Week 10 Review
After a rough week 9 we had a strong bounce back last week going 5-1 on official plays up 3.87 units.
It was a great week for unders as I went 5-0 on them and lost the only over I played last week.
Good Variance
Austin Ekeler under 47.5 rushing yards
This was officially played in the Substack at 44.5 which makes this even crazier.
Halfway through the 3rd quarter Austin Ekeler had 13 carries for 44 rushing yards.
Half of the analysis was spot on in that Ekeler would likely be inefficient against the Steelers rush defense, but the other half in that he would be in a full committee was incorrect up until this point.
For the next roughly 20 minutes of the game, Austin Ekeler didn’t have one single rush attempt as they brought in Chris Rodriguez a bit and used Ekeler as a receiver.
It was one of the sweatiest bets of the year and we somehow won.
I have a pretty funny story regarding that bet that I wanted to share.
So I have a buddy named Caden who is super into sports and bets casually with a bunch of his friends. Last week I had a fun convo with him.
I asked him one simple question: “Have you bet an under before?”
His response: “Never.”
I quickly explained why I bet them and sent him a few plays from last week.
I made sure to warn him that they are they worst bets to sweat ahead of time so he knew what he was getting himself into.
I proceed to get this text from him halfway through the first games.
Ekeler seemed absolutely cooked and CMC was a true toss up at this point.
About 15 more minutes goes by and I get one of the funniest texts I’ve got in quite some time.
The full caps and some absolutely brutal sweats for a first time under bettor.
We’ve all been there Caden.
Thank goodness the parlay cashed and he came out a winner, but I’m really curious to see if he will run it back again this week for the brutal mid game sweats that can be endured.
Season Update
On the season for current weekly player props I have a total record of 95-87 (52.2%) +29.11 units.
The splits are as follows:
22-20 (52.4%) -0.57 units on Overs
57-35 (62.0%) +17.98 units on Unders
16-32 (33.3%) +11.7 units on Alts
After having a rough stretch with overs earlier in the year it’s been nice to see a bounce back as we’ve won more recently over the past 5-6 weeks.
Since most of the volume I bet is unders it’s natural that the winning percentage went down a little bit, but overall is still the bread and butter.
The alternate lines have been the fun ones this year and we have been running pretty hot on those so far this year.
Best Bets for Week 10
Anthony Richardson Under 28.5 Passing Attempts -120 (Bet365/BetMGM)
Reasoning:
Jets' Defense vs QB Attempts:
Maximum attempts allowed: 31
Only half of QBs exceed 25 attempts
8-2 record for QB attempts unders
Richardson's Career Pattern:
Only three games over 25 attempts
Limited passing volume history
Team Context:
Jonathan Taylor expected to be featured
Potential focus on short/easy throws
Likely increased usage of Richardson's rushing ability
Organizational Considerations:
Franchise situation suggests conservative approach
Need to protect/manage Richardson
Focus on efficiency over volume
Conclusion:
After getting benched, it’s likely the team is going to put Richardson in more advantageous situations.
The matchup indicates a lot of rushing and we should see Jonathan Taylor get a bit of volume as well as potentially Richardson on the ground.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.2 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 27.5 at -120