2023 NFL Mock Draft + Bets
If you came here mostly for bets, don’t worry I have some for you but they are few and far between. This year sportsbooks really cracked down on the draft props. Not only have they not released anywhere close to the same menus they offered last year, but limits are even tighter in these markets. Fewer people can get down reasonable amounts of money and if they can they the market will move off that action. It’s made it tough in my position because I want to give out tons and tons of longshots and plays, but it’s nearly impossible for everybody to be able to bet it unless these markets are available on multiple books.
This will be my second year creating an official mock draft and last year I was rather impressed with how well I started off. I correctly nailed 8 of the first 19 team to player fits and felt like I was on my way to one of the most accurate mock drafts in the industry last year until I completely whiffed on picks 20-32.
While I had 8 of the first 19 correct I didn’t necessarily have them in the correct order. I had Trevor Penning to the Saints at 16 (he went to them at 19) and Chris Olave to the Saints at 19 (they traded up to 11). I was far from perfect and there were a lot of trades in the top 19, yet we still finished well. Heading into last years draft I had a very good feel for a general sense of what was going to happen.
Not this year.
I feel extremely clueless about what is going to happen in this draft and more-so wanted to have this here just to go through scenarios at play and how one or two picks early on can really flip the draft on it’s head.
When reading through my mock draft and picks, I think it’s much more important to pay attention to the scenarios at play rather than the specific picks. Understanding these scenarios at play allow us to get a better range for these players because it’s a certainty that things aren’t going to go how we expect.
I also want to purposefully put some unique scenarios in here that I think are totally possible, but I haven’t seen in many mock drafts. A lot of time mocks at the beginning are too similar and we really need to embrace a wider range of outcomes while still creating logical scenarios from connecting dots. Even if they’re hard to predict, I do like putting some trades in here mainly to re-emphasize a player who has fallen further than I wanted to and sometimes I can’t find a team with that need in that specific range.
If you are to take actionable stuff away from this I would say after pick 16 focus less on the exact order in which the players are in and more team/position fits. I also just kind of snuck all the players I think will be in the first round in here regardless of perfect team fit. Last year my mock really started missing the exact combos after the middle half.
I’m fully anticipating to look back at this mock on Friday morning and laughing at how bad it was. Take this with a grain of salt.
1. Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young (QB)
It really feels like this is as locked in as possible right now.
2. Houston Texans - Will Levis (QB)
The Texans really hold the keys to the ENTIRE draft.
There’s been lots of mystery at this pick because it’s been clear that the Texans wanted Bryce Young and he will not be available for them to pick.
Lance Zeirlein who is plugged in with the Texans (and correctly picked both their first rounders last year) sent shock waves when he had the Texans passing on a QB at 2 to take Tyree Wilson in a mock draft a couple weeks ago. He then had them trading up to 7th in that same mock draft for Will Levis.
It’s clear that they like these players and Will Levis stuck out to me a bit, but the main question is if you’re taking a QB why wouldn’t you take him at 2 and then try to trade up for a defender later? If you pass on a QB at 2 there’s no guarantee that you’re able to get one at 12 or that one will be able to trade up for if they fall.
On top of that you have a division rival picking at fourth overall that seem like a certainty they are taking a QB and the Titans have been heavily rumored to want to move up to draft a QB at 3.
So now the question becomes: “Do the Texans have a trade in place in the veteran market?” Someone like Mac Jones or Trey Lance would certainly make sense, but you’d think this trade would have to happen before they make their selection in order for them to pass on QB.
Another option becomes that the Texans really don’t like any of these QBs and they really will pass on QBs this year in hopes that they can get a QB in next years draft. In theory that makes sense with elite prospects like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye coming out next year and the Texans having multiple first rounders next year.
The flawed logic with this though is that the Texans are in a very weak division and the chances are they won’t be picking in the top two next year to draft one of them. And those QBs are so good that teams won’t be trading out of those picks. On top of this, Nick Caserio has been rumored to be on the hot seat. What better way to save your job than to tie yourself to a potential franchise QB?
So let’s say the Texans do decide to go defense here and whiff on the ability to trade up for one of Levis, Stroud, or Richardson. They’ve now backed themselves in a corner where they almost need to overpay for someone like Hendon Hooker by moving back in to the first round for him. The Texans have done extensive work on him and he seems like a logical fit if they were to go defense.
Basically how I’m reading this situation and what has been rumored is that Nick Caserio and Demeco Ryans don’t want to force a QB they don’t fully believe in at second overall and would rather stick to their board. What becomes interesting though is that Cal McNair (the owner) could easily step in and demand a QB at 2nd overall. If you’re the Texans you never know when you’re going to be picking this high again and have the opportunity to draft a young franchise QB. By passing on this opportunity you are putting your team at massive risk of being stuck in QB purgatory.
Ultimately it makes zero sense for the Texans to pass on a QB and allow division rivals scoop up the best remaining QBs that they might have to face for the next decade in their division. It’s been rumored that the Texans have Levis as QB2 on their board and that’s why he’s the pick here.
Really anything could happen here.
Levis’s range feels locked in the top 5.
Honorable mentions: Tyree Wilson/Will Anderson
3. Indianapolis Colts (via AZ) - Anthony Richardson (QB)
I would be pretty shocked if the Cardinals didn’t trade out of this pick. They’re beyond desperate and I believe they aren’t getting the offers they had hoped for at this point.
In this scenario the Colts get to trade up and get their guy while blocking a division rival in the Titans from snagging this pick. The Cardinals get a pick or two to add to their rebuild.
I genuinely believe the NFL quietly loves Anthony Richardson and there hasn’t been massive buzz on him because teams don’t want to tip their hand that they are interested in him.
