Week 6 Review
There are always bumps in the journey as a sports bettor and dealing with the ups and downs can be extremely tough. I talked about this quite a bit after a brutal week 1 where it was the worst betting week I’ve ever had.
Bouncing back is never easy and a lot of times it’s slowly step by step making progress and with a solid process in which those results will manifest over a longer period of time.
And this shouldn’t be a big announcement or anything but I’m extremely proud to say after 5.57 units of profitability in Week 6, that we are officially in the black betting props on Stealing Lines.
I know it may seem stupid, but I personally take so many life lessons away from my gambling journey, whether it was first card counting or now sports betting.
The mental battles it takes to lose large amounts of money not only for myself but for other people who are relying on quality analysis, is extremely tough.
I want to reiterate I’m never looking for sympathy in these moments, but rather just trying to be as transparent as possible because this stuff happens all the time. It’s something I take very seriously and at the end of the day I want everyone who takes the time out of their week or day to read the newsletter and follow along in the discord to take away with them.
Whether it’s anything in life when it comes to hardships one thing I’ve learned is that when things seem at their worst, is that hope and faith that things will get better is all we can rely on.
In these moments it seems like all hope is lost and nothing will change but the truth is there is things ahead in the future that we can not foresee happening.
There were plenty of negative thoughts that entered my brain after week 1 and it’s honestly great to get to the other side of it.
I genuinely didn’t expect it to be Week 7 and for us to already be in the black but here we are. It’s a long journey ahead but it’s so great to be back!
Underdog Pick ‘Em of the Week
At this point it feels like a weekly piece where I vent about how our Pick ‘Em of the week miraculously lost on a single play while the others hit convincingly.
We hit on every part of the play last week except for Josh Downs over 45.5 receiving yards. Somehow Gardner Minshew threw for 330 passing yards and Downs failed to hit this mark.
*Sigh*
This now marks three of five Pick ‘Ems that I’ve played here in which we have won four of the five plays and the fifth somehow missing by the slimmest of margins.
Well time to shake it off and run it back.
You can tail here
I decided to shake it up a bit and only create a three leg Pick ‘Em this time around.
One of my favorite plays of the week is Garnder’s under due to how excellent the Browns have been at stopping the pass and how big of a run funnel defense they are.
Sticking to our main nature of correlation, I had to put Taylor’s attempts over. And because of that I wanted to add the Browns highest projected tackler in this. If the Jonathan Taylor is running the ball more, that naturally means more opportunities for Owusu-Koramoah to earn tackles.
Best Bets for Week 7
*Lines are accurate as of 7:54 AM ET
Jaleel McLaughlin over 32.5 rushing yards -117 (BetRivers/Unibet) + alts
Fanduel 33.5 -110
McLaughlin 50+ yards +220 (DraftKings)
McLaughlin 70+ yards +650 (DraftKings)
Jaleel has been a stud this year and is 2nd amongst all RBs in yards after contact per attempt behind Achane. He’s been great and saw 41% of the RB attempts last game. The Packers are the biggest run funnel defense in the league and are 27th in explosive rush rate allowed. Incredible matchup for an underrated RB.
Risk 1.17 units to win 1 unit
Play to 35.5
Risk .2 units to win .44 units on 50 yards
Play to +200
Risk .1 units to win .65 units at 70 yards
Play to +600