Everything you need to know about March Madness in 2025 + Bets

This is now the third rendition of this guide I put out every year. It’s free mainly because it’s fun for me and I don’t consider myself an expert by any means when it comes to college basketball. I will no joke watch like maybe a total of a few hours of college basketball in the regular season.

But I do have a pretty good track record when it comes to March Madness. Ever since I was growing up March Madness was the best time of the year for sports. I remember sitting in class and having our teachers (only the cool ones) put it on for us.

And then I turned 21 and have been going to Vegas every year since then. It’s become a tradition now.

The amount of unpredictability that can happen in any given moment in this tournament in just a one game sample creates the best format in any sport.

If you followed my guide in each of the last two years my guess is that you’ve probably done pretty well in your brackets with your friends.

In 2023 we had Uconn as a sneaky team to win it all as a 4 seed. We ended up cashing out on bets and it was the best year I’ve ever had in brackets, finishing in the top .1% of brackets.

Last year according to our research we identified two teams that had “perfect” profiles and recommended to have them going to the title game. Both Uconn and Purdue (breaking their curse of getting upset early) showed that they were the best teams steamrolling their way to the finals.

This year we are hopefully going to create some more magic.

When reading this I want you to embrace the mindset that everything in this guide is more of a framework of how to structure a bracket.

The type of teams that generally go far, the type of teams that generally get upset early, the type of teams that could be cinderella’s. I’m going to try my best to emphasize and highlight important teams I will be having advance far and also be doing that with my bets.

And if I’m writing something here in this guide it’s because it’s important and would recommend following the guidelines as closely as possible.

Overview of the 2025 Tournament

The past couple years (and most every year) it feels a little top heavy. And while it is this year, I think we are set up for one of the best tournaments we might see in a while.

According to KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency Metric, this is the highest average rating across the field we have seen since Kenpom started tracking this in 2002.

We have more elite teams than we have ever seen in the tournament and because of that it might be a tad more chalky than we have seen in years past.

But I’ve also said that before and chaos is likely going to happen regardless.

What is controlled chaos?

Just because we think something will happen doesn’t mean it will happen, that’s what makes this tournament the best format.

Chaos will happen but how can we make sure we are making the best possible bets to rise when chaos happens.

What is an example of chaos in our March Madness bracket?

Last year a lot of people including myself had Auburn as a sneaky team to win it all as a four seed.

They lost in their first game to Yale.

NC State making the final four as an 11 seed is certainly chaos.

Chaos are things that we can’t fully predict and it’s almost certain that it will happen again in this tournament.

But chaos is a factor of variance.

Let me give you a quick example here:

Shaquille O’Neal and Steph Curry are set to face off in a 3 point competition.

We all know Steph Curry would dominate Shaq in this contest and would simply never lose, but what if the rules were that they only had one shot each and the winner was decided based on that one shot?

We would still expect Steph to win a high majority of the time, but it wouldn’t be that crazy to see Shaq get lucky and make one while Steph somehow missed one.

Again really unlikely but totally possible.

Now let’s say Shaq wins and now he gets to face up against Ray Allen.

Ray Allen is going to win a high majority of the time, but somehow Shaq wins again.

Chaos.

But now he goes up against Klay Thompson.

You get the idea.

You would have to get extremely lucky over and over against battling against the odds to continue to advance.

That’s what NC State did.

They won 4 games to make it to the Final Four, but at some point the better team was going to win and their luck ran out after getting smoked.

This tournament is about the cream rising to the top.

Chaos will happen early and often but as the tournament progresses there is a controlled aspect of it.

Good teams will lose early but also good teams will stay along and continue to advance.

There is almost a science behind this and despite chaos happening in the middle of the tournament, in hindsight afterwards things tend to make sense and don’t end up being extremely crazy - especially when it comes to the champion.

Understanding this concept is going to be very key when filling out a bracket this year.

What does a National Champion look like?

I know this is a really crazy concept to wrap our head around, but National Champions are generally some of the best teams in the country.

And not only that these National Champions are elite both offensively and defensively.

Having no weaknesses is a key in this tournament to sustain the chaos that ensues.

I’m going to throw some concepts out here but my buddy Connor Allen does a great job in this thread also breaking it down.

Offense is important

Dating back to 2002 using KenPom, we have seen 22 of 23 (96%) of National Champions be 21st or better in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE).

We have 20 teams that fit this criteria this year.

But what if we whittle this down even more?

15 of these 23 (65%) champions were top six in AOE. Having an elite offense is incredibly important. And it makes sense, being able to be efficient can help prevent teams from having a “bad” shooting day more than other offenses.

Here are the top six teams in AOE this year:

1. Florida

2. Auburn

3. Duke

4. Alabama

5. Missouri

6. Texas Tech

Is this an easy way to determine who is going to win it all?

No, but it’s a big piece of the puzzle.

