Best bets for Week 13
Plus a week 12 review
Last week we had a solid week going up 4.87 units and were 8-1 on main props until Monday night when we went 0-2.
It was solid to get back on the right track and it finally felt for the first time in quite a while where things went how I felt they should have gone. In such a weird season it was nice to finally have some sense of normalcy this week.
Over the past couple weeks I’ve tended to play more overs than I normally do and have been rewarded going 9-2 on those. One of those losses was with De’Von Achane leaving early due to injury.
With sportsbooks heavily adjusting to matchups this year more-so than ever, lines or matchups that were normally very evident for unders have already been accounted for in the lines.
Because of this there’s the potential of this balancing act where overs might have more merit than ever before because of this. It’s a theory I’ve had and thought about and really started to think about this year with season long props but am now finally starting to use it for weekly props.
I’m expecting the same this week where more of my plays are going to be leaning towards overs and spots that feel like smash spots and just leaning into those a little more heavy.
Underdog Play of the Week
Last week we hit on both Purdy and Aiyuk only for Mattison who had under 10 rushing yards at halftime, break off a couple long runs to bury our 3 leg Pick ‘Em on Monday night.
This week we’re going back to a similar strategy in a prime matchup.
The fact that Tyreek has more projected fantasy points than Tua is insane and makes the likelihood much stronger for Tua to hit if Tyreek does get over that mark.
Adding that to the fact that Stafford is one of my favorite individual plays this week and hopefully we can hit it this week!
Best Bets
Tyreek Hill over 30.5 longest reception -114 (Fanduel)
Tyreek has had 12 plays over 30 yards this year Washington has given up 24 passing plays of 30+ yards this year, most in the NFL.
They lead the league with the most explosive plays allowed while the Dolphins have the most explosive pass plays in the league.
Just an absolute smash spot here for the passing attack and this is my favorite way to play it.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Play to 30.5