Betting Quality over Quantity and Why Justin Herbert is in line for a Monster Season
Through playing high stakes fantasy football and now into my short betting career, a valuable lesson I have learned and begun to understand a bit is the idea that there really aren’t a ton of edges to be gained in this space. It’s why when you turn on a betting show on TV, go listen to a podcast and then hop on Youtube all looking for the best NFC South betting picks this year you might hear three totally different opinions on teams to bet on.
And while it’s very important to make sure we’re hearing both the positives and negatives to each potential outcome, a lot of times this isn’t actionable.
People who are “content creators” have a specific goal in mind: create content consistently on a daily/weekly basis for their audience. Social media sites then reward the consistent posting in the algorithm that help them reach a bigger audience.
In this process of trying to create daily content for your audience there’s this need to analyze every team and every player. Generally this is a good thing as we want as much information as possible on each angle we can get in this space. But a problem that can arise is now there is less clarity than we had before. And to be placing bets we want to be confident and genuinely feel like our bet has an edge.
In a truly efficient market there could be legitimate cases to be made for every single team at their respective odds on sportsbooks, but it doesn’t mean that it will be profitable long term. And the longer the market has been up and had time to mature with people placing money, the more efficient the markets will become as lines will move with action. In fact, sportsbooks would almost prefer that their money gets spread out as evenly as possible in these markets.
The reason I say this and preface this is not because I’m here to say anything bad about anyone that creates this content, in fact I have the utmost respect for people who are able to consistently do it this. It’s more to enforce the idea of being extremely selective in these markets and approaching with the mindset of “quality over quantity”.
By staying disciplined and selective in markets that we know are created with the intention for us to lose long term by betting into these markets, to become profitable we have to change how we look at these markets.
When I mention these markets I’m talking mainly about futures like Division winners, Super Bowl winners, MVP, etc. If you aren’t one of the first to these markets to get the best price then sometimes it’s really hard to even find any edge at all.
This is where we get to use our brains and get a little bit creative. We can still find fun ways to bet on specific teams we are high on without going into these markets and a lot of times there are edges here.
So by pinpointing one or two teams we think are undervalued this year and line shopping across all these different markets we can start to plant our flag in different spots.
Here’s a quick recap of some of the markets available and how many bets we have placed in these markets so far. Mind you a lot of these bets we were one of the first on the market to get and a lot of the odds moved meaning if we were to be betting into these markets now these numbers would be even lower.
Win totals: 10 teams
Super Bowl winners: Two early on
MVP: Two
Coach of the year: One
Rookie of the year: One
Division winners: Four (All have significantly moved)
Conference Winners: Three (all longshots)
And here’s a glimpse of what I would be comfortable betting if I were entering the market today with what I feel like is an edge.
Win totals: Two
Super Bowl winners: One
MVP: One
Coach of the year: One
Rookie of the year: One
Division Winners: One
Conference Winners: One
This is obviously my opinion and I’m not always going to be right, but I want to re-enforce is that 95% of the bets in these markets aren’t really in consideration for me. There’s really only one or two bets maximum that I’m comfortable betting at this time.
That’s how selective we should be.
And honestly that’s one thing I love about having this avenue to create content is I’m not forced to create content. I want to create content that is meaningful and extremely well researched and be putting my name behind stuff that I truly believe in. I also believe the best content comes from inspiration and fully believing and taking a few stances. And that’s what you’re going to get from me.
I’ve created three pieces of content in the past four months for Stealing Lines because of this. There’s obviously going to be a lot more coming because as the season approaches we will be getting more and new lines. But the term quality over quantity is something that I think is extremely important when it comes to betting and being profitable long term.
Last year the two teams we identified as undervalued on the market were the Chiefs and Eagles as both made the Super Bowl. Obviously this was a pretty insane turnout and ended up going as well as it possibly could have, but that’s not to be expected to run that well honestly ever.
What I want to highlight is the type of bets we were placing. Neither of us played the Chiefs or Eagles to win the Super Bowl or even their conference. Ben chose to target the Chiefs to win their division as well as hitting some of their alternate win totals up to 13.5 (all of them hit). I chose to play the Eagles to be the number 1 seed in the NFC as well as playing some Jalen Hurts passing yard overs and alts.
A lot of times when targeting these teams and betting on them to win the Super Bowl you could be right about every aspect of that team for the season and never get to realize a winning bet because of the randomness of the playoffs.
I think this is very important to think about for this year especially when it comes to targeting some AFC teams. When the following teams are in the same conference it’s easy to make a case for plenty of these teams to potentially come out of it:
Chiefs
Bills
Jets
Jaguars
Ravens
Bengals
Chargers
I don’t think we would be shocked if any of these teams represented the AFC in the Super Bowl this year.