Defense is also important

Dating back to 2002, all 23 National Champions finished in the top 44 of adjusted defensive efficiency.

Again, isn’t it kinda crazy that the teams that win are good on both sides of the ball?

Being elite on one side of the ball can certainly help you dominate games early on in the tournament, but if you have a weakness on either offense or defense you’re likely to get exposed by teams who are good at both.

While the mantra is “Defense wins championships” - and it certainly helps - it doesn’t move the needle as much as having a top offense.

Only 9 of 23 (39%) champions had a top 10 defense.

For defense we are generally looking for something along the lines of “Is your defense good enough?”

Who are our potential national champions?

So knowing that basically you have to be top 21 in adjusted offense and top 44 in adjusted defense, who are the teams this year that fit that criteria?

I will say this is the first time I have seen this many teams fit the baseline criteria for a national champion.

• Duke (3rd off/4th def)

• Florida (1st off/10th def)

• Houston (10th off/2nd def)

• Auburn (2nd off/12th def)

• Tennessee (18th off/3rd def)

• Alabama (4th off/32nd def)

• Texas Tech (6th off/37th def)

• Gonzaga (9th off/29th def)

• Iowa St (20th off/9th def)

• Wisconsin (13th off/27th def)

• Arizona (12th off/33rd def)

• Illinois (15th off/41st def)

We have 12 teams that fit this mark which is the most I’ve seen since researching March Madness.

If you’re putting someone as a national champion it’s highly likely it comes from this list.

Adjusted Efficiency Margin

On KenPom there is the metric that blends both of these offensive and defensive metrics into a “Net Rating”. This net rating basically shows how dominant your are compared to your peers in one simple efficiency metric.

20 of the past 23 (87%) winners have been in the top 6 of Adjusted Efficiency Margin

Those teams this year:

1. Duke

2. Florida

3. Houston

4. Auburn

5. Tennessee

6. Alabama

This year is crazy.

So yeah it’s pretty historic and those top four teams are some of the best teams we’ve seen in the tournament in the past 23 years. The fact they are all in the same tournament is going to make it a lot harder for these other teams to win.

We are going to circle back here later on with which teams specifically are the best bets and which teams on some of these lists might have some other red flags.

What does a Final Four Team look like?

So we are aware the type of profiles in teams that are needed to win the entire championship.

We would think that teams to make the Final Four are likely very similar right?

Correct, all the things that are important for a champion will be important here, but the qualifications are a little easier.

There’s more chaos with some of these Final Four teams and it seems like almost every year we get a random team that nobody predicted making it this far.

Here’s some data behind what types of teams made it to the Final Four since 2002 for Adjusted Efficiency Margin:

• 75 of 88 (85.2%) Final Four teams were in the top 15 of Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• 72 of 88 (81.8%) Final Four teams had an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 22.0 or higher

• 54 of 88 (61.4%) Final Four teams had an Adjusted Efficiency Margin of 25.0 or higher

• 65 of 88 (73.9%) Final Four teams were top 10 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• 48 of 88 (54.5%) Final Four teams were top 5 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

For offense and defense:

• 71 of 88 (80.7%) Final Four teams were top 30 in adj off

• 71 of 88 (80.7%) Final Four teams were top 30 in adj def

• 58 of 88 (65.9%) Final Four teams were top 30 in both adj off and def

• 84 of 88 (95.5%) Final Four teams were top 30 in either adj off or def

• 48 of 88 (54.5%) Final Four teams were top 10 in adj off

• 43 of 88 (48.9%) Final Four teams were top 10 in adj def

• 69 of 88 (78.4%) Final Four teams were top 10 in either adj off or def

• 63 of 88 (71.6%) Final Four teams were top 20 in adj off

• 63 of 88 (71.6%) Final Four teams were top 20 in adj def

• 43 of 88 (48.9%) Final Four teams were top 20 in both adj off and def

• 11 of 88 (12.5%) Final Four teams were outside the top 50 in either adj off or def

• 20 of 37 (54.1%) Teams in both top 10 adj off and def made it to the Final FourThat was a lot of stats so here are the most important things.

Being balanced is key. The fact only 12.5% of Final Four teams were outside the top 50 in either offense or defense is very important.

And being elite in one thing whether it’s offense or defense is very key towards your ability to make the Final Four.

When we do our region by region breakdowns we will use this data as well as some other ones to help us get a good idea of who to bet on.

Strength of Schedule

Shoutout to Tim Holder and his awesome work he does on “The Sheet” where last year he made me aware of the power of strength of schedule is when seeing success in this tournaments.

And if last year was a positive indicator we had the Final Four teams all finish top 27 in strength of schedule including the top two hardest schedules to make it.

Using KenPom’s strength of schedule ranking, Tim found that 82% of Final Four teams had a top 35 strength of schedule while 92% of Final Four teams had a top 60 strength of schedule.

I mean this makes a ton of sense too considering the best teams are generally playing in the best conferences and are constantly playing against each other.

