in a dome environment. But the bottom line for me is I think we’re being a bit tricked here. Fields has been destroying worlds as a rusher over the past month, including touchdown runs over 60 yards in both of the past two games, and I see no reason that has to slow down, but with little else consistently working offensively, I’m not wildly optimistic about an offense based around that.
The Falcons are going to pound the rock, too. Look, these defenses really are not very good, and there definitely can be some explosive plays in this game. I’m not saying this is a lock. I’m just definitely comfortable taking the under on such a high line here.