Early Bets for NFL Win Totals

Just wanted to jump on here and give some early reactions and thoughts on some NFL win totals that have been released. They dropped in the last couple days on both DraftKings and Caesars and we have some interesting things at play here.

Here is a quick look at the strength of schedule for each team heading into 2023:

Divisions that are weak like the NFC and AFC South are naturally going to be closer to the bottom due to just how bad some of the teams were last season and they each get six games against one another.

Here are some lines I saw that seemed a bit off at first glance and ones that I think the market will move with as the offseason progresses.

Best Bets on the Market

Detroit Lions over 9 Wins -150 (Caesars)

If you’ve followed my picks since the season has concluded you know I’m a massive fan of the Detroit Lions heading into next season. They finished last year 8-2 and are in prime position for massive improvement heading into 2023.

First off they’ve crushed free agency in terms of signing value players in the secondary like Cam Sutton and CJ Gardner-Johnson to boost one of the worst secondaries in the league.

Not only that but they have the 6th and 18th picks in this draft to really help boost their defense and add to their core. 12th overall pick Jameson Williams is essentially like having a third first round pick as he was limited last year due to a recovering ACL tear.

This offense has no glaring weaknesses with an elite offensive line and a potential elite 1-2 WR duo in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

With Aaron Rodgers almost certainly leaving the division this creates a potentially weak division that the Lions can feast on this year.

With us getting a push at 9 wins this is a no brainer. This line will likely close around 10 or 10.5 wins once the season starts.

Risk 3 units to win 2 units

Play to 9.5

Jacksonville Jaguars over 9.5 wins -140 (Caesars)

The Jaguars have such a cake walk in the division facing the Texans, Colts and Titans a total of six times this year. I expect both the Colts and Titans to be amongst the biggest under-performers next year in the league with limited talent across the board and still having big question marks at the QB position.

The Texans are on the come up, but they’re still going to be very inexperienced and likely a full season away from competing.

The addition of Calvin Ridley to an emerging offense by future superstar Trevor Lawrence at the helm makes the Jaguars a prime candidate to make the leap and potentially join the elites in the AFC alongside the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals.

This line will almost certainly close around 10.5 this year.

Risk 2.8 units to win 2 units

Play to 10.5 at even