Best bets for Week 3

Plus Week 2 review

Sep 24, 2023

∙ Paid

Week 2 review

After going through it after a brutal week one it was nice to have a bounce back week on the props side of things.

Pushing our chips in on Bijan Robinson paid off immensely as he not only hit his rushing prop, his receiving prop, and his alts, but also he cashed our 30/1 most rushing yards of the week ticket!

I was up 5.6 units total from Week 2 and have started strong again this week going 2-0 on our Thursday night prop bets.

Overall I went 10-7 on my main prop bets and weirdly enough it felt like it could’ve been a lot better.

Losing Kenny Pickett’s under was certainly tilting as the Browns essentially kept him in check all night. It took a couple big Jaylen Warren receptions in which he had over 60 yards of YAC and a 71 yard touchdown to George Pickens that really helped him elevate over his total.

And Anthony Richardson’s 41.5 rushing line after he had 35 yards rushing halfway through the first quarter was really frustrating when he left the game, but that’s part of the struggle with betting overs.

It feels good to get a little back on track.

Week 3 preview

We currently have 17 main props on the for Sunday/Monday with nine under and eight overs played.

Most of these have moved in our favor and have been played in our Discord. This is a friendly reminder that if you’re a subscriber and not in our Discord, make sure to check your “Welcome” email to Stealing Lines and use that link to join.

We took a lot of QB unders this week and a small portion of those were in preparation for the tropical storm heading towards the east coast. While the process felt good about getting ahead of the new, sometimes late on in the week weather forecasts can change as we get more accurate information.

Wind doesn’t look to be much of a factor for the games in Baltimore/Washington DC, but should still have an impact in the Patriots vs Jets game with 15 mph sustained winds.

Overall I’m feeling good about where we stand into the week, where most of our overs are on undervalued rookies who could pop this week and of course Kyle Pitts.

Underdog week 2 review

Our “Play of the Week” last week lost by one simple stat.

Talk about some bad beats.

I mean there’s really not much we can do about this other than just know this stuff is going to happen especially when you need five things to go correctly. Still it’s tough to know how close we were to hitting this on our first time giving out entries!

I’ve been trying to think the best way to be fully transparent with my Underdog results each week and keep everyone updated on how they are going using some of the strategies I talked about in my post last week.

It’s tough because I personally play a lot of Pick Em’s every week and it’s unrealistic for me to be able to share every single one I do. My goal is to give you the bigger picture on HOW to play these and guide you the best way with some of our favorite entries of the week.

I think the best way for now is to just screenshot my record each week and maybe show a play or two that won and how it was constructed.

I played 59 Pick Ems last week ranging from two, three and five plays in each of my entries. The reason I had eight wins was largely in part to some two and three entries that won along with some voids due to some inactive players.

In all honestly we probably got a bit lucky that Williams went out here with injury, but after looking at this play it makes me think about the strategy of taking rushing attempt unders for both RBs on the same team like we did with Sanders and Hubbard.

If the game script is going to dictate towards Bryce Young throwing the ball, they just might abandon the run altogether and neither Hubbard or Sanders would get work. That’s basically what happened.

This was a three player smaller entry from our “Play of the Week” last week that hit based on mainly overtime, but the game was close and this still played out well.

This was a live bet during the Monday night game with Cleveland needing to throw the ball to catch up to Pittsburgh and without Chubb. This was my first time every live betting one of these and it worked out so I’m certainly going to dabble in some of these in the future.

At the end of the day with all three of these we can see how the correlation to game script and other teammates helped these wins. There’s going to be plenty that lose most of the plays, but that’s the nature of what we are doing.

This is a good reminder that if you aren’t an Underdog user yet and want to tail us on these Pick Em’s this year you can use this link or the code “STEALINGLINES” for 100% deposit match up to $500 on your first deposit.

We are also giving out $100 a week in credit on their site to a random sub here for the rest of the season. In order to be eligible for that you must fill out this google form and simply fill out your Underdog username, your email attached to your Stealing Lines subscription, and your discord username.

Underdog Pick Em of the week

You can tail right here

The idea is the Titans are an extremely heavy pass funnel defense and the Browns have an extremely strong secondary. Add those two together and the natural game plan for the Browns should be to throw the ball a bit more against the Titans secondary while the Titans stick true to their brand and fire off plenty of runs to Derrick Henry.

Variations

I wanted to put this piece in because this is something Ben and I chatted about when creating some entries for this week.

There’s a lot of times where we are creating entries within a game, but it can be hard to choose or find the fifth play within that game to add to our entry that we feel fully correlates.

Simple math shows us that we are profiting 9x the amount we play with on a four play entry, while we are getting 19x the amount on a five play entry.

What this is telling us is that we should almost never be putting in four play entries and trying to extend it to five. We also know there is plenty more variance in doing so. So how can we still get our correlated four play within a game, make sure we are adding a fifth entry, and still taking out some of the variance?

Enter our four play special with examples of exactly what Ben and I did.

Ben and I identified these plays within the Chiefs/Bears game we liked.

There wasn’t anything else in the game that stood out to us so here’s what we did.

Let’s say you’re in a similar situation with four selections and you want to find a creative way to add a fifth to the entry.

We want to identify a prop we individually like as our fifth option

For simple math let’s use $100 that you would have normally put on this four play entry. It wins you get $1000 back with $900 being profit.

Let’s say we add a fifth option now with the same $100. It wins you get $2000 back with $1900 being profit. See how we are now making an extra $100 when it does win!

Yes, we are taking the chance that the final uncorrelated fifth play messes up the entire entry, but over time by placing a lot of these it is beneficial.

Here’s a fun way to take out the variance.

Instead of $100 on one single five pick entry, create four $25 five pick entries with the same core four correlated plays and then have four different individual players as the final play in the entry.

For example: