Three players we are betting big on this year
This is going to be a meat and potatoes post with minimal intro.
This will be the last “season long” post you will see from me. The rest are going to be our weekly prop bets.
I want to highlight three players with some commentary that we have bet on big in different markets that I think the market is undervaluing their talent level.
Garrett Wilson
Wilson won rookie of the year and proved he could command targets at an elite level as a rookie. What made this potentially more impressive was he did this with a platoon of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White at quarterback last season.
Garrett has such an incredible skillset that really has no weaknesses in his game. He’s great in all three areas of the field, is already one of the best route runners in the game, and also can create yards after the catch!
We constantly see rookies who perform well do even better in their second year and this should be the case for Wilson. Not only is he going into the offseason knowing how the NFL works, but he will be getting a major upgrade in Aaron Rodgers at QB.
It’s very easy to make the case that in 2024 or 2025 that we are talking about Garrett Wilson as a consensus top five wide receiver. He just has that talent level to do it and now is not going to be held down by some of the worst quarterback play in the entire league.
Adding all these things together it’s become a popular opinion to have Wilson as the next breakout candidate to make that next elite jump and it’s totally justified.
The betting markets have seem to not identify this elite upside he has and we can take advantage.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Written right before the update that JSN is expected to play week 1! Let’s go!
In terms of pure wide receiver prospects coming out into the league in recent memory, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is near the top of the list.
While playing alongside Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in college, two of the best up and coming receivers in the league, he outproduced both of them despite being a full year younger.
He commanded 22.7% of the teams targets as a sophomore and had 1,606 yards receiving!
JSN’s only potential weakness in his game is the fact that he hasn’t played outside of the slot really much in college, but the thing is with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf alongside him he won’t need to.
And I don’t really buy the fact him being a slot only receiver means he can’t play outside. The last time we had a mega producer in college alongside other elite talent that fell outside the top 15 in the draft due to him being a “slot only” guy was Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has proved that he can play outside but he was just never asked to in college because Ja’Marr Chase was catching bodies that season.
My comp for JSN has been Justin Jefferson coming out of college. Guys who seemingly can do it all as a receiver but are undervalued due to perceived role or lack of experience to be versatile wide receivers.
It may seem lofty to have that kind of comparision and in no means am I saying JSN will be as good as Jefferson (I’m also not saying he won’t be), but their situations coming out of college into the NFL couldn’t be more similar.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that by the end of the year JSN is the best wide receiver in Seattle and has one of the better rookie seasons in recent memory.
The fact that it’s a crowded wide receiver room as well as potentially missing a game due to a wrist injury are only thing keep his perception this low for the season.
Betting on a talent like him is too hard to pass up.
Kyle Pitts
You’re not going to be able to stop me from believing in Pitts.
His profile coming out of college combined with his historical rookie season should leave no doubt that Pitts is an extremely talented player.
When we look at the context of what happened last year it becomes clear literally everything went wrong for Pitts.
The Falcons turned into a run heavy juggernaut with the 7th highest run rate of the past 20 years.
If we look at the games in which Mariota started last year they ran at the 2nd highest rate since 2000! Pitts didn’t play any games with Ridder due to a season ending knee injury.
No other player in the entire NFL had worse targets than Pitts as only 59.3% of the balls thrown his way were deemed catchable.
What’s encouraging about Pitts usage though is this is where he finished amongst all tight ends last year:
first in targets per route run
first in unrealized air yards (only played 10 games!!)
second in target share
That’s elite usage within the context of the offense. Nothing should change for Pitts this year in terms of being used a lot when they are throwing the ball.
The main two questions become: how good is Desmond Ridder? and how much will they throw the ball?
Regardless if you think that Desmond Ridder is bad and that the Falcons will run the ball a ton, it’s still extremely improbable that the situation is as bad as it was last year.
We saw the Falcons throw the ball 25% more when Ridder was in last season and Drake London was able to produce 83.3 yards per game with him at quarterback.
Pitts lead all Falcons players in targets last year when on the field and should be a major part of their passing attack.
If Ridder is able to at least not completely miss Pitts wide open for 70 yard touchdowns this year then the talent of Pitts can naturally rise in this offense.
And if Ridder is better than we think? Pitts could explode (just like Juju’s knees).
Best bets for these players
Garrett Wilson
Writeup from Discord
While I was doing some Wilson bets and ironically Ben also put the following as a Bold Prediction in Stealing Signals: “Garrett Wilson will score 14 TDs this year” You can see the rest of Ben’s explanation here:
Historically weight correlates to touchdown scoring ability as the heavier WRs have tended to score more. But Ben made a good point to me about how the changing of rules has allowed smaller and quicker receivers to thrive as defenders have less leeway to be physical with receivers.
Wilson is exactly the type of player who can benefit from this. We’ve seen Rodgers be the most efficient touchdown thrower of all-time with a 6.2% touchdown rate. This has elevated top WRs he has played against to consistently high TD totals.
Davante Adams had scored double digit touchdowns in five of his last six seasons with Rodgers at QB and leading the league with 18 in 2020.
Based on the profile of Wilson he looks to be a true superstar WR who can be in the same tier as a guy like Adams this season.
We’ve seen Rodgers pass the ball at a very high frequency at the goal line. Here is where he ranks in pass % within the five yard line each of the past three years:
5th (2020)
1st (2021)
2nd (2022)
He’s constantly looking to keep the ball in his hands at the goal one and Wilson will be a major benefactor.
Garrett Wilson 10+ TDs +210 (Fanduel)
Risk 1 unit to win 2.1 units
Play to +180