It feels like the committee does a really good job of taking this into account when giving seeds to these teams, so naturally the higher seeds will tend to have a tougher strength of schedule.

If you’re beating good teams you’re likely a good team, and if you’re beating bad teams you might be a good team but it’s harder to know unless you’re playing good teams.

Again a lot of this feels common sense when we break it down.

So last year I did a deep dive to see if we could find any red flags in a profile if a team had a weaker strength of schedule than what the threshold indicated.

I asked these simple questions:

How did these teams perform on average?

Did they tend to get upset early?

Did they simply fail to make deep runs?

So I broke it down by the following:

• Top six seed

• Outside the top 60 in strength of schedule

Here is how they fared:

• 3 of 83 made the Championship Game

• 4 of 83 made the Final Four

• 10 of 83 made the Elite Eight

• 29 of 83 made the Sweet Sixteen

• 28 of 83 got upset round 1

• 63 of 83 teams got upset by a seed lower than them

• 9 of 44 seeds 1-4 made the Elite Eight

• 7 of the 17 seeds ranked 1 or 2 made it to the Elite Eight

This is quite stark results here.

I also find it interesting that there were 27 teams as a 3 or 4 seed and only two of them were able to make it to the Elite Eight.

At random the average 1-4 seed will make the Elite Eight 38% of the time. We see in this sample that this is almost half of that.

And for 1 and 2 seeds we see them make the Elite Eight 57% of the time but only 41% in this sample.

This is still a small sample overall but is going to be very important into seeing which teams have some “red flags” in their profile that may make it a little tough for them to advance.

The teams this year that fit this bill are:

• St John’s (61st)

• Clemson (68th)

• Memphis (82nd)

I did find it interesting that Duke was 56th and barely snuck into the threshold. I’m likely not too concerned about it considering they’re the best team in the past 23 years to enter the tournament according to KenPom, but should be kept in the back of our heads.

As far as St John’s goes, if you’re starting to formulate a bracket it’s not looking hot for them right now as they not only have an offensive issue (65th in offense), but they have a strength of schedule issue. And as you read later we will find out they have another big red flag.

It’s funny that Memphis is already an underdog to 12 seeded Colorado State in their first game. Clemson is on upset alert too.

We had three of the five teams last year lose round one.

Other Red Flags to be aware of

Half the battle of creating a March Madness bracket is choosing who NOT to have going far in your bracket.

Identifying the type of teams that have the potential to get upset early on can be a massive advantage against your peers when doing a bracket.

This whole section will be about that.

Paper Tigers

I want to give a massive shoutout to Ken Barkley as these theories I will mention over the next couple segments were studies done by him. He is in my opinion the best in the industry at spotting unique profiles in teams and has a very sharp mind when it comes to betting. One of my favorites in the industry and I’d recommend checking out his work.

I’ll quickly identify what a “Paper Tiger” is and the research behind it.

There’s three criteria for a team to be considered a Paper Tiger:

• Top six seed in your region

• Top 25 raw offense

• Outside the top 150 in raw defense

There has been 32 teams to qualify as a Paper Tiger since 2002.

Below are some results:

2 of 32 made the Final Four (Alabama ‘24, Miami ‘23)

6 of 32 made the Elite Eight (four have made the Elite Eight in the past two years)

It should be noted Paper Tigers have had a decent run the last two years when there has really never been any success with these teams.

The teams that go further have tended to have some very fortunate matchups go their way to allow them to go far.

And when they do go far and go up against a better team they’ve got absolutely smoked.

Some recent examples:

Alabama lost by 14 last year to Uconn

Illinois lost by 25 last year to Uconn

Gonzaga lost by 28 in 2023 to Uconn

Miami lost by 13 in 2023 to Uconn

Uconn has been an absolute wagon in the tournament, but this is generally what happens when these types of teams go up against elite and balanced teams.

And last year the other two teams were Kentucky (lost to 14 seed round 1) and Baylor (lost to six seed Clemson round 2)

The Paper Tiger theory is similar to our research in the early part of the guide where we know teams must be balanced in order to make big runs.

Some of the bigger upsets in recent tourney history have actually been Paper Tiger’s that have been defeated including two 15 seeds winning round 1.

Generally these are the type of teams we want to be very wary of since they don’t make it very far.

The teams this year that qualify as a Paper Tiger:

• Missouri (6th raw offense/158th raw defense)

• Alabama (9th raw offense/176th raw defense)

• Purdue (15th raw offense/192nd raw defense)

• Kentucky (17th raw offense/191st raw defense)

I will be making sure to not have these teams going super far in my brackets!

It’s unlikely these teams make a deep run in the tournament - especially this year with some of the elite teams.

If I’m creating a bracket I wouldn’t have these teams go further than the Sweet Sixteen and if you want to have a little fun in your bracket you could throw an upset or two early on.

