The season is winding down, and we have two games today before the big one in a couple weeks, and then a long, long offseason. Before we get into the games, this week’s $100 Underdog winner is Discord user “yungkeast”. Congrats! That will be deposited directly into your Underdog account.
Last week, we missed the only official bet, as the 49ers didn’t cover. As I talked through the games, I noted my play in KC-BUF, if forced to make one, would be KC on the moneyline, and that my leans in DET-TB were to DET -6 and the over (I also noted I wasn’t sure what I’d do for BAL-HOU), all of which hit. It’s never a victory lap to hit on leans, but I hope it helped out a few of you in thinking through potential bets for those games.
Let’s get into breakdowns of both of today’s games, with picks in each. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: KC moneyline, +185 (MGM, Caesars)
This game’s going to be incredible, and I do think the Ravens are rightly favored at home. Their defense is best-in-class, and other than a Week 18 where they rested starters, they haven’t been beat since early November. That was a home loss to the Browns where Cleveland scored the final 16 points, all in the final nine minutes, including an interception touchdown, so it was a bit fluky. That and Week 18 are Baltimore’s only losses since Week 5.
But they’re not infallible. I look at a game like their overtime win against the Rams in Week 14 as an example of how a team that can put together an effective passing attack can stick right with them. I mention that game explicitly because it’s not just cherry-picking a bad Baltimore letdown game, but because that was lowkey one of the best games of the regular season. Both teams were playing at an incredibly high level, and it’s a good proxy for what I expect today.
The Ravens still won that game, despite committing the game’s only turnover, taking a safety, and doubling up the Rams in penalty yards. They were down at the half, but the defense buckled down and forced four straight punts after the break, before the Rams were able to score 10 late points to force OT. By no means do I think this game represents an easy blueprint to beating Baltimore.
But even as the Ravens have dropped back more this year, Lamar Jackson’s mobility does mean at their core they play a run-heavy style (led the NFL in rush attempts this year; 30th in pass attempts), which can create some challenges. If you can start to limit the success rate of an offense that plays this way (and looks unstoppable doing it), you can start to put them behind the sticks a little bit with longer down-and-distances (and then suddenly they can look very stoppable).
It’s my opinion that this exact phenomenon is to blame for why media and observers are constantly vacillating on Lamar between calling him the most dynamic QB in the NFL, who is virtually impossible to stop, and then going way too far the other way when things don’t go as well, and claiming he sucks and will never win a title. I think the latter perspective is extremely flawed, and that he very obviously can win a title, and frankly should be favored to do so this year. But my point is Baltimore’s offense fundamentally feels unstoppable when running well, and then can also feel more broken (than an elite offense should) when things go a little awry. And that’s part of this bet — I don’t think the market is baking in enough risk to Baltimore’s offense right now, given that the Chiefs’ defense has played very well this year.
As for the Chiefs’ offense, one of the most interesting stats I saw this week was the Chiefs’ drop rate splits, boosted by Adam Harstad.
Splits data can be misleading, but this is like eight years of data, and shows that not only do the Chiefs’ WRs have higher drop rates in night games at Arrowhead, but that opponents’ WRs also do. And the gap in rates is substantial.
I’m willing to buy that one of the league’s oldest stadiums, opened in the 1970s, has a lighting issue that makes balls difficult to track at night. The reason this is so interesting is while it doesn’t suddenly make Patrick Mahomes’ receiving corps elite, it does potentially boost what has felt like a fatal flaw. All year, the Chiefs have struggled to convert plays on the other end of Mahomes’ throws.
And that’s so essential because if you’ve been watching the Chiefs this postseason, Mahomes has been at the top of his game. I’ve had to laugh when I’ve seen people focus solely on his numbers for this discussion, because the opportunities that have been there for the big plays that are so crucial to your efficiency numbers looking stellar — Mahomes is doing everything he can on his end of those plays right now. He deserves to have elite QB numbers, particularly in the playoffs (and his numbers do look great, for the record). But I mean you have to understand context when you look at something like his 18 incompletions in that Miami game. Simply put, he should have completed more of those, for more yards (and especially stuff like yards per attempt, and EPA per dropback, and all of those rate stats).
What was interesting — as it relates to the Arrowhead-at-night drops stat above — was last week in Buffalo his receivers did seem to actually make some more of the plays that were there for them (and suddenly Mahomes went 17-for-23 in a hyperefficient game with massive per-play rate stats). With the way this offense has just needed its pass-catchers to convert the plays that are there, that could absolutely be a key to this game.
Ultimately, even if these things lean in favor of the Chiefs, this is still something of a value bet. I do think the Ravens are the better team here, and I think they can pull away and cover with some late scoring given the way they can run and control the ball (and the way Kansas City will undoubtedly play riskier if trailing).
At the same time, I do very much expect a competitive game. What I’m essentially saying is the way Baltimore wins lends itself to the scoreline looking less competitive than the game actually was, while the way Kansas City wins is if they can keep Baltimore close, and then Mahomes ascends in the key moments late, like we know he’s extremely capable of. And because of that part of it, I like getting +185 on Mahomes and the Chiefs. If it is indeed a tight, one-score game late, I’d probably pay -150 to be on Kansas City’s side.