Betting on the Ravens could be a gold mine this year
I want to fire off as many of my stances and beliefs on how the 2023 will play out before the season starts up in Substack for everyone reading here to be able to bet on with us. There’s a lot of this that I’ve played in the Discord that unfortunately doesn’t make it to the Substack due to lines moving or me not wanting to bombard you constantly with emails every single time there is a new play.
There’s a natural filtration process when it comes to those bets and what I ultimately put out here for you to read. When creating Stealing Lines we wanted to have a bigger outlet for some longer form content (Substack) while also balancing the fact that we have to get out plays quickly before some lines inevitably move (Discord).
I know I mention this every time in my posts, but if you have a subscription it is HIGHLY encouraged that you get in our Discord to make sure you are getting the full value of your sub. If you’re looking for where to find the link to get in, it should be in your “Welcome” email to Stealing Lines.
What I’m going to be firing off here over the next few days is some of my bigger stances this offseason that have been played in Discord, but bets that are still widely available to be bet on. I want to make sure I get out as many takes and bets here for everyone before the season starts.
Ravens philosophy change
The Ravens entire offseason has suggested a philosophy shift with the offense. They signed Lamar to a big contract this offseason and likely want more longevity with him in the league and that is through passing the ball more and getting the right players around him to make that happen.
Through Lamar’s career the Ravens have invested the fewest amount of combined money and draft capital in the wide receiver position since he’s been their QB.
This year they have done a 180 with bringing in Odell Beckham to a big deal and then drafting Zay Flowers with their first round pick.
With a receiving core of Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, Lamar went from a weak passing attack to arguably one of the better ones in the league.
They brought in Todd Monken at offensive coordinator, who helped orchestrate the number one passing offense in 2018 with Tampa Bay and fourth ranked in 2017.
Here’s a great article of a break down of what we could expect with a Monken lead offense by Jonas Shaffer of the Baltimore Banner.
Greg Roman left as the offensive coordinator this year and it’s important to note that he ran some of the slowest offenses in the entire NFL with minimal no huddle in the system. The Ravens ranked first, seventh and fourth in pace of play the three seasons prior to Greg Roman taking over as offensive coordinator.
During Roman’s tenure as Ravens offensive coordinator they ranked in the bottom seven in pace of play in each of the four seasons.
Monken should certainly speed things up as Tampa Bay had a pace of play ranked 12th, sixth and second in his three seasons with them.
How does that effect Lamar?
Injuries are certainly a concern with Lamar as he has never played a full season, but this philosophical shift at least points to them trying to find ways to keep Lamar on the field with putting him in more advantageous situations for his health.
It’s clear they are putting the correct pieces in place to help Lamar be an even more dynamic passer than he has been at this point in his career.
Lamar has also been decently efficient as a passer in his career with 7.4 YPA, but his biggest issue has been volume. Lamar has never passed for more than 401 passing attempts in an entire season for his career!
The expectation with the faster paced offense is more opportunities overall for everyone.
Breakdown of Ravens weapons
Mark Andrews
I don’t really know what needs to be said about Andrews. He’s an elite tight end and the top option in this offense.
Not much will change with him as the passing attack runs through him.
Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman is entering his third season after coming off a couple injury ridden season to start his young career. Heading into the league Bateman checked all the boxes we are looking for in a wide receiver as he was a:
1st round pick
Elite early production in college
21 years old and an early declare
Great athlete
Bateman started off his rookie year with an injury causing him to miss games early in the year. When he got back he played a bit with Lamar and Tyler Huntley and wasn’t efficient and underwhelmed overall.
Last year he only played in six games but in those games he looked much closer to the prospect and player we thought he would be. He had a target on 25% of his routes run and had 2.38 yards per route run last season, very impressive and promising numbers.
He could be viewed as a post hype sleeper certainly with the talent to be a major force in this offense.
Zay Flowers
Investing a first round pick into Flowers was certainly a bet on his talent and so far through training camp and preseason he has been getting rave reviews.