For some of these teams it doesn’t make sense for us to bet into the variance of a team to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Instead we want to think about more controllable aspects we can bet on like a 17 game season with a bigger sample.
We also need to ask ourselves: “If things go right for this team, what is the likely scenario in which that happens?”
Example: If the Jaguars take the next step to be a legit Super Bowl contender it’s likely Calvin Ridley has a big part of it and naturally Lawrence would take an even bigger step into the elite quarterback range. The defense would also be taking a step up from last year.
By betting with this perspective sometimes you can really find some undervalued markets that we can take advantage of.
I know some of this may be longwinded, but one thing that is really important to me with this creative outlet is that I can really break down my process and the things I’m thinking about when placing bets. Not everyone learns the same, but I credit a lot of my learned knowledge in this space from listening to people’s process and really understanding WHY certain bets were being placed.
Hopefully through this outlet not only are we able to make money betting on the NFL together, but my hope is that this is also helping you think about betting in a different way.
With that being said there’s a team that we’ve strategically been betting on this year that both Ben and I are extremely high on. If you’re in our Discord you’ve seen a lot of the bets we have already played. This is a friendly reminder that if you have a subscription to Stealing Lines that the link to our Discord is in your welcome email. We post a high majority of our plays first in there.
Why the Chargers are Primed to Explode on Offense
Chargers are an interesting team that it seems like people are underestimating this season simply because we’ve yet to see them truly hit on expectations despite having Justin Herbert on the team in his young career.
A lot of this is easily explainable from from things like Herbert being a rookie in 2020 (rookie QBs very rarely win), poor defense in 2021, and a plethora of injuries in 2022.
On paper things are as good as they’ve ever been for this offense.
Injuries in 2022
Bad luck really struck this Chargers offense last year as arguably their three most important offensive players outside of Justin Herbert missed time last season.
Three games into the year they lost Rashawn Slater for the season to a biceps injury. As a rookie, Slater finished top 10 amongst all offensive lineman in PFF grade earning 2nd Team All-Pro honors. He’s one of the truly best young lineman in the entire league and having him fully healthy this season will give the Chargers a very formidable offensive line.
Keenan Allen didn’t play his first full game last season until Week 11. Upon coming back in those eight games he played some of his best football ever with a full season pace of 128 receptions, 1,431 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Missing a true stud like Keenan hurt the offense a ton last season.
Mike Williams also was banged up in the middle of last season. He officially missed four games but had a fifth game where he left on the first drive of the game.
Both Mike Williams and Keenan Allen only played four full games with each other last year. The trio of Rashawn Slater, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams didn’t play one full game with each other last season.
In 2021 when all three were healthy the Chargers were the second most efficient offense in terms of points per drive. Herbert also cleared 5,000 passing yards in just his second season.
We obviously can’t assume full health this season for these guys, but we saw the potential that this offense has when all are healthy.
Quentin Johnston
We know that Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are both extremely talented wide receivers, but they added a very key and interesting piece to their offense that could allow them to truly ascend them into the best offense in the league.
Johnston was a first round pick with some impressive comps heading into the league. Using Rotoviz’s Box Score Scout here were the list of players Johnston compares to based on his college production, size and draft position.
Three of his top four comps are elite WRs in the game right now, but the full list does give us some caution and perfectly encapsulates the idea that Johnston is a “boom/bust” type player.
For Johnston it’s easy to argue that he is in probably one of the best situations a first round rookie wide receiver has ever been in to maximize his skillset. He goes to a high volume passing game with an elite quarterback and is playing alongside Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the passing game consistently giving him favorable matchups.
If any indications early on from Justin Herbert are true then Quentin Johnston is going to be “a star”. Herbert mentioned that Johnston has been a “big surprise” so far this camp and is excited to play with him.
https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1686086818469670912?s=20
Adding a potential third stud wide receiver to the mix truly gives this offense a potentially historic ceiling.
Kellen Moore
When Kellen Moore left the Cowboys, he immediately became a highly sought after free agent in the coaching world as the Chargers hired him within days of this happening to run the offense.
Moore has been viewed as a great offensive mind with a focus on the deep passing game. He was hired in 2019 to be the Cowboys offensive coordinator and since then the Cowboys have been an elite offense.
I do think it is important to understand that in the grand scheme of things coaching doesn’t matter a ton in football when all things are equal. Talent naturally prevails and the talent of players will dictate how good a team can generally be. But what does matter with coaching is putting these players in positions to succeed and most importantly playing to the strengths of the talent of the football team.
