Week 8 Review
Last week might’ve been one of the most normal weeks I’ve had betting in a while.
We placed 14 straight bets and none of the bets were close. Depending on the bets you looked at, I either looked like an absolute genius or an idiot.
All the bets that won either won by a considerable margin or when we took unders they just never seemed close to going over.
On the flip side, some of the ones that lost look absolutely brutal in hindsight due to how the games played out.
Overall, we went up 2.00 units on the week now bringing the total tally on the year to a solid +31.02 units.
This now gives us eight of the nine weeks that we’ve bet have been profitable.
A good start to the year to say the least.
Because of the outcomes of this week there’s really no lucky/unlucky plays so we will skip that for this week.
NBA Plays in Discord
The NBA season is now underway and in full swing which means our boy Mike Braude has started giving out plays at his leisure in the Discord.
Over the past two seasons Mike has an awesome record on straight NBA player props of 284-214 (57%) being profitable in both years.
So far this year he’s 5-1 on his plays.
It should be noted and made very clear that Mike has a very busy schedule and other obligations to where he only throws plays up in his spare time and/or wants to play them.
Because of this we never want to promise anything and hence why we don’t offer an NBA subscription package.
We consider it a free added value boost to our current subs.
If you are considering being a subscriber just for the NBA plays, I’d advise against it.
While Mike has certainly proven he can be profitable doing this - you could absolutely get your moneys worth out of a sub for this even with his limited plays - the hope would be that you are subbing for both Ben and my weekly picks with this as an added bonus when Mike is available.
So if you were on the verge of getting a sub already, I’d encourage you to take the leap and join us.
And even more important: if you are a subscriber and are not in our Discord you’re missing out on getting the full value of your subscription.
Best Bets for Week 9
Jerome Ford Under 7.5 Rushing Attempts -130 (Bet365)
Reasoning:
Backfield Dynamics:
Pre-injury: Equal split with Foreman before Chubb returned
Current situation: Three-way backfield
Nick Chubb's Usage:
Week 7: 69% of RB carries
Week 8: 76% of RB carries
Clear workhorse role established
Backup Role Competition:
Ford splitting backup carries with Foreman
No clear hierarchy between backups
Offensive Context:
Jameis Winston at QB could lead to more passing
Previous game plan influenced by pass funnel defense
Line Analysis:
Current line suggests Ford is clear backup
Significant perceived edge in current line
Notes:
This bet is a bit crazy and one of the more mis-priced ones I’ve seen this season.
Chubb is the clear workhorse and Foreman has been quite involved because Ford hasn’t been that good this year.
I would honestly price this at like 3.5 or 4.5 carries.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.95 units to win 1.5 units
Play to: 6.5 attempts at -130