Odell Beckham went even as far as to mention that he mentioned that he think Zay Flowers is a name to watch amongst the league best wide receivers soon.
https://twitter.com/koestreicher34/status/1698472540056756625?s=20
Am I buying that completely? I don’t know, but he does offer an intriguing profile and my comp for him coming out was Golden Tate. He can win in all three areas of the field and has great yards after catch ability.
Regardless Flowers adds another dynamic option to this passing attack.
Odell Beckham
The Ravens paid a high price for Odell with a $15 million dollar contract for one year including a whopping $13,835,000 signing bonus. Simply based off that contract it’s clear the Ravens have a plan for him and wanted to add more firepower to the offense.
This also could’ve been a negotiation tactic for Lamar as this was all going on when things were looking rough with the contract situation.
Odell hasn’t played a down since the Super Bowl when he tore his ACL and sat out an entire year to get healthy. He should be 100% heading into the season, but realistically his best football is likely behind him.
Odell can still be a fun piece for this offense as the Ravens have four fun exciting weapons to work with and boost Lamar up.
Can Lamar win MVP again?
The competition for MVP has surely risen with the breakouts of young guys like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen since Lamar won in 2019.
Lamar went on to win MVP mainly by his insane rushing performance and his ungodly passing TD rate that lead him to victory despite only throwing for 3,127 passing yards.
I wanted to see if there was any correlation to fantasy finishes for QBs and MVP award and they’re all near or at the top of the list (not surprising). Of the past 10 years, six of the top fantasy finishers won the MVP award. The four that didn’t finish as QB1 had the following finishes:
Ryan 2016 (QB2)
Brady 2017 (QB3)
Rodgers 2020 (QB3)
Rodgers 2021 (QB6)
It was also interesting that Hurts was QB1 in points per game last year and was the favorite before getting hurt. We also know team wins account towards MVP voting as well.
Fantasy football markets tend to be pretty efficient in terms of understanding player production for the upcoming season and Lamar is consistently going as a top four QB indicating that maybe he’s undervalued amongst the top guys. I want to make it clear that I’m not saying that this is necessarily a good way of looking at the MVP markets, but I’m simply making the case that Lamar is viewed closely to those guys by sharp players, but the MVP market he’s in a different tier.
No QB has ever rushed for 800+ yards and thrown for 4,000+ yards in the same season before. If Lamar were to hit these marks he would certainly be high in the running for the award. The Ravens are also a perennial playoff team and wouldn’t be shocking to see them finish amongst the best in the AFC this year.
As crazy as it sounds, I wouldn’t totally be stunned if he has his best year yet this season.
Is it JK Dobbins szn?
Dobbins is honestly one of the few RBs I'm heavily in on this year. I believe he's undervalued heading into this season as he is fully healthy for the first time since his rookie year. A lot of this is going to be a similar process we had with Saquon Barkley last year where we know RBs coming off an ACL (in Dobbins case a little more complex than normal ACL) tend to see a decline in production their first year back. It's in their second year that we tend to see them return back to their normal selves.
Even though the eye test on Dobbins last year was a bit spotty, the efficiency was still off the charts with 5.7 yards per carry after rushing for 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie. The Ravens eased him in last year, but now with a full offseason everything looks wheels up for Dobbins. The Ravens made no moves this offseason to add any sort of talent behind Dobbins in the running game.
Dobbins was an elite prospect coming out of Ohio State and had an incredible rookie year with efficiency comps giving him Alvin Kamara, Maurice Jones-Drew and Demarco Murray as similar statistical comps after his rookie season.
Even with these injuries to Dobbins and the Ravens running out RBs like Gus Edwards, Latavius Murray, etc. the past three years, the Ravens still had the 5th highest rushing TDs by RB per attempt in this span. Even with a new potentially more pass-heavy offense being installed, this could open up more opportunities near the goal line for Dobbins this year to punch in TDs.
Mind you, he had 9 TDs as a rookie on only 134 carries.
There's massive upside here.
Best bets for the Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP +1600 (Fanduel)
It’s very concentrated at the top. I’d be pretty shocked if any longshot won the award this year.
Lamar is tiered below the top guys despite having the talent and resume to suggest he’s a legitimate candidate every single year.
Risk .2 units to win 3.2 units
Play to +1500