Week 14 Review
Last week we went 5-3 on straight prop bets and hit an alt on Christian Watson on Thursday which ultimately put us up 2.49 units on the week.
It was a pretty weird week where some bets hit the over and not their alts due to weird circumstances like the Saints missing a FG to send it to OT where Kendre Miller could’ve got more yards or something like Isaac Guerendo getting hurt late in the game where they were running the clock out.
But on the other hand we had bets that just completely whiffed like Brock Bowers getting barely any looks in as good of a matchup as you could draw up and Chuba Hubbard seeing 29 carries when we bet him under 14.5 due to Jonathan Brooks getting hurt as well as the Panthers making that game close.
Even the Zach Charbonnet under was cooked by the 2nd quarter.
It felt like Sunday was actually worse than what it was but when the three losses we had were complete whiffs it can give that impression a bit.
Good Variance
Kirk Cousins over 34.5 passing attempts
Cousins had 31 attempts down three touchdowns with like 4 minutes left. Instead of pulling him for Michael Penix, they decided to keep him in there verses his former team.
On that last drive he proceeded to hit the over for us so it definitely felt like good fortune.
2024 Current Season Review
On the season my total record is 117-127 (48%) up 37.75 units on weekly props.
That win percentage might be selling myself short as when playing “alt” lines those are very likely to lose and go into the total record.
On straight props this year I’m 98-65 (60.1%).
Broken down even further:
Overs: 29-23 +3.13 units
Unders: 69-42: +21.98 units
Alts: 18-36 +12.64 units
If anyone wants to see results for themselves here’s a full link that Dan Rivera tracks for us at Stealing Lines.
Best Bets for Week 15
Jake Haener Under 186.5 Passing Yards -110 (Fanduel)
Reasoning:
Washington's Defensive Strengths:
7th in EPA/pass play in second half of season
2nd biggest run funnel defense in second half this year
Personnel Factors:
Haener lacks quality receiving weapons
Marshon Lattimore (elite CB) making debut for Commanders
Limited offensive options
Game Flow Projection:
Commanders likely to control clock early
Potential garbage time passing offset by early control
Run-heavy defensive tendency
Team Context:
Saints' offensive limitations
Weak QB situation
Limited passing game upside
Notes:
Jake Haener was the third string QB going up against a much improved secondary with Marshon Lattimore that was already playing well.
The receiving options are so limited and the Commanders are a run funnel so I expect a focus on the rush game early for the Saints until they’re forced to throw the ball
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 184.5 yards