Week 10 Review
Last week was pretty brutal and continue our bad run right now.
After a fun whole hearted piece talking about how cool it was to be up on the season after being down so bad early on, we are currently on a very bad run over the last four weeks as we’ve been down 10.4 units over these past four weeks.
I’ll say I’ve never been in a position like this before being down 10.2 units on props through 10 weeks. Like I said I’ll have to analyze here and see what is really going on but it overall feels like a very weird year of NFL football in general.
I want to look back at last week because and see what wrong because it felt like we have had some bad variance as we went 3-7.
Looking back on my process from last week I’d say I stand by all of my picks except for maybe the TJ Hockenson under I threw in the morning before game time with a report coming out that he would be limited due to an injury.
I mean in all honesty that report was kind of correct as he only played 63% of the snaps, by far the lowest of the season but somehow turned that into 15 targets for 11 receptions and 134 yards for by far his best game of the year.
I think the Aiyuk one hurt really bad as it felt like a really strong play and a big reason for the play was because there was a strong likelihood that this game WOULDN’T be a blowout and there would be neutral game scripts keeping the 49ers passing.
Maybe the one play I got the most right was Bijan as he inexplicially had a 56.5 rushing line and got 22 carries! We were so close to hitting a 6/1 alt on him and honestly if you told me before the week Bijan had 22 carries against the Cardinals rush defense I would’ve been convinced he would’ve smashed his alt and put himself in the conversation for most rushing yards of the week.
The David Montgomery play was a bit tilting as I truly didn’t believe Dan Campbell for the first time in his history coaching would do the smart thing and give a young talented RB on his team more carries than a plodder ahead of him. And I played Montgomery’s carries instead of his rushing yardage prop that he absolutely smashed due to an uncharacteristic 75 yard touchdown for him.
And I completely whiffed on the Cardinals. I actually felt the Hollywood Brown look was a sneaky banger finding a unique angle that I was very confident in. Both Kyler and Hollywood played a ton with each other both in college and even last year with each other. Seemingly in every game historically Hollywood has produced big number being the number 1 WR.
Despite McBride’s breakout, it still was surprising to see Hollywood only have 4 targets last week and be completely wiped from the gameplan as Kyler really hasn’t played a ton of games with any other options on the team outside of Hollywood (dating to college).
As of now I haven’t bet Hollywood’s over this week as his line is somehow higher than it was last week. It’s something I might be before game time because it certainly feels like one of those plays that felt very strong and the week after it completely dudding that it will smash this week. I think after writing this now I’m talking myself into hitting Hollywood overs, he has such a strong history of performing with Kyler and last week just happened to be the worst week they’ve ever had together by far.
I don’t know I honestly feel like I’m rambling right now and searching for answers for what is really going wrong this year. We had some discord members mention that it could be some of the long shots haven’t been played as much as I normally do as every week the past couple years of betting it has been a fun but profitable piece of the puzzle for me.
Unfortunately sites like DraftKings, MGM and Fanduel have really limited action on these markets pretty heavily and they have generally have had more efficient lines than before.
I think part of my issue is I haven’t adapted enough. I’ve developed a process over the past few years in betting and it’s worked with so much success that maybe I have been too unwilling to change because I’ve seen it work in the past.
I mentioned last week that team matchups have been very hard to rely on this year as it feels much more fragile than years past.
I will say that the futures we have played generally are looking pretty good right now. In terms of team evaluation it seems like I’ve done a decent job this year and hopefully we can continue to keep pacing well for those.
The best is we don’t know what is ahead here the rest of the season and there is still plenty of time to make it up.
NBA Plays
Mike Braude has been slowly putting out some NBA plays here and there during the season and has done an incredible job so far this season going 14-8 on props in our Discord.
Last year he crushed hitting 57% of his prop bets with an official record of 193-146.
Mike has done an awesome job in his busy life and in his spare time grinding out basketball plays whenever he pleases for our discord members. Because of this we aren’t promising anything in terms of our basketball package this year, but one thing to note is that whenever Mike does decide to put out plays they are extremely well researched and both Ben and I fully back his process and results.
Underdog Play of the Week
Well we finally did it! After getting teased basically on a weekly basis with how close we were to winning a Pick ‘Em slip, we finally did it.
By correlating both Aiyuk and Purdy’s fantasy points and adding that to our most confident play of the week in Aidan O’Connell’s under it allowed us to win.
I think one thing I’m learning when it comes to adding slips weekly is the idea of finding a top 5 WR in the league and taking his fantasy points over AND his quarterbacks over.
The reason being for this is because since these players already have a high weekly projection, it takes a lot of production for them to hit their overs. Whether thats through a touchdown or just a massive receiving day, this naturally is making that quarterback do well that week through a couple things. First is obviously if that receiver is scoring a touchdown then so is the QB which is a two for one. But this works even if the WR doesn’t score a touchdown. Let’s say they’re having a massive day through the air without a TD not only is the QB scoring points every time they throw to this WR but it increases the likelihood that this team is continuously moving the chains and down the field which naturally allows for the opportunity for more scoring chances for the quarterback.
It seems so foolproof in the sense that if the WR doesn’t hit that number the QB probably isn’t hitting their number while the inverse is true. It feels easier for a top WR to not hit their fantasy score and the QB to still hit it by throwing to other players than it would be for the WR to hit their projection and the QB not to hit it.
Something like this
I know I’ve mentioned I hate doing overs but in this context it really feels like we’re banking on the following to happen for this slip to win: Kupp to have a great game, Garrett Wilson to have a good game, and Achane to go over his projection.
There’s always cases where all of this happens and we fail to win this slip, but the fact that we are getting a potential payout of 20x on this feels strong.
So let’s ride!
I encourage to focus on passing offenses that are concentrated towards a top WR and adding their QB in slips and play around with a bunch of them mixing them around!
Best bets
Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions +102 (Caesars) AND Gibbs over 25.5 receiving yards -110 (MGM)
I’m just splitting these up because I really have a hard time picking which one I like so I’m doing a half unit on each. In all likelihood if one wins the other will as well, but there’s scenarios where one does and the other doesn’t.
The Bears have given up by far the most yards to RBs this year with an average of 61.5 per game, the 2nd most is 52 a game. They’ve also given up the 3rd most receptions to RBs this year.
This is actually a wild stat but the Bears have given up more receiving yards up to running backs than they have given up rushing yards to RBs!
Bears are the 2nd biggest pass funnel in the league and we saw Gibbs last week run 66% of the routes compared to Montgomery only running a route on 31% of routes.
This was Gibbs highest route participation he has seen with David Montgomery in the lineup as well.
Keep in mind these stats are for combined RBs this year facing the Bears but they’ve allowed 30+ receiving yards to RBs in every game and 4+ receptions in every game to RBs this year.
In a game with a clear mismatch towards the Bears putrid passing defense, there should be opportunities for Gibbs to shine as a receiver.
Risk .5 units to win .51 units on Gibbs receptions Play to -105 or just Gibbs yards for full unit
Risk .55 units to win .5 units on Gibbs yards Play to 27.5