Week 12 Review
Last week we had another winning week going 4-2 total on the player props put out.
This now makes ten winning weeks on the year compared to only two losing weeks bringing the total weekly units won to 32.78 units.
Meaning if you were to have a $100 unit size you would be up $3,278 just from my weekly props alone.
Week 12 was very interesting for the bets as we had a few bets get extremely close.
We played Chuba Hubbard under 55.5 rushing yards.
He ended with 58.
We played D’Andre Swift under 14.5 rushing attempts.
He ended with 13.
We played Kyren Williams under 76.5 rushing yards.
He finished with 72.
Good Variance
JK Dobbins under 12.5 rushing attempts
Dobbins got injured in the 2nd quarter on his sixth carry of the night and eventually left the game to not return.
We hate to win this way but this is how the game goes sometimes.
After Dobbins left the Ravens ended up getting up big and he still likely would’ve went under due to game script but still this was a zero sweat cash.
Thanksgiving Plays
I played 4 plays total between Thanksgiving and Black Friday in our Discord and went 2-2 on those bets.
We won both David Montgomery over and D’Andre Swift under while losing to Josh Jacobs rushing attempts under and Ameer Abdullah rushing yards under.
Sometimes weeks like these in the Substack can be tough because I want to put out a Thanksgiving newsletter but a lot of times the lines have moved like Montgomery or waiting on lines like Ameer Abdullah before gametime.
And then this leaves us on Sunday with fewer plays as it’s split up here.
I only have four remaining plays that I’ve sent out in the discord earlier and one of them have moved so I only have three lines that I think are playable left.
Therefore due to limited plays the rest of the plays will be free today.
Best Bets for Week 13
Chuba Hubbard Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts -115 (MGM/DraftKings/ESPNBet/Bet365)
Reasoning:
Buccaneers' Defense vs RBs:
Only one RB over this number all season
8-3 record on RB rushing attempts unders
Held notable RBs under (CMC, Bijan, Henry, Saquon)
Strong pass funnel defense
Jonathan Brooks Factor:
Expected gradual increase in rookie workload
Potential for 1-2 extra carries from last week
Could impact Hubbard's volume margin
Game Script:
Panthers 6 point underdogs
Potential negative game script
Could lead to reduced rushing attempts
Notes:
This play is mainly focused on the matchup at hand and the pass funnel nature of the Bucs defense, but we know with rookie RBs that it takes time for them to get more acclimated to the NFL so it’s possible Jonathan Brooks role continues to increase.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to: -120 odds
AJ Brown Over 88.5 Receiving Yards -110 (Fanduel)
Reasoning:
Current Season Performance:
Over this mark in 5 of 8 games
Averaging only 7 targets per game
One early exit due to injury
Arguably best WR performance in football this year
Ravens' Defense Profile:
Biggest pass funnel defense in league
Strong against the run
Last 5 top WRs all went over their receiving yards props
Outside WRs averaging 11.2 targets per game in last 5 games
Eagles' Offensive Context:
Volume for AJ Brown recently limited due to Saquon Barkley's success
Matchup suggests potential shift away from run game
Opportunity for increased passing volume
Efficiency Factor:
Producing over the line on limited volume
Potential for increased targets in this matchup
Strong performance even with volume constraints
Notes:
If there was ever a smash spot for AJ Brown and the Eagles offense to lean more into the passing game, this is the week.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 90.5 yards
Chase Brown Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts -125 (Bet365)
Reasoning:
Coach's Comments (per CoachSpeak Index):
Zac Taylor mentioned limiting Brown's workload
Seeking alternative ways to utilize players behind Brown
Recent Usage Pattern:
Last 3 games played: 27 touches per game (rushing + receiving)
Previous career high: 17 touches in a game
Signs of workload management needed
Efficiency Decline:
Last 5 weeks: 3.64 YPC
More effective in passing game
Potential fatigue from increased workload
Game Context:
Steelers among slowest-paced teams
Only 3-point spread
Suggests neutral game script
Opportunity to manage workload
Notes:
The comments made by Zac Taylor were certainly interesting and makes sense given how explosive Chase Brown was earlier in the year when he was sharing the backfield with Zack Moss.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Play to: -135 odds