Week 5 Review
The man himself De’Von Achane has been a money maker over the past couple weeks as he has hit all of his ladders and just been an animal on the field breaking all efficiency records in the process.
It allowed me to be up 4.23 units last week, mainly on the back of Achane.
As every week there were some good wins and some tough losses.
Puka Nacua had 66 yards receiving until he got a -9 yard reception due to a fumble that brough him back to 57 yards. On the last play of the game he caught a 14 yard pass to finish at 71. So even though it ended up being a complete suck out it could be argued it would’ve been an extremely bad beat if we lost due to the official rule scoring on fumbles.
KJ Osborn naturally hit his over when Justin Jefferson went down so there is nothing we can really do about that.
Miles Sanders ended up getting a little bit banged up working in our favor.
All in all just about an average week where we had one player carry the load for us and turn into a positive week.
Thoughts + Week 6 Preview
Heading into the last couple of weeks the sheer number bets I’ve been placing each weeks have toned down a little bit. The reason for this can be attributed to bye weeks and an influx of injuries this year. But also just due to what has been going on in my life as there has been some distractions that have kind of kept me out of routine a little bit this week.
I never would half-ass any bets I place, but I usually am placing 15-20 props a week and right now I think my count is at like 11 which is less than usual and it’s mainly been a time thing for me this week.
I normally don’t like getting too personal about what is going on in my life but this week was a bit different and to be honest my mind hasn’t been in a completely good spot for most of the week.
I’m fully Jewish with family members in Israel right now and the whole situation out there has been gut wrenching. I had a really hard time earlier in the week really focusing on football research when that was on my mind the entire time. I’m so lucky to have a great support group of friends/family that have reached out to me.
I obviously don’t want to get political in any way shape or form as I don’t follow politics closely or really at all. But I have seen some very hurtful things this past week on social media in terms of justifying the attacks of innocent civilians.
I’m never here to tell people how to think or act about anything, but I also think it is very important to get educated on what is actually happening right now and what this could mean for not only Jews in Israel, but around the world as well.
Anyways I love each and every one of you who follow and support us here and felt the need to share that briefly as it’s been heavy on my heart this week.
On a more positive note if you guys don’t know I’m a diehard Arizona sports fan. So with the Diamondbacks having an unexpected run to the NLCS, that’s naturally taken away time from my normal routine during the week. It was an unforgettable experience getting to be at Game 3 when we beat the Dodgers to move on.
I plan on going to every home game out here during the NLCS as well. Being an AZ sports fan we don’t get these opportunities often so want to embrace that.
And if you’re looking for a fun team to bandwagon for the playoffs why not join the Dbacks? Reminds me of that fun Bengals team in 2021 that nobody expected to make it far so soon with some good young players.
Thursday Night
Thursday night went well as we only placed one bet and it was on Mahomes passing over and a 300+ yard alternate line we got at +182.
So starting off the week up 1.36 units is never a bad thing. Maybe I’m superstitious a bit but it feels like every week we have done well on Thursday night it’s been a bad Sunday and vice versa. So here’s to hoping that we can finally have both go our way.
Underdog Review
As I was out of town last week I barely had any Underdog plays so there will be no official review of how I personally did on the Pick Ems.
But what is very frustrating is this is now the second time in four weeks of doing Underdog Pick ‘Ems that the “Play of the week” was a five player entry that lost on the final player by one single stat.
If you remember week two Ryan Tannehill had 20 completions when we needed under 19.5 for a 20x payout. And this week we needed Stafford for over 37.5 attempts for a 20x payout and he ended with 37.
So I mean I haven’t officially correctly touted a Pick ‘Em entry so far since I’ve started throwing them in here, but gosh dang it feels like we’ve got robbed a couple times.
This is also a friendly reminder that if you use this link or use the code “STEALINGLINES” when signing up for Underdog you get a 100% match bonus up to $500!
Change in Strategy
This past week Underdog has made some alterations to their Pick ‘Em format. We no longer can correlate pass attempts and rush attempts on the same team anymore.
I know I wrote up some long winded things around that idea and how they worked so well together, but not all hope is lost.
We are able to still correlate things like passing yards with rushing attempts, or passing yards with rushing yards or better yet passing yards with receiving yards.
The cool thing we can still do is correlate fantasy points between a QB and WR.
For example something like this:
This is a new format I’m going to implementing across a lot of my plays. In scenarios in a half PPR format where the WR1 for a QB goes higher/lower their fantasy point mark, this increases the likelihood that the QB will then go higher/lower on theirs.
Pick ‘Em of the Week
This is as simple as we know the Jaguars are a pass funnel defense and Garnder overs was one of my plays this week. Josh Downs has been a big target for Minshew when he has been playing this year. And if this game script naturally leans this way it should mean more opportunities for Etienne and less for Lawrence.
You can tail here
Best Bets of the week
Joe Mixon under 62.5 rushing yards -113 (BetRivers/Unibet)
The Seahawks have been menaces to opposing RBs this year allowing only 2.6 YPC and are the 2nd ranked Rush D DVOA team in the league.
On top of this the Bengals offense has the third highest pass rate over expected on the season despite Burrows injury. Last week the passing offense got back on track and Burrow looked a bit healthier, would expect another pass heavy performance.
Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Play to 59.5