Week 1: Weekly Specials Bets
This is my favorite part of the week as we get to take some long shots to lead the league in passing/rushing/receiving yards.
This was the area of betting in which I had the most success last year. Simply by playing certain profiles we can really gain an edge by betting those players at value.
Based on my research from 2016-2021 I was able to find what the range for each of these positions was on a weekly basis. By understanding what these players need to hit in order to win, really helps us eliminate bad profiles that don’t have upside on a weekly basis.
Here was the range for passing yards we are looking for:
Low end - 388 yards
Median - 416 yards
High end - 517 yards
Here was the range for rushing yards we are looking for:
Low end - 142 yards
Median - 158 yards
High end - 253 yards
He was the range we are for receiving yards we are looking for:
Low end - 158 yards
Median - 175 yards
High end - 253 yards
Ideally we want to shoot for the medium outcomes and for players who can hit that. There is going to be weeks in which no players in a certain market hit even the low end outcome and win, while there’s going to be weeks in which multiple players hit within this range and lose.
Our goal is to have a good process in this and find players who can individually hit this mark. If we bet Kadarius Toney to have the most receiving yards and he has 180 receiving yards, but someone like Ja’Marr Chase comes over the top with 195 yards it was still great process. That type of variance is going to happen. If we get guys to hit the higher end of these ranges, it will become more likely those bets hit that week.
When betting Weekly Specials we need to approach it with a long-term mindset. We know most weeks we are probably not going to hit any specials. And that’s totally fine! We really only need to hit 3-5 of these over the course of the season to become profitable.
It’s important also to be wary of unit sizings when it comes to these. Last thing we want is for us to go on a four week losing streak and then suddenly start lowering your units and then the fifth week that bet hits. It’s important to stay consistent every week with these because we really don’t know when they will hit!
We have put plays in the Discord that the lines have now moved in our favor and are no longer playable. It’s extremely important if you want to maximize your subscription with us to be in our Discord to get our plays right when we release them. These are some of the plays that we played in the Discord, but are no longer playable due to the lines moving:
Julio Jones most receiving yards +6000 (now +4300)
Kadarius Toney most receiving yards +11000 (now +6000)
Derek Carr most passing yards +1600 (DraftKings) and then again at +3400(Fanduel) (Now +1300)
If you are subscribed and want to get in our Discord, use the link you got in the welcome email to join.
Plays of the Week
Elijah Mitchell most rushing yards on Sunday +2300 (Fanduel)
(Played in Discord at +2200)
Mitchell is one of the few running backs capable of hitting this as he lead the league 3 different times last year.
Niners are 7 point favorites against the Bears who were 26th in explosive run rate allowed last year.
Mitchell was 5th in YPG as a rookie last year.
To be honest most weeks it might just be Taylor or Henry that wins, but Mitchell is in that second tier of RBs capable of hitting it due to his efficiency in the offense and the projected volume.
Risk .3 units to win 6.6 units
Play to +2000