Week 1 sides and totals
We officially made it
It’s been a long time coming, but we are days away from real, competitive NFL football, and the weekly cycle starting back up and not stopping again for several months. I am freakin’ jacked.
Before I get to the picks I’m going to start with this year, I want to go back to some goals I set out to accomplish in 2022, and review my picks and whether I accomplished those. In my Week 1 sides and totals column last year, I took a look at my results over at OddsChecker for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Some of the key takeaways were as follows:
I had a bias toward the under and was more profitable in that area, going 29-26-1 on under bets and 16-19 on overs across 2020 and 2021
I had a bias toward favorites, going 25-25-1 on favorites but 8-1 on only nine bets taking the points with the underdog (in addition to 7-3 taking the underdog on the moneyline, for a combined 15-4 picking underdogs)
From a timeline perspective, my results were skewed to areas of the calendar:
In 2020, I was 7-9-1 over the first three weeks, then had a massive October, going 15-2 from Week 4 to Week 7. I went 24-21 from Week 8 to Week 17 before a putrid 1-9 playoff stretch (had a lot of fun betting against the Bucs’ run that year ).
In 2021, I was 2-4 over the first two weeks, then went 29-15 from Week 3 to Week 13, including a 16-6 stretch from Week 7 through Week 11. I similarly closed 2021 poorly, finishing 7-16 from Week 14 through Week 18 (I didn’t make postseason picks last season).
As I considered ways to play it in 2022, I had a couple different thoughts. With regards to my bias toward taking favorites, I did find it interesting that my underdog bets hit at such a high clip, and that it might have been indicative of a strength of bet element that wasn’t going to necessarily scale:
The strong (albeit small sample) results when picking underdogs both with the points and on the moneyline coupled with my bias toward favorites suggests the spots where I felt enough confidence to take the underdog may have been a signal of a stronger bet. I’m not sure that means I should be looking to take substantially more underdogs, but rather trying to identify those spots where I feel strongly that an underdog is mispriced as a potential edge.
Regarding my results following a typical timeline, where I felt like my biggest edge existed after a couple of weeks’ worth of games but before the data and models got more robust late in the season, I had this to say:
As for the timeline results, I find it pretty interesting that I had a lot of success after we had some data but not a robust enough sample for most advanced models, meaning after just a few weeks of results. While I look at a lot of data, what I think makes me a successful fantasy analyst is an ability to synthesize potential outcomes that didn’t actually occur and think probabilistically about how things might have otherwise gone. That means there is definitely an element of feel to my process, where I have to be aware of potential biases but am in some cases betting that what we’ve seen is not a reflection of what a team actually is, and is reflected in poor pricing in the market.
To the extent this thesis might be accurate, it would make a lot of sense that I find success when data is not quite robust yet, but we’ve seen some things from these teams.
All of that is preamble to consider my 2022 results — specifically on sides and totals — which were as follows. All of these are small samples, but they continue to build on my trends from prior years, as I consider ways to improve my process:
54-44-3 for +6.34 units and a 5.83% ROI
With scoring being down, and totals following, it was tougher to find great spots to take unders. I had a bias to the over, betting it 27 times and going 11-15-1, while taking the under 20 times for a 12-8 record. Obvious opportunity for improvement there given my previous success betting unders.
I continued my bias to betting favorites, going 17-16-2 on 35 favorite bets. I was 14-7-1 betting on home favorites, but 3-9-1 betting on road favorites, a potential significant leak to consider.
I was 6-4 taking the points with underdogs, and a very strong 8-1 when I took the underdog on the moneyline. This builds off very strong 2020 and 2021 trends taking underdogs, which remained my most profitable segment, likely in part because I am pickier with those selections, taking just 19 underdogs against the 35 favorites.
In terms of timeline, I followed a similar trend to past years:
I opened 2-5 in Week 1, but then got hot a little earlier than usual, posting a winning record in eight of the next nine weeks through Week 10. I went 26-15 during that nine-week stretch, before closing the regular season 17-19-2 from Week 11 through Week 18. I did have a successful playoff run at 9-5.
I’m always skeptical of streaks and trends, because things have a way of ending. But to the extent this review could provide you with something actionable, the clearest trend in my three years of tracked bets is the best time to tail me has always been between about Week 4 until about Week 9. I’ve had a win percentage of at least 63% across those weeks all three years I’ve done this publicly, with a total win/loss of 55-25-1. To be crystal clear, I am in no way saying to bet your mortgage on my picks those weeks.
