Week 13 Review
After heading into the weekend 2-2 on bets last week it was nice to finish off 4-1 on Sunday for our now 11th week this year having a positive unit record. This week we were up 2.48 units on bets.
Some of the wins we had last week weren’t even close which is always nice when it seems like some weeks you have a better grasp of what’s going on.
After a brutal Week 9, I’ve placed a combined 28 bets and am 20-8 on those plays up 12.81 units since then.
Overall for the year we are up 35.46 just on weekly props alone!
It’s been an awesome year so far and I want to give a quick shoutout to everyone here that supports through thick and thin.
Last year was a tough year of betting and it’s easy to jump ship after a bad season, but there’s so many who have stayed and understood the process behind the bets and trusted and believed in us.
So thank you.
And I’m happy that this year we’ve been able to reward those that have ridden with us.
Bad Variance
AJ Brown over 88.5 receiving yards
AJ Brown was absolutely cooking the Ravens in the first half with 6 targets, 5 receptions and 66 yards. It seemed like a certainty that he would not only cruise over this number, but potentially have a monster day.
Nope.
The Eagles steamrolled the Ravens and rode Saquon Barkley to the finish line as Jalen Hurts attempted four passes after halftime and Brown not seeing another target.
It happens, but it sucked to see in such a pristine matchup that he didn’t get to fully capitalize on.
Thursday Night Plays
This week started off with a bang with playing Christian Watson over 48.5 receiving yards with some alternate lines at 80+ and 100+ yards that cashed for us in a big way.
Up 2.875 units on the week already with hopefully a great Sunday ahead of us.
This is the first week in a while where I like some more overs relative to most weeks.
It’s been very hard the past three to four weeks to find plays I was excited about playing which naturally lead to a ton of unders.
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Best Bets
Zach Charbonnet Under 65.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings/BetMGM)
Reasoning:
Cardinals' Recent Defensive Trends:
Big pass funnel defense since Week 7
#2 rushing defense in yards per game during this span
6-1 record on RB rushing yards unders last 7 weeks
Charbonnet's Efficiency:
Only 3.5 YPC this season
Line comparable/higher than Walker's recent lines
Showing consistent inefficiency
Team Context:
Seahawks 4th in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected)
Pass-heavy offensive tendency
Volume concerns despite starter role
Notes:
The combination of Cardinals' strong recent run defense, Charbonnet's inefficiency, and Seahawks' pass-heavy tendency are reasons why this number might be a bit aggressive.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 62.5 yards