Stealing Lines is adding NBA props!
We're expanding our offerings as part of your current subscription
The football season has been good to us, but we’re already more than halfway through. It’s hard to imagine it’s already Week 11.
But we’re excited to add a new service to our existing offerings that will extend beyond the NFL season. The best part is it requires no additional obligation for you, and will just be tacked on to any normal Stealing Lines subscription.
Adding an NBA offering is something we’ve been working on for a while behind the scenes, even since before our launch, and we’re excited to bring on Mike Braude to lead that charge. I’ve known and worked with Mike even longer than I have with Dalton, dating back to my early days at RotoViz where Mike was a highly respected football contributor. His fantasy football analysis is somewhat limited, though, by his bigger contribution to the space — owning and operating the Apex Fantasy Football League site.
But Mike also has a big passion for NBA props, and Dalton and he have been communicating on that dating back to last season. His analytical rigor has transferred over to that space where he’s been highly successful, and has some particularly interesting angles he likes to attack. Dalton had some more thoughts on that in our Discord announcement which you should check out for more info on Braude’s NBA chops, as well as information on our NBA notification system in Discord, and how to opt in for announcements when plays go live.
We’re very excited to add Mike to the team and be able to expand our offerings in this way! To reiterate and offer some candid thoughts, while we’re not sure what the future of our pricing and offerings might look like — that’s obviously something Dalton and I have discussed a lot, since Day 1 — what we’re doing today is just adding more to the current subscription at no extra cost, and giving those of you interested in NBA an opportunity to get to know Mike and his process.
Most of Mike’s plays will likely come in Discord, owing to the nightly nature of NBA and how quickly the markets can move. He also focuses on the prop markets, so most if not all of his picks will come on players, rather than on game lines. If you haven’t joined the Discord yet and are interested in NBA props, now’s the time to get in there. We might also send out the periodic Substack posts with some NBA plays, just as a fair warning, but probably not here in the near term as we get underway.
I’ll leave you with some general gambling words of wisdom from Mike as well as his first play of the year, which he just posted in Discord about 15 minutes ago.
Before we begin, I wanted to break down some information about NBA betting for those who may be new to the sport. The NBA is a nightly grind, there’s a ton of variance from night to night, a huge number of bets that take place during the course of the long season, and the books are obviously excellent at making lines. Using strict unit sizes and being disciplined is extremely important. After a rough night, you’re not always going to make all back immediately. After a great night, you shouldn’t start rushing plays with the expectation that everything you bet will hit. It’s a long NBA season and there will be plenty of opportunities to make a profit.
Like with the NFL, there are always long-shot bets that can be exciting. Instead of taking over 7.5 rebounds for a player, you can take 10 rebounds or a double-double, so the payout is much larger if the play hits. Taking these opportunities can make your profit much larger when/if they hit but they’re also more difficult to hit. Your risk-tolerance can determine your willingness to bet these plays but please manage your bankroll effectively so you’re not losing it all on longshots. We’ll continue to discuss these elements and attempt to help everyone turn a profit.
A good rule of thumb is 1U = 1% of your total available bankroll, depending on your betting volume and amount of sports you bet on. You will almost always be better off and happier betting less money and winning a little less than betting more and increasing your risk exposure.
Proper bankroll management is not only key to long-term monetary success, but it is also key to enjoyment. This should be a fun and enjoyable endeavor: if you are anxiously sweating bets and noticing that the enjoyment is outweighed by anxiety, then it may be a good idea to reconsider your unit size or volume. Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get to the first play of the night!
Bet: 1U Klay Thompson u17.5 PTS (-115, PointsBet, MGM)
Under in 7/11 games this season
Facing a Suns defense that allows the fewest points to opposing SGs (3rd fewest 3s)
Since returning in 2022, Klay is under in 2/2 vs the Suns. Last game he was ejected but had just 2 pts in 19 mins, shooting 1 of 8
If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can below, and your welcome email will include instructions on how to join us in Discord. For everyone else, see you in Discord for the rest of Mike’s plays!