Let’s get to the Week 1 picks! I’m going with a handful of picks this week, not wanting to get too aggressive right out of the gate, but also a bit cautious of how wild the 2022 season was. There may be opportunity in some spots, but we also go into 2023 not knowing a lot in terms of how the various teams might respond to some of the major macro changes when the games start mattering this week. And to be clear, I do think there’s a wide range of possibilities regarding what we might see early this year, which should create some real opportunities for those paying attention and able to parse the signal.
As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Over 52, -110 (DraftKings)
There’s no way I could go into the opening Thursday night game without some action, but to be honest I haven’t loved the numbers. Then the Travis Kelce injury news moved the total down a couple points, where I’d already been leaning toward playing the over ever at the higher 54.5 number, so we have an in.
Obviously the potential to not have Kelce healthy is a concern for the Kansas City offense, but I’m still optimistic because this is a team that throws with such intent. In 2022, the Chiefs’ +10.8% Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) was first in the NFL, and made them one of only two teams over +6%. In 2021, they also led the league at +9.7%, and again were one of only two teams over +6%. In 2020, you guessed it, they led the league at +9.5% (though I have to raise my cherry-picked cut-off to +6.5% to say they were one of only two teams that eclipsed that rate).
Each year, the team that was up closest to them has been different (Bills, Bucs, Bengals). But while those teams have spiked in one recent season and then settled back down in the +5% range in other years, the one constant has been the Chiefs posting a league-high PROE, giving us a strong multiyear sample this team is going to throw with intent.
Additionally, lead RB Isiah Pacheco played just one preseason snap after two offseason surgeries (hand, shoulder), and wore a noncontact jersey for much of training camp, finally shedding that in late August. The Chiefs also kept just three RBs on their initial 53-man roster — Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and receiving specialist Jerick McKinnon — while seven WRs made the team. An approach that sees the Chiefs run heavily out of the gate doesn’t seem likely, even without Kelce. Anything can happen in a one-game sample, but I’d argue their PROE data is tied more closely to Patrick Mahomes than their star TE.
The Chiefs’ pass rate is the key for this over, because the Lions are willing participants in a potential shootout. In 2022, 12 of their 17 games hit 49 or more total points, and five of those went over 60. Detroit scored the fifth most points in the league while also giving up the fourth most, and no team’s games featured more combined scoring than the 51.8 average of Lions games.
The Chiefs were second on that list, though, at 50.9 total points per game. Not only do they pass with intent, they are very good, and they naturally push their opponents when they start to light up the scoreboard.
There’s some concern that with the Chiefs missing Chris Jones on the defensive line, the Lions might try to run the ball and control the clock a little bit, intentionally avoiding the shootout I just described. I hear that, but there’s a real question of how effective that can even be. They can’t keep Mahomes off the field forever, and while their defense might be a little bit improved this year, it’s a tall task to expect them to perform well in Week 1 in Kansas City.
And I’m not even sure I buy that approach for Detroit anyway. Expectations are higher this year for them, and maybe that leads to more conservative decisions, but there’s something to be said about their whole ethos being to attack. Not for nothing, but Dan Campbell strikes me as the type of coach that isn’t going to go down without throwing some haymakers in this island game to open the season. Even if they try to run early, if they are down by double digits at any point in the second half, I expect them to attack through the air with their plethora of receiving weapons, including star No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie do-everything back Jahmyr Gibbs. If they manage to hold a lead for big portions of this game — which is implied to be more possible by the other part of the Kelce injury movement, a closer spread — we know the Chiefs will press and go extremely pass heavy.
It could be said that the Lions got over the hump in 2022 because they first showed a willingness to go toe-to-toe with anybody. Before they finished the year on an epic 8-2 run, they started it 1-6. But in those first seven games, they had one-possession losses of 3 or 4 points to each of the Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, and Dolphins, all of whom became eventual playoff teams. The lowest-scoring game of that bunch featured 52 total points.
It’s always risky to make multiyear assumptions about approach. It’s possible the Lions’ acquisition of David Montgomery foretells a goal of developing more balance in their offense, with more of a ground-and-pound approach at times. But I have a hard time seeing that manifest for 60 minutes in this season opener. The Lions are on a bigger stage now, and they got there because of a willingness to throw caution into the wind and play aggressive football. The Chiefs should push them in this one, but crucially for this bet, the Lions should be willing and able to push them back.