Betting 101 and markets
A quick breakdown of important betting concepts to understand
If you’re unfamiliar with how betting works or want a little refresher on some basics, than this is for you.
Being a profitable bettor is not easy; there’s a reason sportsbooks had over $8 billion in revenue in just the last three-and-a-half years.
When we understand how sportsbooks make money, it can help give us guidance on what and what not to do when betting.
What are implied odds?
Let’s use Justin Herbert’s season long passing yards prop as an example.
You’ll see how both sides are priced at -110. If you had a unit size of $100 dollars, you would need to bet $110 to win $100.
The implied probability based on a -110 line is 52.38%. Basically if we feel that there’s a higher probability than 52.38% on Herbert hitting either the over or under on this, we should play it.
Notice how the sportsbooks are getting 52.38% on both sides of the bet!
How do lines move?
As sportsbooks set lines, they are not all going to be perfect. While they are usually pretty good at this, there are mistakes along the way, especially in the player prop market.
Most sportsbooks have very efficient lines on spreads and totals due to the handle, or amount of money being bet on these markets. Where they aren’t as efficient is in the prop market.
They drop hundreds of player props on both a season-long and weekly basis, and it’s nearly impossible for all those lines to be correct!
When the lines drop, bettors will start betting them. When a sportsbook gets too much action on one side of the bet, they will move the line to reduce their risk. The sportsbooks are always taking the other side of the bet.
Here’s an example:
Trey Lance originally dropped at a line of 9.5 with -110 on the over. I, as well as others, hit the over at that original price. Due to lopsided bets on the over, sportsbooks adjusted, moving both the line and odds.
If you’re curious, here is more good info on line movement.
What is closing line value?
Closing line value is a vital part of being a profitable bettor. Let’s say we bet a line right when a sportsbook drops it, and then the line moves in our favor, like the Lance interception example above. We have now gained closing line value, or “CLV”.
CLV not only takes advantage of inefficient lines, but it gives us the flexibility to implement other strategies such as hedging to guarantee a profit, or middling.
Here is a great breakdown of why CLV is so important.
The advantage of having multiple sportsbooks
When shopping for anything in life, especially online, it’s normal to search for the best prices. Why shouldn’t we do the same when making bets?
Having multiple sportsbooks is probably the most important part to being a profitable sports bettor. You can gain tons of edges by simply searching through all the sportsbooks available to you for the best line or price on a bet.
We will be using lines from as little as five and up to 10 sportsbooks in our Discord for our plays.
Here are more reasons why you should have multiple sportsbooks.