And if there’s stunning upsets that happen in the tournament early on it wouldn’t be shocking if it came from this list.

Late Bloomers

Another recent trend and study done by the great Ken Barkley where he recently found a couple years ago that teams who perform significantly better at the end of the year relative to what they were the majority of the season, tend to be over-seeded and lose early.

Here is how this is specifically defined: We are using the site BartTorvik and using a cut off date of February 15th. We look at the rankings at how teams did before and after this date.

If a team post February 15th was ranked 10 or more spots higher than they were in the previous 3+ months of the season and are a top six seed in this years tournament, they would qualify as a “Late Bloomer”.

There has been 63 teams to qualify for this since 2008 and one ONE has made the Final Four.

• 26 of 63 teams lost in their first round game. This is pretty shocking considering these teams are all higher seeds and favorites.

• 42 of 63 teams were eliminated by their second game and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

• 42 of 63 teams were eliminated by a team with a lower seed than them

Last year Creighton was our only late bloomer, they snuck out a Double OT win vs 11 seeded Oregon before losing in the Sweet 16.

I also wanted to see if there was an even bigger difference if we changed the criteria to a 20+ spot increase in the final month of the season.

Here were the results:

Only 9 of 25 (36%) lost in the first round

19 of 25 (76%) were eliminated by the second round

23 of 25 (92%) were eliminated by the Sweet Sixteen

There is one outlier here in this in that Michigan went to the finals in 2018 as they were ranked 28th in the country pre February 15th and 1st in the final month.

They actually faced Houston in the second round and beat them by one point. This matters because Houston was also a massive Late Bloomer that season finishing 24 spots ahead of where they were Pre February 15th. Something had to give here.

Michigan (3 seed) went on to face a 7 seed, 9 seed and 11 seed on their way to the Finals before getting dismantled by 17 in the Championship. This is probably the luckiest run in NCAA history in terms of matchups and easily could’ve lost in the second round.

This year we have three teams that qualify (pre Feb 15 to post Feb 15):

• BYU: Up 31 spots (35 → 4)

• Michigan: Up 11 spots (53 → 42)

• Oregon: Up 13 spots (39 → 26)

BYU already having a 68th ranked defense gives them another big red flag here.

It wouldn’t be shocking to see any of these teams get upset in the first round and I certainly won’t have them going to the Sweet Sixteen in any of my brackets.

Preseason AP Poll

Ken Pomeroy had this incredible tweet a couple years back:

Since then we’ve seen three teams fit that criteria and the following happened:

• Purdue lost to a 16 seed

• Marquette lost in the 2nd round to a 7 seed

• Iowa St lost in the Elite Eight last year

So the fact is we have 39 teams that fit this criteria and NONE have made the final four is absolutely insane.

The logic does seem to make sense a little bit when we dive in.

Preseason AP Poll’s are made simply on the idea of how talented a team is on paper. Talent matters. And these rankers are pretty plugged into college basketball to make their best assessment of who these teams are.

Great coaching and chemistry and effort can help teams maximize their potential which is what we see happen with these teams. They’re playing at their absolute peak during the regular season, but do they have the requisite talent to overcome some of these more talented teams even if they’re better coached?

History shows that talent will win out here. And this isn’t to say these teams aren’t talented, they’ve just over-performed expectations already for this year to be in this position.

This year there is two teams that fit the bill:

• St John’s

• Michigan State

Both were ranked outside the top 25 in the preseason poll and earned number 2 seeds.

If there is a spot to have fun in your brackets it could be having neither of these teams make the Sweet Sixteen as most people will have them going far.

A quick note about St John’s

So if you’re reading up to this point you’ve probably noticed that St. John’s now has three major red flags:

• Outside the top 50 in offense

• Outside the top 60 in strength of schedule

• Not ranked in the preseason AP poll

History is certainly not on their side and I will certainly not be having them go far.

There is some added context here that may make them seem not as bad.

They’re 61st in strength of schedule, just outside the threshold (still not good).

And they were the 2nd honorable mention for the AP preseason poll (27th ranked).

One thing to note is St John’s has the best defense in the tournament according to KenPom since 2002.

There are massive concerns here, but if they were to make it further than we thought in hindsight we could look at them just missing a couple of this qualifications and probably not properly evaluating how historic this defense is.

This is mainly me writing this so I can save my ass after I heavily fade them if anything goes wrong.

Teams that check every box

If there is a team to choose to win it all it’s going to be in this section.

Last year we only had two teams to qualify and it was Uconn and Purdue, both made the finals.

Let’s raise our standards a bit and try to find the teams that check all the elite boxes in all the criteria we are looking for.

The following we found to be the most important:

• Top 6 offense

• Good defense

• Top 6 in Adjusted Efficiency Margin

• Top 35 in strength of schedule

Only two teams qualify for this high standard:

• Florida

• Auburn

If we squint our eyes just a tad for teams that still check all these boxes but barely missed these high standards we see two more teams:

• Houston (10th in offense, still elite)

• Duke (56th in strength of schedule, within the main threshold)

I think it’s likely that one of these four wins it all.

