A couple final futures bets
Two awards, plus a divisional stat leader
It’s almost go time. If you’re not in the Discord, make sure to rectify that, because Dalton has been throwing out a ton of fantastic plays over the past week. My absolute favorite series of bets tied perfectly into one of my fantasy Bold Predictions about Garrett Wilson — as always, Dalton has the perfect way to play it. So make sure you’re hitting those, because those are fun ones.
While I haven’t had a bunch of futures bets to throw out there, and I’ve talked with Dalton about the ones I do like, I’m pumped for the start of the season to get here. But before we get to the Week 1 sides and totals, which is right around the corner, I do want to throw out a couple bets here today, two of which pair well with bets Dalton’s already taken, even if they run counter to them.
First off, though, I need to address something real quick. In my review of the 2022 Stealing Lines year and look ahead to 2023, I talked through some opinions I had about a bet-tracking system that included “tailing” picks. (I’ve since updated that section of that post, but you can find my initial thoughts in the original email you received dated August 17.)
I just want to clarify that my comments were in no way related to an individual site specifically, and that site is 4for4. It was a failure of mine to not recognize those comments would be taken that way, since we brought that system over from 4for4, where Dalton previously worked, and where he also met and initially worked with our tracker, Dan. It may seem a little hard to believe, but because we do have some close connections with 4for4 — and I personally have a strong relationship with many individuals inside of and ultimately think highly of that whole organization — it never really crossed my mind that it would be taken as a shot at 4for4. I specifically referred to multiple sites that use the system, and my mind went back to the original days of online betting where a site would have tons of dudes with independent records as a way to advertise only winners, and my real issue was and remains with how that system can be manipulated in marketing, which I wrote and is not something I would ever ascribe to 4for4, because again I do know those guys care a lot about doing this stuff the right way.
This may seem like an unnecessary clarification, but I still wanted to make it, because this stuff is all very important in the betting space. I consider myself something of an outsider and more of just an observer than an expert on these betting-related matters specifically, but again I still should have picked my words on that a little better. In this instance, I know several of you guys first learned of Dalton’s awesome work at 4for4, followed him over here, and sub at both places, so it’s important for me to make clear that I have the utmost respect for the guys at 4for4 and the way they do business.
Alright, let’s get to three more bets to add to your portfolio.
Bryce Young, Offensive Rookie of the Year, +500 (DraftKings)
I took this one in Discord back on August 24, and the line is still there if you still want to pair it with Dalton’s great work on Bijan Robinson.
While I do really like the Robinson bet, my main logic here is a QB hasn’t won this award in two years, and I do think voters are influenced by those multi-year trends sometimes. If Bijan has the historic season Dalton discussed recently, forget it. But if he has more of a “great” season than a “legendary” one, we might be talking about a tiebreaker here, where voters are influenced by the difficulty of putting up a great season as a rookie QB, as measured by a lack of good seasons by most recent rookies.
I do think over time, we’re seeing voters recognize the relative “value” of different positions at the NFL level, including with their decisions to award the OROY to a wide receiver each of the past two years, and the DROY to a defensive back last year, all of which were rare if you look at these things on a longer timeline. They’ve also taken to turning the MVP into a full-on QB award.
That is also I think advantage to QBs if you get a strong season. And if we do get one this year, I am squarely on Team Young over C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson. Richardson has the dual threat ability, but the accuracy is likely to be enough of a factor to limit his passing success (which matters) at best, and potential lead to a benching at worst. Stroud would be my third favorite bet here, but I’m concerned about how quickly he can assimilate in a tough situation after he played in a really favorable one at Ohio State the past few years.
The same could be said about Young, but he looked remarkably comfortable in the pocket in the preseason, and there are some elements to his profile that I think can translate a little quicker. He also gets to work with Frank Reich, who I think is an underrated coach in terms of utilizing his players’ strengths. Young’s supporting cast leaves plenty to be desired — Adam Thielen is on the wrong end of his age curve, while Jonathan Mingo isn’t the most exciting rookie prospect and DJ Chark, Hayden Hurst, and others are probably plus role players at best — but the Panthers also play in a weak division, and there’s an argument to be made they could threaten to win it.
With Jaxon Smith-Njigba dealing with the wrist that might delay his impact, and Jahmyr Gibbs likely not getting enough traditional RB usage, plus the solid lean on Young being the best QB play, I really like having tickets on the two favorites here.
Risk 1 unit to win 5 units (DraftKings)
Play to +450