I hope everyone had an awesome holidays and got some much needed time to relax and hang with loved ones.
Also if you’re in some fantasy championships today I wish you all the best of luck in your leagues and/or contests you’re in! It’s a fun week to sweat out all the hard work our fantasy football teams have done for us up to this part of the year.
Week 16 Review
Last week we went 4-2 on straight prop bets in a week where things went seemingly pretty well with a heavy dose of unders on the week with five of them placed going 4-1.
Up 1.6 units on the week to get back on track for now 13 of 16 weeks with a positive week betting wise.
Bad Variance
Drake Maye under 28.5 rushing yards
Maye had 17 yards late into the game until a fourth down play the Patriots called a QB draw that Maye took for 13 yards and losing this bet.
What makes this a “bad beat” is that heading into the week that the Patriots were going to limit Maye on designed rushing attempts for the rest of the year due to injury risk.
Welp we got bamboozled.
This week is extremely chaotic with five different days of the week offering football games so we have a limited number of games on today only three total plays for today with one coming for tomorrow later in our Discord.
Best Bets for Week 17
Tyler Huntley Under 168.5 Passing Yards -110 (Fanduel)
Reasoning:
Weather Conditions:
17-18 MPH sustained winds
35+ MPH gusts throughout game
Significant impact on passing game expected
Receiver Availability:
Jaylen Waddle out
Tyreek Hill banged up
Limited receiving weapons
Historical Performance:
Only one game over this number in last six starts
Consistent pattern of low passing volume
No history of big passing numbers
Game Plan Projection:
Likely heavy run emphasis
Expected passing inefficiencies due to weather
Conservative approach likely
Notes:
The combination of strong winds, limited receiving options, and Huntley's historical tendency for low passing volume are all strong reasons to fade him here today
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to 163.5