It should be noted that Florida and Auburn fit our highest criteria of also being a top 6 offense (more ideal).

Houston is only 10th on offense, but has the 2nd best defensive rating in the tournament since 2002 (behind St Johns).

Duke checks all these boxes, but has a slight strength of schedule issue at 56th in the country.

Someone pointed out to me on X that teams in the top 5 of offense AND defense have won the title 6 of 7 times. The other team lost in the finals.

Duke also has the highest AEM recorded on KenPom dating all the way back to 2002.

We’ve never seen a tournament where these top four teams have been this good before and this much better than the field.

If I’m being honest, there isn’t a team of these that I have a preference for.

And generally when I make these guides I can give a much clearer direction on which team I’m honing in on as a really good bet this year.

Well, this year kinda sucks for brackets because the truth is I don’t know which one of these teams will win.

The only thing I feel confident in is that it is going to be one of those teams.

So if you’re reading this and want an answer on who to pick or are wondering who I am going to pick, I can’t tell you because I don’t know.

What I will be doing in nearly all of my brackets is I will be having all of these teams in my Final Four. They’re too good, check all the boxes and fit everything else we want in a champion.

I’ll gladly let other people in my bracket decide to get cute and choose teams that aren’t as strong of bets to make it this far.

Some brackets I might have Florida winning, some I might have Auburn, some Duke and maybe some Houston.

If I had gun to my head with one bracket it’s probably Florida or Auburn mainly because Houston has a tougher region and doesn’t have as elite of offense and for Duke there is slight concerns about Cooper Flagg’s health and strength of schedule.

A bullshit stat that doesn’t matter

You might hear some people say: “Well, there’s only been year ever that all four number one seeds made the Final Four.”

Or another one: “In each of the last 11 tournaments a seed 5 or below has made the Final Four.”

Yeah, sure this tournament is chaotic so it’s actually HARD for these top seeds to make it, they have to beat good teams to get there.

And because of the format it’s natural that some teams that aren’t top seeds make the Final Four.

That’s the fun of it.

But each tournament is completely different. The teams are different. The profiles of players are different. Everything is unique.

So using stats like: “A 5 seed has made it every year so I need to put a 5 or lower in my Final Four.”

The question I would ask would be: “How good were the number one seeds that year? Was the number 5 seed or lower in a easy bracket? Were they underseeded as a 5 seed? Was the tournament not as top heavy?”

It was actually the same argument for Purdue last year. The theory was “Purdue always gets upset early and never advances far even if they’re a top seed.” Well, last year Purdue was actually an elite team! Even though they had been a number one seed in the past they have had red flags and things in their profile that were concerns.

Not all one seeds are the same.

Not all tournaments are the same.

If there was ever a tournament in which all four number one seeds could make the Final Four, this would be the tournament.

1st Half Unders

If you’re reading this guide you fit into one of two categories: looking to create a bracket to beat your friends OR you’re reading this to get some edges in the betting market (and beat your friends in the bracket)

If you’re the first then you can skip this part. This one is for my bettors (or people who want some action on a profitable look).

So a big shoutout to the Sports Gambling Podcast for finding the most entertaining and profitable way to get action on every single March Madness game.

Welcome to the first half unders.

So the theory behind this is very simple and straightforward.

For every first round game (including the play-in) we bet the first half under for every game. These teams are used to playing two games a week and not traveling very far for their games.

Some of these teams are waiting close to a week in between games and going to locations across the country in a heightened and pressure filled environment against opponents who they are unfamiliar with.

Because of this teams have a tendency to start slow in their first half of basketball in this tournament.

And the data backs it up.

If you blindly bet the first half under of every game that fits this criteria dating back to 2011 here are the results:

Not every year is going to go our way, but when the year does go well it’s incredible and the math supports this trend over a big sample.

So if you want to join me and the boys in some fun and wager every first half under of the First Four and first round games, this is your invitation.

Note: This only applies for the first round, anything beyond it has not been tracked and is not a theory or betting practice I subscribe to.

South Region

Auburn is an absolute powerhouse.

2nd in offense, 12th in defense, 2nd in strength of schedule. They’re a team to be reckoned with. Off the bat it’s really hard to bet against a team that good and something chaotic would have to happen for them not to advance far in this region.

Let’s keep that in mind while evaluating the rest of this region.

Louisville and Creighton are both solid 8 and 9 seeds. They are well balanced while not elite at anything.

It certainly won’t be a cake walk for Auburn if they were to play either of them, but if they were to somehow upset Auburn it wouldn’t be so crazy if they made it to the Elite Eight or even Final Four.

I’m certainly not betting it but they check all the main thresholds for a Final Four team.

Michigan is on upset alert game one as we know they are a Late Bloomer.

