Super Bowl sides and totals

A pick for The Big Game

If you’re in Discord, you already know where I stand on the Super Bowl, and I offered some thoughts on the pick there.

If the Bills won, we would've been on Buffalo as well. The Eagles have run extremely hot on fumble and turnover luck, and they also had a favorable path to the Super Bowl. While Jalen Hurts played his best game of the season in the NFC Championship, I want to fade a team so dependent on the ground game in a spot like this. I'm not sure where this line will close, but I like KC here at open.

At the time, I took KC -1.5 at -112 on DraftKings, and they still sit -1.5, but at -105 today. You can get -1 at some books, as well, like Caesars, ESPNBet, and bet365.

I just wanted to break this down a little more, so let’s dig into it.

Basically, I’m seeing this idea that the Eagles are so dominant as a rushing offense that they can win this game on the ground, especially given a matchup that seems to work in their favor. And I do believe they will run the ball effectively, perhaps even with Saquon Barkley breaking off one of his long touchdown runs. It may even be enough for them to win.

But the main point I want to drive home in this writeup is I think we’re in a unique spot where people don’t recognize how fragile that style of play actually is. The Eagles have a 10:0 turnover differential in their three playoff games, wins over a relatively weak slate of opponents in the Packers, Rams, and Commanders. It’s obviously a good thing that they protect the ball, but extreme stretches of positive turnover differential is the kind of thing that also goes down as including at least some positive variance, and that’s why it’s something we typically want to be fading, just as a general rule.

Additionally, the Chiefs are great at this stuff, too. The last time the Eagles turned the ball over was in Week 16. The Chiefs have only one turnover since Week 11 (the lost fumble in the AFC Championship game). There may be a turnover or even a couple in the Super Bowl, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t see one from either team.

That’s pretty notable because again, the Eagles have looked more dominant than they’ve actually been through the playoffs in large part due to turnovers. The still almost lost the Rams game, where in a 1-point game, Kyren Williams lost a fumble on the first snap of the fourth quarter, which set the Eagles up at the Rams’ 10-yard line. After Philadelphia was held to a field goal, Matthew Stafford fumbled and set up the Eagles at the Rams’ 38. The Eagles did give up a safety in that game, which is essentially a turnover, but again this is a game where the Rams got down to the Eagles’ 13-yard line with a 3rd-and-2, down 6 points, with just 1:14 left. Stafford took a sack that pushed them to 4th-and-11 and they went out with a whimper, but that game was almost lost despite Barkley rushing for 205 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries, and Jalen Hurts adding a 7-70-1 rushing line.

They had similar rushing success against the Commanders and Packers, and also got four turnovers in each of those games, including a fumbled kickoff return in each that set them up deep in opponent territory. In all three games, they’ve not just dominated the turnover battle, but field position off turnovers has been massive. They won those games more comfortably, of course, but we’re talking between 9 and 12 total possessions for Green Bay and Washington in those games (depending on if you count the kickoff returns as possessions, as well as things like a kneeldown before half), so between a third and closer to half of all opportunities to score were lost to turnover.

Does the Eagles’ defense deserve credit for that? Of course. But as far as turnovers go, fumbles are the higher variance option, and five of the six turnovers in the past two rounds have been fumbles, with just one interception. Additionally, fumbles recovered is a high-variance stat, and the Eagles put the ball on the ground twice against the Rams, but recovered both, while they recovered for turnovers five of the six fumbles Washington and Los Angeles put on the ground (in the Green Bay game, the Packers threw three interceptions and fumbled three times, but lost just one, so the Eagles weren’t necessarily the beneficiaries of fumble luck as much in that game, but it didn’t matter because of how Jordan Love and the passing game struggled).

It sounds a little like I’m trying to split everything down and take away credit from the Eagles, which is not the case. If what I’m trying to say were simple, it would be easily baked into the line. Most would probably argue it already is.

What I’m trying to convey is there are different ways those games could have gone, and that the Eagles have looked much more dominant as a rushing team largely because the wind of variance has also been behind their sails. It hasn’t just been turnovers — they had two drives extended in the first half against Washington due to penalties, one that was unnecessary out of bounds, and another the broadcast team and referee assistant agreed was a clearly missed hold on Barkley on a fourth down — but turnovers are the easiest thing to point to here. I know there are a lot of people who also believe the Chiefs get the variance in every game, particularly from the refs, but the truth as I see it is there are 6-10 key high-variance moments in every football game, and right now even when half of them go Kansas City’s way, the public is inclined to hyper-fixate on them (and ignore that some also went against the Chiefs). In other words, if KC got the variance against the Bills that the Eagles did against the Commanders, I think the whole football world might have burned down. They did probably come out on top against Buffalo, but they weren’t getting anything close to what Philadelphia came up with.

