Best Bets for Week 1
We’re finally here to week one and it feels so glorious.
It feels so nice to get a fresh start at a season where last year went about as bad as it possibly could have gone. This year is about proving to every sub that we can still beat these markets and last year was simply what is was - a bad year.
After a massively successful Year 1 of Stealing Lines, and a previous season before Stealing Lines was created with another massive betting season it felt like the market was very soft and very beatable.
While I do think that is the case now the edge has certainly dwindled. With sportsbooks releasing better lines off the open and now with more touts in the space that can move inefficient lines, it’s become increasingly more difficult.
This isn’t going to change anytime soon.
I think the best solution and practical thing that will impact Stealing Lines and how I approach my process this year is being more selective on bets. Gone are the days in which I was sending out 20-25 plays a week.
I think a reasonable expectation is around 10-15 a week and choosing the right spots.
Also finding unique markets where edges might be opening up and invested into those.
Stuff like the season long QB alternate market I wrote about earlier and also the monthly leaders categories.
There’s edges to be had in fresh and new markets that we can still take advantage of.
Anyways happy Sunday to everyone and here are my favorite plays for today that haven’t moved yet.
Best Bets for the week
Jayden Daniels under 32.5 passing attempts -114 (FanDuel)
In college Daniels had an insanely high scramble rate at 14.1%, that would put him in the top tier of scramblers for NFL QBs.
On top of this Jayden Daniels got sacked at a very high rate on dropbacks in his college career, something that will likely translate to the pros. His combination of scrambling/sack rate is very similar to Justin Fields even though Daniels should be a much better version of that.
Historically, teams with rookie QBs tend to skew pretty run heavy in their rookie season. And even though the Bucs were a pass funnel last year, I’d expect them to use Daniels quite a bit on the ground. We saw in preseason them use Daniels as a passer with a very quick release and short aDOT attempts, I’m not fully buying that as the real offense.
It felt more of “we’re going to ease you into the speed of the NFL and make sure you don’t take unnecessary hits scrambling or takings sacks” rather than that being the type of passing style they will implement. I also think Daniels might have a great day rushing the ball and instead of taking another over on that, I’d much rather play that angle this way.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Play to 32.5 -120