Texas A&M as a four seed is pretty solid. They actually check all the boxes we are looking for in a team that could make the Final Four.

They’re top 7 in defense while still being 44th in offense and their strength of schedule is 5th in the country.

Again, getting through Auburn is a very tough task, but they profile well here and in all my brackets I’m likely having them in the Sweet Sixteen.

Ole Miss as a 6 seed is very similar to the profiles of Louisville/Creighton. Balanced with nothing elite to their name, but do have a high strength of schedule.

Their issued with a tough task of playing the winner of San Diego State and North Carolina. We’ve seen these First Four teams make runs in recent years with strong track record for upsets.

Iowa State profiles pretty well as a three seed. 20th in offense while being 9th in defense while still having a decent strength of schedule at 36th.

They profile well as a three seed and wouldn’t be shocking in the slightest to see them make the Elite Eight.

Michigan State is a big red flag being not ranked in the AP Preseason Poll. But the rest of their profile is decent. 27th in offense, 5th in defense, 27th in Strength of Schedule.

There is really nothing that separates them from Iowa St so in a matchup where they played each other I’d bet on the team without the red flag.

Marquette, similar to Louisville, Creighton and Ole Miss, are a balanced team with no elite traits. It wouldn’t be super shocking to see them upset Michigan St in the 2nd round, but it’s hard to see them make a deep run in this region with some of the other good teams in their way.

New Mexico as a 10 seed is lacking a bit on the offensive end and has a tough strength of schedule at 80th in country. Really hard to see them being a cinderella here.

A team that could be fun that a lot of people are going to choose as an upset is UC San Diego. As a 12 seed they profile quite well and are balanced, having them beat Michigan isn’t crazy. And I don’t think it would be the most ridiculous thing to have them make the Sweet Sixteen, I just am probably having Texas A&M winning.

The winner of North Carolina (UNC) and SDSU could be someone fun to have going on to the next round especially if its UNC. UNC is pretty balanced and has a solid overall profile for an 11 seed.

We always see a First Four team a lot of times sneak into the Sweet Sixteen so there’s potential here.

Other than that it looks very straightforward that Auburn is the team have in your bracket.

Based on how the bracket aligned Iowa State is solid and fading Michigan State is going to be the big plays here

Best Bets for South Region

Iowa St to make the Elite Eight +300 (Caesars)

Risk 1.5 units to win 4.5 units

Play to +200

Michigan State to not make the Sweet 16 +170 (Caesars)

Risk 1.5 units to win 2.55 units

Play to +150

Texas A&M to make the Sweet Sixteen +130 (Fanduel)

Risk 1.5 units to win 1.95 units

Bryant ML +1300 (Fanatics)

Risk .2 units to win 2.6 units

Bryant +17.5 -110 (Caesars)

Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit

East Region

There’s a ton of red here!

That should be great news for Duke as they’re top 5 in both offense and defense and Cooper Flagg is expected back.

They’re just so elite there is no way I’m not going to have them in my Final Four especially with how weak this bracket is.

We mentioned Alabama earlier and they technically have some good things in their profile with the hardest schedule in the country, a number 4 ranked offense and 32 ranked defense, while being top 6 in Adjusted Efficiency metric.

Their red flag is their raw defense is abysmal due to the conference they are in with 176th making them a Paper Tiger.

Because there is so many other red flags in their bracket it actually wouldn’t be crazy if they did make it to the Elite Eight or Sweet Sixteen.

Wisconsin technically fits the criteria of a National Champion being 13th in offense and 27th in defense with the 22nd hardest schedule. They’re a balanced team, but what might hold them back is they’re not elite (top 10) offensively or defensively.

There’s a reason 79% of Final Four teams are top 10 in either offense or defense so that’s their main hinderance.

Because Alabama is on the bottom part of their bracket, we could see Wisconsin make their way into the Elite Eight and if somehow Duke gets upset early maybe Wisconsin is the team that makes it out.

I’m not betting on it, but it’s a possibility.

Same thing goes for Arizona.

12th in offense, 33rd in defense and 4th in strength of schedule.

Their biggest issue is Duke is looking them right in the face in a potential Sweet 16 matchup.

If they were to overcome Duke somehow then Arizona could be the team that makes it out of the region.

Again, not betting on it but it is a possibility.

Oregon is a Late Bloomer and overrated as a 5 seed. According to KenPom they’re the 31st best team in the country.

We could see them get upset Round 1 and Arizona potentially awaits them in the following round.

BYU is a Late Bloomer and also is outside the top 50 in defense sitting at 68th.

We certainly could see them lose round 1 to a balanced VCU team.

Saint Mary’s is 56th in offense and 8th in defense. They’re a red flag team since they don’t have the offense we like to see and their strength of schedule is 90th, but they could maybe pull an upset against Alabama in the following round if they win.

I’m not going out of my way to bet on it but it’s a possibility.

