Week 10 sides and totals
Plus recapping the high-volume Week 9
I saw a lot to like on the Week 9 slate, and put in 13 official sides or totals, which I think is my most in a week since we started Stealing Lines. In some ways, that felt risky, because we’ve been in the black largely by avoiding the disaster weeks, and then offsetting the small loss weeks with a few big hits.
But obviously, the goal is not to beat some arbitrary marker for the full season, and just coast when we’re out ahead. It’s to have consistently good picks and keep winning money, at any given point. So we went after it, and unfortunately instead of the potential for a big week — and also some risk of a big loss — it was a pretty boring outcome.
I often recap the individual picks here, but there were too many for that this week, and also it felt like a pretty straightforward 6-7 finish. There were a couple big misses, in addition to some solid wins. Both games where I took a side plus a total split. Of the ones that got sweaty, for every frustrating miss (PHI -7.5 was probably the toughest beat of the week), there were a couple that panned out (NE +3.5 and the under in SEA/LAR were both always the right side but had paths to missing late). That NE +3.5 was a game I added in Discord Saturday, and fun fact: I called the 20-17 scoreline in my writeup. There were a few points throughout Sunday where I felt like we had a shot at a big day, then some points where I was worried about a stinker, and then it all pretty much leveled out.
That Eagles game was rough, if I had to single one out. They left a ton of points on the field, including three failed 2-point conversions, and then they gave up a fumble return touchdown to bring Jacksonville back into it, but still had a shot to win by 8 with a late field goal that they missed. Even though that game did actually wind up with the ball in Jacksonville’s possession deep in Philly territory with a chance for a lead inside the final two minutes, anyone who had the Jaguars +7.5 knows they got super fortunate to suck out there.
Anyway, picks this year have been a blast. At this point last year, I had made 53 official bets on sides and totals, whereas this year we’re at 77. It’s been fun to let things fly a little bit, and we do sit solidly in the black at +4.23 units on a 40-33-4 record. My strongest category has been taking overs, where we sit 15-7-1. We’re down on unders, but still profitable on totals overall, and also slightly profitable on sides when you factor in the underdog moneyline bets.
Week 10 looks a little less fun than Week 9 did. Setting aside the Munich game (neutral field), we have 12 other games, and in exactly half of them, the road team is favored by more than a field goal, which are never my favorite lines. Big road favorites are always a tough group to chase, but it’s also always tough to bet on an inferior team to show up at home and compete with a big road favorite, because these teams generally suck — that’s why they are reasonably big underdogs at home. Sometimes they do show up, other times they don’t and you feel like an idiot for backing some horrendous franchise against an actually good team.
Could I dig into the data and the matchups and find some edge to pursue? Sure, but that’s never really been my betting philosophy, mostly because I think that kind of an “edge” isn’t really an edge at all, and is baked in. We joke about how much stuff is baked in, and you’re always seeking stuff that isn’t, which is why my philosophy is typically more about understanding small-sample data so I can fade it where I think a team’s true talent level is either higher or lower than the market believes.
But these are situations where I generally agree we’re dealing with a “have” versus a “have not” and so there’s nothing that the market is missing. The outcomes just come down to whether the good team doesn’t travel well that week — which happens to even the best teams — and whether a bad team might play better at home, which also happens a decent amount.
Anyway, I As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Over 41.5, -110 (bet365)
This obviously isn’t the first time I’ve put a little faith in the Broncos, but I still think the market is overstating their first month. Just as a recap, in Bo Nix’s first two NFL games, he played on the road at Mike Macdonald’s defense — which hasn’t proven to be great since but probably had some interesting quirks to throw at the rookie in the head coach’s first game — and then at home against the Steelers. Two weeks later, he played the Jets on the road in a downpour.
Since Week 5, the lowest combined point total for a Broncos game is 39, and though they only put up 10 points in a blowout loss in Baltimore last week, they put up 319 yards of offense and had four different drives end with turnover on downs inside Baltimore territory, with two coming in the red zone.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have integrated DeAndre Hopkins seamlessly, and have put up 28, 27, and 30 since the bye. Both of these offenses like to play with some tempo, and play volume should be there. The Chiefs are better against the run defensively, and Sean Payton is willing to call a pass-first game in a spot like this.
I’m definitely cautious of how the Chiefs can run the ball and win some lower-scoring games, and also how the Broncos could just bottom out offensively at any given time, but this is a low total and I do think there are outs for Nix and the Broncos to rebound a little after last week and actually push the Chiefs a little, as well as outs where the Chiefs do something like Baltimore did last week and put up 30+ or maybe even 40 in a blowout win. The weather is expected to be great in Kansas City tomorrow, as well, with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the low 60s during the game.