Week 15 Review
Last week we went 3-4 with a record of -0.68 units lost marking just our third losing week of the entire season.
This now puts us at +37.07 units right now on the prop markets for this year to this point.
A bets we got insanely lucky on and some bets that had me scratching my head last week.
Good Variance
Nick Chubb under 41.5 rushing yards
Nick Chubb unfortunately left the game and is now out for the season as he got hurt on his final carry that had him at 41 rushing yards.
He never returned and we somehow cashed this bet due to an injury.
Bad Variance
Rachaad White under 43.5 rushing yards
White had 25 yards heading into the 4th quarter as Bucky was mainly being used. White was ineffective the entire game and then the Chargers offense forgot how to play football and what turned from a really close game suddenly moved to heavy positive game script in a hurry for the Bucs.
White proceeded to get 8 of his 15 carries in the 4th quarter.
What made this worse was he was at 41 rushing yards with 6 minutes left to go. The Bucs were up 20 points and instead of putting in Sean Tucker to get extra reps or Bucky Irving to close the game out, the put in White and he proceeded to go over.
End of Season Chaos
There’s always more unpredictability towards the end of the season due to certain teams being fully eliminated, weather starts to play a bigger factor, and some of the top teams are slowly locking in playoff spots that won’t impact seeding as much.
There’s also plenty of backup QBs playing naturally impacting the weapons in the passing game. It’s always a brutal time of year with injuries. I try to go a little lighter on props during this time (except for week 18).
Most of my bets I like making are front-loaded at the beginning to middle of the season where it’s easiest to get an edge on the books.
But stay tuned for Week 18 because that can always be one of the best betting weeks of the season.
Best Bets for Week 16
D'Andre Swift Under 57.5 Rushing Yards -103 (Caesars)
Reasoning:
Efficiency Metrics:
-0.5 RYOE/att this year
Consistently poor performance
Bears continuing usage despite inefficiency
Previous Matchup:
11 carries for 39 yards vs Lions
Clear struggle in direct comparison
Game Context:
Bears 6.5 point underdogs
Lions slight pass funnel defense
Potential negative game script
Personnel Changes:
Roschon Johnson back
Potential for reduced workload
Last Game Context:
Late-game production when trailing multiple scores
Ineffective early despite continued usage
Bears showed questionable game planning
Notes:
Despite potentially irrational coaching decisions, Swift's poor efficiency, previous performance against Lions, and likely negative game script put this in a prime spot for him to go under.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 55.5 yards