Mississippi State is balanced: 23rd in offense and 47th in defense while having the 14th hardest schedule.

With Duke playing them round 2, they aren’t someone I’m considering, but if somehow were able to make it through they would have some qualities to be sneaky.

Not betting on it though.

Baylor is just out of the range. 16th in offense, 58th in defense and 10th in strength of schedule. Solid profile just hard to see them making a run with that defense.

Vanderbilt is kind of gross. 30th in offense and 83rd in defense while being 33rd in strength of schedule. Hard to see them making any serious noise.

VCU as an 11 is somewhat interesting. They’re 30th in KenPom’s rankings while being balanced with 41st offense and 23rd defense. Their red flag is they are 123rd in strength of schedule.

Probably not a team that makes a deep run but definitely capable of an upset or two.

Liberty isn’t too exciting 80th in offense and 48th in defense with a 141st strength of schedule. Maybe capable of one win but their upside is limited.

The rest of the team aren’t anything crazy and nothing I’m excited about in terms of upsets in Round 1.

Might sprinkle on Robert Morris simply because of Alabama’s profile but thats it.

Best Bets for East Region

Alabama NOT to make the Sweet Sixteen +205 (Caesars)

Risk 1 unit to win 2.05 units

Play to +190

Alabama NOT to make the Elite Eight -125 (Caesars)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit

Play to -140

Wisconsin to make the Elite Eight +310 (Fanduel)

Risk 1 unit to win 3.1 units

VCU ML +135 (Caesars)

Risk 1 unit to win 1.35 units

Robert Morris ML +2000 (Caesars)

Risk .1 units to win 2 units

Robert Morris +23.5 -115 (BetMGM/DraftKings)

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Midwest Region

This region has some unique teams here with a bunch of different profiles.

First we have Houston which has top 10 offense and 2nd best defense.

20 of 37 (54%) teams to be top 10 in both offense and defense have made the Final Four.

Houston is a powerhouse but may have a bit more trouble coming out of their region than some of the other number 1 seeds.

Tennessee is the only number 2 seed that doesn’t have a red flag in it’s portfolio. They check a lot of boxes as a team with 18th ranked offense, 3rd ranked defense and 6th ranked strength of schedule.

Overall a very strong team.

Kentucky feels over-seeded as a three seed as they’re ranked 16th in KenPom and we know are Paper Tigers. Similar to last year when Kentucky was a three seed and Paper Tiger when they lost in the first round to 14 seeded Oakland.

I’m fading them at all costs.

Same boat with Purdue. Paper Tiger with a weak defense. These are the worst 3 and 4 seeds in the tournament.

Clemson looks solid on paper. 24th in offense and 16th in defense, but they have a 68th ranked strength of schedule.

They’re definitely the type of team that could win a couple games especially with a potential matchup against Purdue in the 2nd round, but also a team that could get upset.

Illinois is interesting. 15th in offense, 41st in defense and 6th in strength of schedule. I didn’t put them as a Final Four profile mainly because they aren’t top 10 in offense but they’re right on the cusp and think they could be a sneaky team to win a few games especially with Kentucky facing them in a Round of 32 bout.

UCLA has a pretty solid profile for a 7 seed. 35th in offense, 17th in defense and 37th in strength of schedule. Overall pretty good and the type of profile we have seen in the past make sneaky Elite Eight runs.

I’m not necessarily betting it because I think Tennessee is good. I just wish UCLA was a 7 seed in any other bracket.

Gonzaga is also extremely interesting. So they actually profile as a National Champion, but have a weaker strength of schedule at 72nd.

They’re 9th overall in KenPom, 9th in offense and 29th in defense.

If there is a “cinderella” in this years tournament you’re looking right at them.

The issue is obvious: Houston.

Because Gonzaga is in the way of Houston, I think the road is tough, but with Purdue/Clemson as the 4/5 seed in a potential Sweet Sixteen matchup the road is clear for Gonzaga to make noise if they can get past Houston.

I still think Houston is the best bet, but there’s ways to get creative with Gonzaga out of this bracket.

Georgia as a 9 seed is overall solid. 54th in offense, 26th in defense and 25th in strength of schedule.

The type of team that certainly could beat Gonzaga in the first round, but also probably not good enough to make serious noise.

Utah St has pretty gross peripherals. 17th in offense and 149th in defense with an 87th ranked strength of schedule.

Hard to get excited about them.

Texas and Xavier are both balanced teams but not inside the top 35 in either offense or defense.

We know First Four teams that win do have success in the tournament, so even with their weak-ish profiles they could maybe win a game or two.

McNeese is 63rd in offense and 66th in defense. Because they’re playing Clemson I do think they have upset potential. And because its a quadrant with two red flags in Clemson and Purdue, if there is a spot we see a 12 or 13 seed make the Sweet Sixteen this might be it.

High Point isn’t exciting but playing Purdue is! They’re big underdogs but against a team with red flags like Purdue upsets are always live.

