Playoffs? A Couple Bets for Wild Card Week

I’ll be doing a full review on the season after the year and see how things fully shake out. But overall things did not go according to plan (thanks Jaguars).

I don’t like betting a ton during the playoffs as lines are generally sharper with more action being put on these games so I keep it to a few a week.

We bet pretty heavily on the unders for the passing game in the BUF/PIT game due to insane weather. Now with the game being moved we got absolutely shafted since these bets don’t void due to a change in time.

Weather should still be brutal in that game but it’s going to be more manageable that what we were anticipating.

Just going to make a short and simple post here with a couple bets for the games.

Jalen Hurts over 36.5 rushing yards -115 (Betrivers/Unibet)

TJ Hernandez of 4for4 did a study showing rushing QBs rush for roughly six more yards per game in the playoffs than they do during the regular season.

Just yesterday Flacco, Mahomes and Tua all went over their totals.

Hurts not only is dealing with a finger injury in which reports are he hadnt even thrown a football earlier in the week but AJ Brown is missing. This could certainly mean a bigger mix of the run game by Swift, but Hurts rushing should be a bigger part of the game plan as well. This is Hurts first real game (last year against Washington while resting players) without AJ Brown since the trade.

We’ve seen Hurts rushing production drop quite a bit this year, but this is mainly due to him having less designed runs. He’s scrambling at a higher rate than he was last year and the expectation is in a do or die playoff game this becomes run heavy for the Eagles with injuries looming.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Play to 39.5

James Cook over 15.5 rushing attempts -108 (Fanduel)

This game is going to be absolutely insane and the Bills will likely rely very heavily on their running game between Cook and Allen rushing.

Weather has toned down a bit now with the movement of this game but it still should be 17-19 MPH sustained winds.

As 9.5 favorites game script also should indicate a favorable run approach.

Cook has 16+ attempts in 5 of his last 7 as he’s been relied upon more heavily with Latavius Murray taking a backseat with a RB rotation behind him.

Risk 1.08 units to win 1 unit

Play to -108