Week 7 Review
Last week was a very profitable week as we went up 7.3 units on the week.
We started off very strong with a banger of. a Thursday night and saw very similar success heading into Sunday.
It felt like last week we had it all: some big wins that were extremely lucky and a bad beat that will almost certainly go down as the worst beat of the season.
2024 Season Review
Some total stats for the season up to this point:
Overs: 19-17 (-0.20 units)
Unders: 45-25 (+17.24 units)
Alts: 14-25 (+11.99 units)
Total record: 78-67 (+29.03 units)
The overs after the past few weeks have been strong, going 9-5 on overs in the last three weeks.
Unders still continue to be the bread and butter as we’ve been 21-14 over the last three weeks.
And the alts have been running hot quite a bit this season as of the nine plays we’ve taken an alt on, we’ve hit at least one part of the alt on five of those plays over the last three weeks.
Good Variance
Deshaun Watson under 185.5 passing yards
Deshaun Watson had 129 in the second quarter of the game where he already had 128 passing yards.
He ended up having a torn achilles on the play that not only took him out for the game but the season as well.
This is now our 2nd win on a mid game injury this year an a bet that certainly would’ve lost if this weren’t the case
Kendre Miller 20/25/30+ rushing yards
The Thursday Night game ended up being an absolute whooping where the Saints got demolished.
Miller had an eight yard run in the first quarter and only saw his second carry in the third quarter.
It wasn’t until the game was an absolute blowout at 3-33 where the Saints waived the white flag and brought in Kendre Miller to get four carries on the last drive of the game where he proceeded to have a 16 yard run and a nine yard run to finish at 36 rushing yards for the game in an inconsequential moment.
Bad Variance
Baker Mayfield under 14.5 rushing yards
This one was brutal.
On the last drive of the game - the same one where Chris Godwin unfortunately had a season ending injury - the Bucs were down 10 points with like 40 seconds left to play.
It was clear after the Godwin injury that the Bucs had zero shot to win or even score a TD here.
With 18 seconds left in the game Baker dropped back and missed a wide open Sean Tucker in the middle of the field for an incompletion. Had he caught the ball there would’ve been 13 seconds on the clock at the time of the catch and the game would’ve most certainly ended as between the rest of the play playing out and the nature of the game, the game simply would’ve ended.
Instead on the next play with 13 seconds left after the Ravens dropped all their guys into coverage, Baker Mayfield scampers for 12 yards and gives himself up in the middle of the field to end the game.
Baker Mayfield had 10 yards rushing before that play and finished with 22 yards on one of the single most brutal beat you could ever have.
For all the bad beats we have ever had in Stealing Lines this one might take the cake.
Thursday Night Review
It wasn’t our best Thursday night where we went 0-2.
I think I had some bad process in having Cooper Kupp over 67.5 receiving yards when I played it on Tuesday. The entire crux of the analysis was that Kupp eats against the blitz without Puka Nacua in the lineup.
While Puka playing on Thursday was a surprise to many including me, he did have a limited practice on Tuesday and there should have at least been a consideration of an outside possibility he played.
My analysis was basically that there was a zero chance, which is why I played it.
When Puka was active, we played Demarcus Robinson under 22.5 receiving yards and things were going great until he caught a 25 yard TD late in the game.
Not the most ideal way to start the week but it’s time to bounce back with a great Sunday.
Best Bets for the Week
Baker Mayfield Under 228.5 Passing Yards Analysis -115 (BetMGM)
Reasoning:
Current Context:
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both out
Recent 370-yard game came against poor pass defense in negative game script
Career Weapons Context:
2019-2021: Jarvis Landry
2020-2021: OBJ
2022: DJ Moore (Carolina)
2023-2024: Godwin and Evans
Comparable Situation Analysis:
Five games with Rams (2022) with similar weapons quality:
Game 1: 230 yards
Game 2: 111 yards
Game 3: 230 yards
Game 4: 132 yards
Game 5: 147 yards
Averaged 170 yards in this span
Career Statistics:
Career average: 231 passing yards per game
With Evans/Godwin: averaged 246 passing yards per game
Current Situation:
Worst receiving corps of his career outside Rams stint
Less than FG underdog (reduced negative game script likelihood)
Potential for increased run game emphasis
Betting Trends:
QBs are 6-1 to their under passing yards prop vs Falcons this year
Conclusion:
We have only seen Baker have quality weapons alongside him in his career to help prop him up as a QB. Armed with backups as his main weapons, we’ve seen him on the Rams with similar talent profiles as he struggled mightily as a passer.
I want to fade Baker here as elite WR weapons can help drastically prop up a QB’s numbers and performance.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Play 1.5 units to: 225.5 yards
Play 1 unit to: 215.5 yards