Best Plays for Week 2 and Weekly Specials

Last week was such a fun one. Nothing like hitting a 40/1 banger right off the rip.

In week 1, I was officially up 8.49 units. It’s pretty absurd to be up that much in one week, but we know with my style of betting a lot of long shots there is going to be more variance in my week to week results than most bettors.

Think of me like a power hitter in baseball. You know a majority of the time that they’re going to strikeout or produce minimal results, but sometimes they hit some home runs and it makes it all worth it.

Over the course of the year we love looking back and looking at the production of those power hitters, but a lot of times we forgot how on a game by game basis it may have been frustrating and there were slumps along the way.

What I’m trying to say is there is likely going to be weeks that are tough and frustrating. I sure hope it doesn’t happen and we continue to hit 40/1 bangers every week, but the reality is it’s probably not going to happen.

If we approach betting these plays with this mindset it will help us stay structured in our unit sizings.

I’ve seen friends go on winning streaks before and then suddenly start betting double what they normally do only to immediately go on a losing streak right after.

Just because we won a lot last week, we should still be using the same unit sizing for this week unless you do have the proper bankroll to sustain a bump in units.

I feel like that was something I did feel the need to share because some people here are newer to betting and want to make sure we are becoming smarter about our bets together.

Week 1 Recap

I went 17-28 on my bets last week up 8.49 units. Massive shoutout to Dan Rivera for tracking all of our bets. You can click right here to see all of the bets we make each week and the results.

Saquon Barkley being a 6 unit winner helps a ton and overall we didn’t have the best Sunday.

After going 3-1 on props on Thursday night I was up 2.7 units so technically outside of the Saquon bet we were down 0.21 units on Sunday.

To give myself credit here we bet four Julio Jones alternate lines spanning in 10 yard increments from 70-100. Julio had 69 yards midway through the second quarter and failed to record another catch after that. If that had hit in any capacity it would have been an even better week. It was tilting but that stuff happens.

Week 2 Preview

It’s crazy that we have already started off the week on fire without really having to sweat much.

Those in Discord were able to get all of the best lines as we had a crazy week where the sportsbooks made some pretty massive mistakes and we were able to take advantage for some big CLV (closing line value) games.

I’m so thankful we have like minded individuals in our discord that are able to spot some of these mispricings and notify us in the chat. We were able to play plenty of head to head matchups that the sports books clearly mispriced.

For example we got Marquise Brown to have more receiving yards than Hunter Renfrow this week at +115 despite Marquise Brown’s receiving line being almost 20 yards higher than Renfrows.

There were plenty other examples of this.

We had a rare opportunity with the Weekly Specials on FanDuel this week.

We got the following plays at these prices and here’s how they ended up at one point:

Tee Higgins most receiving yards on Sunday 70/1 > 5/1

For those who were able cashed this out for 8.2x profit with no sweat!

Greg Dortch most receiving yards on Sunday 300/1 > 18/1

We cashed this out for 10.7x profit with no sweat!

So we basically started the week hitting a +820 and +1070 bet without having any games being played. This is an extremely rare occurrence and we probably won’t see it again.

These were clear mistakes that we took advantage of and gives us some extra wiggle room this week.

Here are some other plays we saw move a lot since we played:

Trevor Lawrence most passing yards on Sunday 32/1 > 10/1

Darrell Henderson most rushing yards on Sunday 35/1 > 9/1

Jeff Wilson most rushing yards on Sunday 49/1 > 18/1

This week was extremely fun due to all the mispricings so we should be able to capitalize big time if we hit.

This is why it is so important if you are subscribed to be in our Discord to get everything in real time. With how quick some of these markets move we are unable to write up and get things out to Substack in real time.

If you are subscribed and want to get in our Discord, use the link you got in the welcome email to join.

Week 2 Plays

All lines are accurate at the time of publishing.

Cordarelle Patterson under 12.5 rushing attempts -115 (MGM)

We originally played Patterson at 50.5 rushing yards, but that line has moved a little so this is the best play.

Adding more on here for half unit.

Patterson hit this over in five games last year, four of those five games the Falcons won.

Patterson’s carries in wins: 11.9 Patterson’s carries in losses: 7.8

Everything indicates they don’t want to use Patterson in a rushing role, but they had to out of necessity.

Mind you the talent around Patterson last year was not good, yet this was his usage. Damien Williams got hurt after getting the first two carries and their third string RB is a converted CB who is a special teamer.

Most importantly the Falcons were up 16 points leading towards a game script that favored running the ball.

The Falcons are 10 point underdogs vs the well rested Rams.

Tyler Allegeir will be active and should take a few carries away from Patterson.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 units

Play to -120