Week 10 Prop Bets + Weekly Specials
It’s so crazy that we are already halfway through the regular season. This means it’s time to do some self analyzing on how my props and bets have fared so far.
Last week we looked at some of the futures and how they are performing. Needless to say I’m extremely thrilled with how the results have turned out so far.
It’s really easy to see scenarios where we absolutely crush the futures market and nail multiple longshots in different categories (especially if you followed my free thread on Twitter before Stealing Lines was created).
We’ve also see massive success on the weekly side of things. We’ve had three individual weeks really prop up the total results, but those weeks make up for multiple weeks where we sit around even.
If there’s one thing for those who have followed my work or have got to know my personality for a bit there’s a trait that becomes apparent: stubborness. I like to think that it’s a strength of mine that I use to my advantage a lot of times to go against the grain and continue to believe my priors.
But it also has it’s flaws. And us betting on Kyle Pitts and Elijah Moore every single week has become the downside of this.
A big part of my process is leaning extremely heavy on talent profiles of players and almost ignoring situation to an extent. I’m a firm believer that talent will outshine most situations and talent helps shape the situation.
But this year we’ve seen some players unable to shake those situations and I’ve continued to lean into my priors and bet on them each week assuming things would change or that due to their talent, they would be able to overcome their situation.
Sometimes the writing is on the wall and it’s okay to pivot off a player until they can prove they can perform in that given situation. That’s something I learned the hard way this year and it’s reflected in some of my results.
Across the board I’m profitable in all areas of prop betting except one area: alternate lines. And a lot has to do with Kyle Pitts and Elijah Moore. I bet their alternate lines on nine different occasions and only once did we even hit the minimum part of their ladder (Pitts in week 3).
It’s resulted in us being down 8.69 units on alternate lines. Now heading into the year I knew betting these lines were harder to be profitable than normal props, but I figured well-researched analysis in targeting specific players and matchups that it would be profitable.
Boy was I wrong. Even if some of those Elijah Moore and Kyle Pitts lines hit it wouldn’t have been enough. We also had on four different occasions that we missed the beginning of a ladder by one yard. And sure it would’ve helped a little, but the reality is at best we would have broken even if everything went right.
We certainly could’ve and probably did run bad on some aspects of this, but after nine weeks of betting this it’s clear this is likely not the best strategy going forward. It’s something that I will continue to use, but when doing so it will be much more infrequent and also for smaller unit sizes.
It’s crazy just how much better we would be doing on the season if we eliminate these ladders, but it’s okay. It’s one of those things that has caught my eye after looking through this and making me more disciplined in what and who I decide to bet on each week.
It’s the self analyzing of my own process like this where I can see some of my shortcomings and adjust based on that. While the goal is to be as amazing as possible in all areas of betting, there is a process that comes with being a great bettor and that is through these learning experiences like this.
I felt the need to share that with all of you because I want to be as transparent as possible in everything I do and my journey to becoming better as a bettor.
My main goal here is to not only help you make money betting on a game we love to watch, but also to make you a sharper bettor yourself.
Self analysis is the pillar to vastly improving your own process in betting (or really anything you do) and I hate to say I “enjoy” seeing my shortcomings, but it gets me excited about clearly seeing where I can improve and taking the steps to become better.
One thing I want to do is be an open book as much as I can to Stealing Lines subscribers, so if you ever have any questions, comments or concerns for me I encourage you to reach out to me. Hopefully I can be a helping hand as much as possible.
Enough of that and now into some of the bets we are playing.
Week 10 Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers under 238.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars)
Not sure why this line is so high.
7 of 8 starters to play against the cowboys this year have gone under this number.
Starting QBs have averaged 177.5 passing yards per game against the Cowboys this year.
They’ve played some bad QBs, but still are 3rd in Pass D DVOA.
Romeo Doubs is out while Amari Rodgers is questionable now making an already weak WR room potentially even weaker.
Rodgers has been under in 5 of 9 games this year. Love fading Rodgers in this spot especially at this price.
Risk 1.545 units to win 1.5 units
Play to 230.5