Which again is no fault of the Eagles’, and their fans should be stoked things went their way. They may have won that game anyway. Probably that’s the case. But the point is that perception right now sides with the Chiefs getting lucky, and reality is the exact opposite, as far as how I see it.

And because of that, people have the wrong idea about how dominant the Eagles can be with their rushing attack. The example I used last week was the Commanders getting past the Lions despite being absolutely gashed by Detroit’s rushing offense, because Washington got the variance in that game. This is the enigma that has been the Baltimore Ravens for years now, where they look absolutely unbeatable as a dominant rushing offense when they get the variance to go their way or at least be neutral, but if they are on the wrong end of a few breaks, they sometimes look lost. It’s weird how hit or miss they can be; they look like the best team in football for stretches every year but then run into a matchup with a tough playoff defense that can do a better job of stifling their run and putting them in difficult down-and-distances, and suddenly things are a lot different.

And that’s really the crux of the issue with relying so much on the run. If you go look at the Eagles’ possessions against the Rams, for example, you see that even though it was hitting in major ways, there were those key series where the down-and-distance got trickier, and they often wind up punting as a result. When they got deep in the red zone, and the field got more cramped, they had a tough time converting TDs, as well. Obviously, they do have the tush push, but that’s not always going to come into play.

The way I see it, the key to this game for the Eagles is actually A.J. Brown. He’s still one of the five or so very best wide receivers in the NFL, and Hurts played probably his best game of the season against the Commanders, which gives plenty of hope the Eagles can throw when they need to. If they are able to do that, through Brown and/or DeVonta Smith, you’re talking about a different dynamic. Now we’re not talking about such a run-dependent offense. There’s no strong reason to believe they can’t do that, to be clear.

I also believe when you don’t cultivate it at all during the season, it’s tough to switch on in the biggest moments, especially against a defense like the Chiefs and a coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo, which is a way different animal than what the Commanders threw at them defensively. If you’re inclined to support the Chiefs, you can note that both Andy Reid and Spags are known to be gameplan wizards at times, and obviously this is a situation where everyone involved gets an extra week. That could also work in favor of the Eagles, but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is widely believed to be taking the Saints’ job after the game, and you worry about distractions there, and more broadly I’m just strongly favoring Reid and Spags in their fifth trip to the Super Bowl in six years to have some strings to pull. They are ready for this moment; for them, this has become routine.

Obviously, you also have Mahomes, the best clutch-down quarterback of his or possibly any generation. His numbers on third and fourth downs, and late in games, are astonishing. The Chiefs have also just been getting healthy as the playoffs have rolled around, and are arguably in their best position offensively all season after this two-week break. You don’t have to look far to find reasons to believe in them to win.

I do still think the Eagles can win this game, to be clear. The uncertainty schematically after a two-week break opens up a lot of possibilities on both sides. Like I said, if the Eagles actually prioritize the pass a little more, much of my thesis from above is rendered moot. Hurts is coming off a strong passing game, and they are good enough to be a balanced offense that can just play with the Chiefs. They have a ton of talent.

I always try to think about what I might be missing with any bet, and that’s the answer there. But any bet is a probability-based decision, and in this case, I just don’t think the probabilities are enough on the Eagles’ side to justify a line that is essentially a toss up. To me, the Chiefs should be favored by about or perhaps at least 3 points; that’s the number where it would be tough for me to pick a side.

But as I’ve written up, I believe in a year where rushing offense was back, that the market is missing something here. I know it's cliche, but this idea the Eagles run dominance is going to help ensure a win is — to me — way more fragile than a lot of people seem to realize. I think things have gone their way, but most of those events are uncorrelated to what might go their way in this game. They might still get the variance here, and that would be huge, obviously. But they’ll probably need it, because the Chiefs have the QB advantage, and are an incredibly well-coached team, with plenty of defensive talent, and an overall better roster than a lot believe. They also have a long history now of playing up in the biggest spots, and they are not going to roll over in this game. If the Eagles win, I expect it to be close late, whereas I’ve seen some comments that basically say their run dominance is going to equate to a clear victory. I just find that to not be stooped in much reality, personally. Or at least the things I believe we should care about when trying to handicap a game.

Hopefully we get a good game either way! I’m excited for it. Good luck wherever your rooting allegiances land. And if you don’t hear from me for a little bit, it’s been a pleasure picking games for you this year.