Overall this post this week is going to be very short and simple. This week I haven’t placed a ton of bets due to not finding as many spots I’m super confident in this week.
We had such a good run with the football year so far that at some point there had to be a losing week.
Unfortunately in Week 9 that happened as we had a bad week with betting down 5.78 units and it just so happened to be the worst week of the season.
For the season we are currently up 25.24 units.
Overall it just felt like a week where nothing really went right. I had some plays that just blatantly missed as well as some others that barely missed and others that got unlucky.
Unfortunately we didn’t have really any plays that we got lucky on and a few that just missed.
Let’s look at how some of those plays went for the previous week.
Bad Variance
AJ Brown over 77.5 receiving yards
AJ Brown left the game at the end of the 2nd quarter and didn’t return from the game due to injury.
In a perfect matchup for AJ Brown he never got to realize his potential with this injury.
JK Dobbins under 66.5 rushing yards
With 6 minutes left in the game Dobbins had 39 rushing yards in a drive that was definitely in a game script that lent towards the run.
Even knowing that it made it extremely frustrating that Dobbins had been held in check all game and then ripped off a 34 yard run to bury our hopes here.
Thursday Night
We won our bet of Chase Brown under 15.5 rushing attempts after he had 9 in the first half and the Bengals having a two possession lead.
The Bengals had a ton of play volume and passed the ball at an extremely high rate which allowed us to cash.
It always feels good heading into the week with a solid win on Thursday.
Best Bets for Week 10
Tony Pollard Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts -115 (Bet365)
Reasoning:
Coaching Intentions:
Brian Callahan mentioned limiting Pollard's workload multiple times in the past week (per CoachSpeak Index)
Game Pace:
Titans and Chargers both bottom three in pace
Expected very slow-paced game
Chargers' Game Script Impact:
In Chargers' wins: RB rushing attempts under in 4 of 5 games
Chargers are 7.5 point favorites
Suggests positive game script for Chargers
Personnel Changes:
Tyjae Spears returning to lineup
Potential for more balanced workload distribution
Notes:
The fact that the Titans being clear they don’t want Pollard handling a big workload with the addition of Spears coming back in a game they’re huge underdogs, gives us multiple outs for a win here.
Recommendation:
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Play to: 14.5