Last week felt like another one of those weeks where everything wasn’t going our way yet again. Going big on De’Von Achane and him getting hurt on the first drive certainly was tilting.
Then seeing David Montgomery have essentially the best rushing performance in two months against the Bears was enough to put me over the edge.
All the other bets looked screwed with Tommy Devito having a day, Devin Singletary essentially hitting his over in rush attempts in the first half and Trevor Lawrence dicing.
But somehow we lucked out on both Tommy Devito and Lawrence attempts as both teams were up enough to not pass the ball late in the game and we snuck out with two wins there.
Going big on Gibbs receiving last week paid off immensely as he caught 6 balls for 59 yards.
Monday night might’ve been the most mind-boggling game of the season in terms of expectation and what happened between the matchups.
The biggest pass offense facing the biggest pass funnel seemed like a surefire big Mahomes day but instead the Chiefs had more rushing attempts than passing attempts at halftime. Weirdly enough the Eagles number one rush defense was getting obliterated as they gave up more rushing yards in the first half against the Chiefs than they had given up to any team in a full game the entire year!
I guess that has been the frustrating part of the year has been these slam dunk matchups have been more fluky than it feels in years past.
The good news though is we started off on the right foot this week going 3-0 on the main props on Thanksgiving.
The luck might be turning around for us as we somehow went 2-0 in the Lions/Packers game despite betting for a big Lions win. The fact that the Packers essentially help control of game script the entire game and we still got an under out of AJ Dillon and an over on Gibbs rushing yards was a blessing.
Underdog Play of the Week
Keeping it simple here with just three plays on the Pick ‘Em. I’ll touch on it later on my plays but these are matchup based plays.
If Diggs has a big game like I’m expecting this will naturally boost Allen’s line and as we mentioned before these are the types of plays we want to correlate.
Best Bets
Stefon Diggs over 73.5 receiving yards -114 (Unibet/BetRivers)
Philly has been a sieve for number 1 WRs and we’ve seen teams target their number one WRs an average of 12.9 per game against them.
In fact every WR1 this year has seen 10+ targets against them.
They’re the 4th biggest pass offense in the league facing the 2nd biggest pass funnel.
We’ve seen some great WRs play against the eagles this year similar to Diggs here’s how they fared:
Jefferson 11 for 159
Wilson 6 for 90
Tyreek 11 for 88
Ceedee 11 for 191
Expecting a big game for Diggs here.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Play to 76.5