Same with Troy. Playing Kentucky is always fun even if these lower seeds aren’t the most exciting teams.

Best Bets for Midwest Region

Kentucky to NOT make the Sweet Sixteen -144 (Fanduel)

Risk 2.88 units to win 2 units

Play to -155

McNeese to make the Sweet Sixteen +800 (Caesars)

Risk .5 units to win 4 units

Play to +700

High Point to make the Sweet Sixteen +1400 (Caesars)

Risk .3 units to win 4.2 units

Play to +1200

Troy ML +550 (DraftKings)

Risk .5 units to win 2.75 units

Play to +500

High Point ML +300 (Fanatics)

Risk 1 unit to win 3 units

Play to +275

McNeese ML +275 (Caesars/BetMGM)

Risk 1 unit to win 2.75 units

Play to +250

Gonzaga to make the Final Four +950 (DraftKings)

Risk .4 units to win 3.8 units

Play to +850

West Region

This bracket is fun. Lots of red with some yellow, a blue and green.

Florida is just so freaking dominant it’s going to be hard to see them faltering early. Best offense, 10th in defense and 17th in strength of schedule.

Powerhouse.

We touched on St John’s quite a bit. They’re a scary team to ride and a team we want to fade as much as we can.

Texas Tech is fun and interesting. 5th ranked offense with 37th defense. Their 50th ranked schedule is still fine but not ideal.

With St John’s in the way we could see Texas Tech go a bit far.

Maryland isn’t a sexy team but checks some boxes. 28th offense while having 6th ranked defense. Their strength of schedule is 52nd which - like Texas Tech - is a bit concerning.

They have the profile of a team that could make noise if somehow Florida were to falter (or beat Florida). I would be having them in all my Sweet Sixteen’s in my brackets.

Memphis might be the most over-seeded 5 seed of all-time. They’re ranked 51st in KenPom, have a 72nd ranked offense and 40th ranked defense with a 82nd strength of schedule.

It’s no wonder they are underdogs to Colorado State.

I’m fading and would encourage you to put Colorado St in your bracket.

Missouri another one who is a big Paper Tiger and I’m happy to have them getting upset in the first round. Not a lot of upside here especially with Texas Tech on the horizon round 2.

Kansas is sneaky. They fit the criteria of what we are looking for. 47th in offense and 11th in defense with a 12th ranked strength of schedule.

The issue with being a 7 seed is they don’t have the easiest matchups in the first round so it’s hard to have them going far with much confidence. With that being said they’re the type of team that certainly could win a couple games here.

I’ll be sprinkling in some Kansas in my Sweet Sixteens for my brackets.

The back-to-back champs are an 8 seed and aren’t super exciting. 14th in offense, 94th in defense and 55th in strength of schedule. You could make the case is that they’ve been there before and anything is possible. Just not close to the same team they were last year.

Oklahoma is 21st in offense, 70th in defense and 15th in strength of schedule.

Again not too excited about them making a deep run.

Arkansas is similar to Oklahoma but the defensive version. 73rd in offense, 20th in defense and 23rd in strength of schedule.

If they beat Kansas round one they could make it to the Sweet Sixteen and beat St John’s.

Drake isn’t extremely exciting but they’re playing Missouri so that helps a ton. I’ll probably be picking them for an upset in the first round.

We already mentioned Colorado St who is a favorite vs Memphis as a 12 seed. They’re a balanced team being top 50 in both offense and defense so a pretty good 12 seed.

I’m probably not having them beat Maryland but also wouldn’t be totally shocked.

None of the rest of the teams here are extremely interesting or teams I will have upsetting the teams in this region.

But you damn well better believe we will be betting on Omaha vs St Johns.

Best Bets for West Region

St John’s to NOT make the Sweet Sixteen +175 (Caesars)

Risk 1.5 units to win 2.625 units

Play to +150

Texas Tech to make the Elite Eight +185 (Caesars)

Risk 1 unit to win 1.85 units

Drake Moneyline +220 (Fanduel/DraftKings)

Risk 1 unit to win 2.2 units

Play to +200

Nebraska Omaha ML +1500 (DraftKings)

Risk .2 units to win 7.5 units

Play to +1200

Nebraska Omaha +18.5 -105 (BetMGM)

Risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Play to +18

Other Bets I’m placing

Total 1 seed wins O13.5 -140 (Caesars)

Risk 1.4 units to win 1 unit

Play to -150

Total 2 seed wins U9.5 -120 (Caesars)

Risk 2.4 units to win 2 units

Play to -140

Total 5 seed wins U3.5 +140 (Caesars)

Risk 1 unit to win 1.4 units

Play to +135

Will a 15 seed win a game “YES” +500 (Caesars)

Risk 1 unit to win 5 units

Play to +450

All four number one seeds to make the Final Four +1500 (Fanduel)

Risk .5 units to win 7.5 units

Play to +1300