Week 1 sides and totals
Breaking down the best early-season bets
We’re back, baby. But before we jump all the way in, I need to apologize for not getting a post up before today. Hopefully you got in on the team futures Dalton posted for me in the Discord, as I didn’t manage my time well amid the fantasy obligations and a trip to Vegas for my final drafts and the two opening games.
If I’m being honest, my motivation being more fantasy-focused and neglecting betting stuff was definitely influenced by us having a tough 2023 season at Stealing Lines (in addition to a lot of the fantasy stuff going really well). But that’s not an excuse for waiting this long to check in.
From Day 1, we’ve been clear that Stealing Lines guarantees nothing, and we’re a couple of guys who are excited to give you our picks and welcome you to tail us. It was a blast when we were crushing in 2022, but certainly got a little tougher last year. For me, 2024’s not about some big promotions or trying to add new subs. It’s about trying to get back on the right page for our core readers who are still hanging around. For me specifically, and I think probably also for Dalton, it’s about proving something to myself, that there’s value in this. I would never want to be doing any kind of content if I didn’t think there was value add.
By way of a recap on my sides and totals from last year, I had the really tough start with game totals then never recovered. I went 0-9 in Week 2 with an 0-7 record that week on unders, after I (correctly) identified in Week 1 that the 2022 scoring environment was back in 2023, but it didn’t pay off in Week 2, which became the one outlier high-scoring week for the first few months. The great thing about that timing was I questioned everything after that bloodbath, leaning into overs in the immediate aftermath, which I went 2-8 on from Week 3 to Week 9 (I only took five unders in that stretch, and went 2-3). I didn’t have the conviction to stick with my early analysis. Never wrong, just early. But also wrong. Both ways.
For the season, I wound up 8-16 on overs and 9-15 on unders, for a 17-31 record on game totals. As you can see, I was more or less .500 outside the Week 2 and post-Week 2 macro-take debacle.
Meanwhile, I went 29-21-1 on spread picks, and 6-7 on underdog moneylines, chalking in profitable on both sides there. I clawed back from the early double-digit hole but then had a tough stretch in Weeks 15 and 16, and never did get back to profitable, finishing the season at -10.3 units.
It was a humbling season. But we move forward. And for me, there are positives I’ve taken away, driven in part by conversations with some of you, who seemed more optimistic about my results than I was. My expectations will always be high, so failing to get the results I was after last year has been tough. But I guess I can see that it wasn’t a total failure, and parts of 2023 were further validation in the way I’ve been doing things.
Believe me, I’ll be focused on team-based bets this year, especially in the early going. We hit on Kansas City in the opener, and then I didn’t play the second game, but we enter the main part of Week 1 at 1-0. I have six more picks for us today. Let’s get off to a fast start.
As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Pick: CHI -3.5, -118 (FanDuel)
After a massive offseason, Chicago opens the season at home, as Caleb Williams will make his NFL debut. I liked what I saw out of Chicago in the preseason, and love how they have constructed their offense around Caleb. They should also have a plus defense this year.
On the flip side, Tennessee also had a big offseason, but they are a team I’m down on relative to market. I do think coaching will help a little, but I just don’t think Will Levis is very good, is what it comes down to. DeAndre Hopkins also sounds likely to be limited, and at his age and after missing most of August, I wouldn’t expect him to be hyper-efficient. Hopkins has done far more on a per-route basis even in recent years than Calvin Ridley, so his injury is a real blow, as I have him as the team’s best receiving weapon, even at his age. I don’t think Ridley is bad, but he does strike me as one of those WRs who isn’t quite as productive as people seem to believe he is, and now he’s working with a QB that I think will miss some open throws and hurt his wide receivers’ efficiency, so it’s not a great combo.