There’s some good and bad news.
Let’s start with the bad news first: We finally had a losing week on the season with a record of 8-9 on straight plays losing 1.54 units on the week brings us to up 21.73 units on the week heading into week seven.
Considering a week where after the early morning London game we were sitting at 0-4 on the week, it could have ended much worse.
Looking at the entire slate of last week of what we bet I would argue we objectively got unlucky as a whole. Some of our worst beats of the year happened and unders as a whole didn’t fare well this week for us.
Good Variance
AJ Brown over 110.5 receiving yards +500
Finished: 116 receiving yards
We bet some AJ Brown overs and alternate lines. Even though AJ Brown had already hit his over we had bet some alts on him last week.
Heading into the last drive the Eagles were up four points and just needing one first down to put the game away and kneel the ball out. On 2nd and 11 the Eagles threw a deep ball to AJ Brown in single coverage for 40 yards to put him at 116 yards for the day.
That play ended the game as the Eagles kneeled the ball out to win the game.
Super lucky to have hit that.
Bad Variance
Trevor Lawrence under 233.5 passing yards
Finished: 234 passing yards
Yup that’s all you need to know.
The Jaguars were driving on their last drive and when they were in the red zone, the Jaguars had a false start to move them back five yards.
That false start ended up being the difference as it allowed Lawrence the extra five yards passing on that drive to complete the over here.
He never touched the ball afterwards.
Just a brutal beat.
Tank Dell under 56.5 receiving yards
Finished: 57 receiving yards
Wow two in one week?!
Yup that’s all you need to know.
Just absurd here that two total yards was the difference between a winning and a losing week. That’s a swing of 4.26 units!!
Lines are important
It’s pretty ironic that last week I touched on line movement and why it’s important and then the same week we have two props that missed by one yard.
It’s obvious that this stuff is rare and it’s unlikely to happen on a single and individual bet, but over the course of the season this stuff will happen for better or for worse.
How can you get better lines?
Have more sportsbooks and line shop.
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Thursday Night Review
And here’s the good news.
We went 3-0 on our main plays for Thursday night and went up 4.96 units already to start the week!
Both the Courtland Sutton and Alvin Kamara unders were some of the easiest sweat free bets we will have all year.
Sutton finished with zero receptions and Kamara had 10 rushing yards on the evening.
And our lord Kendre Miller came through for us as we played his ladder at 20, 25 and 30 rushing yards on the evening in his season debut finishing with 36 yards.
Best Bets for Week 7
Aaron Jones Under 54.5 Rushing Yards -110 (Bet365)
Reasoning:
Injury Context:
Coming off hip and hamstring injuries
Originally expected to miss around two weeks
Historical Performance Post-Injury:
6 games after injury: 63 carries for 228 yards (3.6 YPC)
Average of 38 rushing yards in these games
Significant drop from career 5.04 YPC
Lions' Defensive Strengths:
2nd biggest pass funnel defense
Elite run defense (2nd in yards after contact allowed)
RBs largely inefficient against Lions this year
RB Performance vs Lions:
Kyren Williams: 18 for 50
Richard White: 10 for 18
James Conner: 9 for 17
Exception: Kenneth Walker 12 for 80
Vikings' Potential Game Script:
Might face first negative game script of the year
Workload Distribution:
Ty Chandler could see increased work due to Jones' injury
Betting Trends:
Starting RB rushing unders against Lions are 4-1 this year
Notes:
Research for the injury part of the play is inspired by Adam Hutchinson of Football Guys
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 49.5 yards