When referencing some of the offensive stats for the Cowboys it’s important to note that the talent of players like Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Ceedee Lamb have to be given a majority of the credit for why they were so good. Kellen Moore did an incredible job of realizing the talent of the team and relying on the passing attack.
In the margins we saw Moore help implement a deeper passing game for the Cowboys. It could also be argued that the emergence of Michael Gallup and the acquisition of Amari Cooper were a major part of the reason for the massive jump in the deep passing game from 2018 to 2019 rather than Moore totally changing the offense. Regardless, Moore should be given some credit for this.
Dak Prescott went from 7.5 intended air yards per attempt in 2018 to 9.3 intended air yards per attempts in 2019 (Moore’s first season). In 2020 (Lamb/Amari/Gallup) in the 5 games before Dak got hurt the Cowboys were the number 1 scoring team and Dak was pacing for an unsustainable 6,310 passing yards in those 5 games.
The Cowboys offense was obviously loaded but in each season Dak was healthy they ranked top six in scoring as well as finishing first in 2021.
They also finished first in yards in 2019 and 2021 (were first in yards before Dak got hurt in 2020 as well).
It’s clear Moore has proven he won’t hold an offense back and with a similarly talented wide receiver room to what the Cowboys had in 2020 prior to Dak getting hurt we were truly seeing historic numbers from him.
There’s no reason to think that with the talent the Chargers have accumulated on offense that there can’t be similar results this season and in the future with Moore running the ship.
Understanding Justin Herbert’s Short Career
We have now witnessed Herbert for three years in the NFL and has quickly developed into a young stud QB in the league.
Herbert had arguably the most impressive rookie season of all-time from a QB shattering the passing yardage and touchdowns for a rookie.
We’ve seen Herbert have a similar theme with him through all three seasons: high volume passing game with decent but unspectacular efficiency.
You could look at the stats and argue that because he’s not as efficient as some of the other elite QBs that he might be overrated. I’d push back a lot on that as it should be viewed as a skill to earn the trust to be amongst the league leaders in pass attempts each season. Also with higher volume it’s tougher to keep up insane efficiency.
There’s a reason Patrick Mahomes is so special because he is able to sustain high levels of efficiency with insanely high yearly passing volume.
Even without Herbert being insanely efficient he’s still been able to put up crazy high seasonal passing totals in each of his first three years. He topped 5,000 yards in just his second season and has the most passing yards all-time for a QB in their first three seasons.
Last year was also an anomaly for Herbert as we saw the deep passing game we have loved from him in his first two years start to diminish in 2022. In 2020 and 2021 we saw him have an average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.8 and 7.9 respectively. Last year it went all the way down to 7.0.
While it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why it cratered it’s likely a combination of the following factors:
worse offensive line due to Slater injury
injuries to Keenan/Mike Williams (still had 7.2 aDOT with them and 6.7 without them)
Joe Lombardi’s offense
focus on Austin Ekeler in the receiving game
It’s fair to say outside of Austin Ekeler (who demanded a trade this offseason) that none of these should be an issue heading into next season.
What Does this Mean for Herbert in 2023?
Actions speak louder than words is a phrase said a ton, but it’s very true when it comes to deciphering what to filter out between what is noise and what is real. Teams show us what their plans are for the season based on personnel moves. It’s why training camp talk is sometimes overrated and I mostly tune out the things coaches say during this time.
What the Chargers have shown us this offseason is they are doubling down on the passing game. Two of their biggest moves this offseason were hiring Kellen Moore, a pass friendly coach, and drafting Quentin Johnston when wide receiver wasn’t necessarily a big need for them.
They also didn’t sign or draft any type of running back who is a bruiser and can handle a workload of carries to compliment Ekeler. They’re all-in on the passing game.
We can feel very confident that the Chargers are going to be near the league leaders in passing attempts and plays run again this season. In fact in Ben’s projections he has the Chargers with the most plays run and pass attempts in the league.
This seems to be a constant and confident bet that we could make that the volume will be there. And we’ve seen Herbert put up ridiculous season long numbers without being crazily efficient.
The question we need to ask ourselves is: “What if Herbert has a very efficient season on this volume?”
There’s potential for him to break the all-time single season passing record.
And how far fetched is the idea that he could have a very efficient season? It’s not as far fetched as we would think.
This is by far the best situation he’s ever been in with a great offensive line, three potentially great wide receivers, pass friendly coach that will help push the ball downfield, and an extremely pass friendly and fast paced offense.
On paper you really couldn’t draw it up any better. Assuming everybody stays healthy Herbert truly could have an all-time season.
So how do we best capitalize on this potential outcome in the betting market?