Best Bets for Week 18

Plus a Week 17 Review

Last week we only placed four straight bets and went 2-2 on those for -.83 units.

Heading into this last week of the season here are where we stand with some of our weekly prop bets.

For the season 126-113 is my record for all plays +37.84 units:

• Overs 31-27 +0.7 units

• Unders 76-49 +20.95 units

• Alts 19-45 +11.29 units

Some of the futures we have placed are still in flux right now. If I’m being honest I’ll be happy if we breakeven on those, but this week can help dictate the swing of some of these.

We played a bunch of longshots on players and while some hit (Geno Smith/Brian Thomas/Trey Mcbride) there were plenty of others who just sucked or unfortunately got hurt.

Betting on player incentives is a thing of the past

Week 18 used to be the best betting week of the season because you could find incentives on players within their contract and bet on these players to do well.

Especially for teams with nothing to play for, the coaches will usually dictate gameplans around certain players if they are close to hitting a milestone in their contract that would net them extra money.

The issue this year (and even last year) is this has become so mainstream that the sportsbooks know of this.

So they heavily adjust lines.

Mike Evans needs five receptions and 85 yards for $3 million in incentives, so of course the sportsbooks have his receiving yards prop line at 100.5.

And there’s other examples like Courtland Sutton needing 82 yards for $500k, his line is at 81.5.

There’s still a massive edge in Week 18

This is still one of my favorite betting weeks of the season and it’s because there’s a big edge that nobody outside of Stealing Lines subscribers use in Week 18.

If you’re newer to Stealing Lines in the last year or two you might not be aware of a study I did regarding Week 18.

If you aren’t familiar, I recommend reading this right here before we go further along as I will reference this study and essentially be placing all of my bets this week tailoring to this.

In fact over the past two years just simply betting on these rookies we have placed bets and alternate lines on just 10 rookies over a two year span and are +10.92 units

Some quick splits over the past two years:

• 8 of 10 qualified rookies went over their receiving prop number

• 7 of 10 qualified rookies hit an alternate line of at least +200

• 5 of 10 qualified rookies hit an alternate line of at least +400

Just absurd and adds to the theory even more that this is something we should heavily lean into.

I’ve had people ask me about specific players here in matchups and to be honest I could care less about the matchups at play. Week 18 is such an odd week where very few teams have anything to play for so it becomes a glorified preseason game.

Because of this there’s tons of randomness and variance this week that we just simply never see during the regular season.

It’s also why this theory rings true is because they want their rookies to finish strong and/or see more playing time than they normally would.

So when it comes to the plays this week, there’s really no analysis. It’s all in the study and we’re going to continue to ride this until the wheels fall off.

Everyone else can have their incentives for the week, we will enjoy betting on the rookies.

Who qualifies this year?

We have a ton of rookie WRs who qualify this year with their team being eliminated from playoffs:

• Marvin Harrison

• Malik Nabers

• Rome Odunze

• Brock Bowers

• Brian Thomas

• Ricky Pearsall

• Xavier Legette

• Adonai Mitchell

Outside of Bowers, Thomas, and Nabers, all of these other rookies have very low lines that offer tons of upside by betting some alts on them.

I still think betting on Bowers, Thomas and Nabers is fine (especially Nabers), but the bar is much higher for these guys.

Some guys like Xavier Legette and Adonai Mitchell if they have lines that drop will be very key in taking some massive alts considering how low their lines are likely to be.

They could see a massive uptick in usage this week with nothing on the line.

Strategies for betting the rookies

You can bet these however you want, I’m just going to show how I bet these rookies.

I generally don’t even take their prop yardage overs and instead bet on alternate lines.

And I will do some straight but I like to round robin them.

If you’re unfamiliar with a round robin, it’s essentially a combo of parlays amongst multiple bets that you don’t need every single one to hit.

It will create every combination of parlays in the bet for each 2 leg, 3 leg, 4 leg, etc. all the way up to the fully parlay of them all hitting.

It creates a fun way to bet multiple things within one bet where you don’t need everything right to make money, you simply only need a couple to hit.

But if there was a scenario where everything did go right it creates massive upside for a big payday.

Obviously we want to be responsible we doing these round robins. It’s very easy to bet a lot of money on these considering you have to bet every single combination of a 2 leg, 3 leg, etc. in the parlay.

I’d recommend putting a total of like 3 units on the entire round robin spread out amongst the different combinations.

Without further ado here are the bets for the week.

Best Bets of Week 18

Alternate Lines (DraftKings for all)

1. Marvin Harrison Jr.

• 80+ yards: +255 (0.5u to win 1.275u)

• 100+ yards: +500 (0.2u to win 1u)

• 120+ yards: +1000 (0.1u to win 1u)

• Total Risk: 0.8 units for 3.275 units potential return

2. Rome Odunze

• 60+ yards: +295 (0.5u to win 1.475u)

• 80+ yards: +700 (0.2u to win 1.4u)

• 90+ yards: +1000 (0.1u to win 1.1u)

• Total Risk: 0.8 units for 3.975 units potential return

3. Malik Nabers

• 100+ yards: +200 (0.5u to win 1u)

• 120+ yards: +380 (0.2u to win 0.76u)

• Total Risk: 0.7 units for 1.76 units potential return

4. Ricky Pearsall

• 50+ yards: +170 (0.5u to win .84u)

• 70+ yards: +400 (0.2u to win 0.8u)

• 90+ yards: +850 (0.1u to win .85u)

• Total Risk: 0.8 units for 2.49 units potential return

5. Brock Bowers

• 100+ yards: +195 (0.5u to win .975u)

• 120+ yards: +360 (0.2u to win 0.72u)

• Total Risk: 0.7 units for 1.695 units potential return

Brian Thomas is someone I’m happy to bet on too, the bar is a bit higher for him and the alternate lines don’t offer as much value as some of these other guys.

Also we have Xavier Legette or Adonai Mitchell lines that have dropped yet otherwise we would be betting those when/if they drop.