How could you not fall in love with the most athletic QB of all time with elite size and arm talent? Oh and he also sneakily manages the pocket very well and has taken sacks at one of the lowest rates of any QB prospect in the last few years. With the NFL seeing success of running QBs like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields, it’s very easy to see teams loving him.
The Colts made a head scratching move benching Matt Ryan in favor of Sam Ehlinger last year because he was mobile and they understood the advantage of having a rushing QB!
Well you know who also likely understands the value of a running QB? New head coach Shane Steichen who created a successful offense around Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
There’s plenty of dots to connect here where it would make a lot of sense that the Colts would have Richardson as the apple of their eye over someone like CJ Stroud.
Richardson’s range is from 3-7.
Honorable mention: Trade down with the Titans/Falcons (both for Richardson)
4. Arizona Cardinals (via IND) - Tyree Wilson (DE)
I think ideally the Cardinals want to move further down the board and. collect more draft picks, but in this scenario this is all they could get.
Tyree has felt to be the preference of certain teams over Will Anderson due to the upside of his freaky length and size (that’s what she said). We saw it last year with Travon Walker being drafted over Aidan Hutchinson.
There is some potential red flags on Wilson’s injury history that could push him down boards a little bit, but he’s reportedly been cleared by multiple teams in the top 10.
I wouldn’t be shocked if either Will Anderson or Paris Johnson were the pick here.
His range is 2-9.
Honorable mention: Will Anderson/Paris Johnson
5. Seattle Seahawks - Jalen Carter (DL)
Perfect scheme fit here as the Seahawks are able to get the most talented player in the draft at five. There’s been off the field concerns about him, but we’ve seen the betting market have Jalen Carter as a -200 favorite to be the pick here.
His range is 5-9.
Honorable mention: Will Anderson/CJ Stroud
6. Detroit Lions - Will Anderson (DE)
There’s been a lot of speculation that the Lions are keyed in on cornerback Devon Witherspoon here and while I’m fully buying into that, this is a unique scenario where a top player falls to them at six.
I don’t think the Lions would be able to pass on Anderson here especially in a deep CB class.
His range is 2-7.
Honorable mention: Devon Witherspoon/CJ Stroud
7. Las Vegas Raiders - Devon Witherspoon (CB)
There’s been more and more growing buzz that Witherspoon could be the pick here. It fits a need to for the Raiders as they have three young cornerbacks on one year deals and no true long term assets there.
I had a buddy of mine inside the organization mention that the general sense is that Witherspoon would be the guy if available, but having a QB like Stroud available could have the Raiders potentially re-think.
His range is 6-7.
Honorable mention: Paris Johnson/CJ Stroud
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (via ATL) - Paris Johnson (OT)
The Steelers are generally one of the easiest teams to read each year heading into the draft.
The Steelers have constantly been mentioned as a team that is in the market to trade up and last time they were heavily rumored to trade up, they did moving from 20 to 10 for Devin Bush.
Tackle is a big need for the Steelers and it’s likely the run on tackles would be gone before their pick at 17.
Another interesting note is that Mike Tomlin has been to the pro day of every Steelers first round pick dating back to 2010 and he attended Ohio State’s this year.
The Falcons have also been rumored to be trading down here.
His range is 3-11.
Honorable mention: Falcons stay and take Bijan Robinson
9. Chicago Bears - Darnell Wright (OT)
The Bears have quite a few needs and the sense is they would LOVE it if someone like Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson available here.
Wright can be a plug and play right tackle - a perfect fit - for the Bears. There’s been rumors that the Bears have been high on Wright during this process as he essentially shut down some of the top pass rushers in this class in college.
His range is 9-17.
Honorable mention: Lukas Van Ness/Trade down
10. Philadelphia Eagles - Peter Skoronski (OT/OG)
The Eagles love building through the trenches and a reason they have been so successful is that they’ve consistently had elite depth at the offensive line.
With Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson getting older as well as a need at guard, Skoronski can be a plug and play starter here.
Joe Banner (former president of the Eagles) mentioned on a show with the 33rd team that he believes the Eagles would be targeting Skoronski here.
Works for me.
His range is 8-15.
Honorable mention: Nolan Smith/Bijan Robinson
11. Tennessee Titans - CJ Stroud (QB)
A take I have this draft is that CJ Stroud will fall further than we think. I certainly think it’s possible he goes as high as four, but the sense is there may be questions surrounding him heading into the draft regarding his low S2 score. NFL teams value stuff like that immensely and despite him being a dangerously accurate QB in college, it’s very easy for teams to potentially point out that he had likely 4-5 first round WRs to throw to (Wilson, Olave, Harrison Jr, Smith-Njigba) and an amazing offensive line with Paris Johnson and Dawand Jones.
Ultimately Stroud is a good QB prospect, but might suffers a slide during the draft.
His range is 3-16.
Honorable mention: Trade back/Broderick Jones
12. Houston Texans - Nolan Smith (DE)
If the Texans take a QB at 2, they’d likely be very happy to have one of Smith or Lukas Van Ness here to help their pass rush.
Smith should go around this range in the draft and fits a need for the Texans.
His range is 8-16.
Honorable mention: Lukas Van Ness/Bijan Robinson
13. Washington Commanders (via GB) - Christian Gonzalez (CB)
It feels very wrong to have Gonzalez this low, it’s just really hard to find a team with a glaring need in the range he should go. His range starts as early as seven and if the Cardinals trade back far enough he could certainly be an option for them.
Commanders fill a need by moving up a few spots for an unexpected slide for Gonzalez.
His range is 7-16.
Honorable mention: Packers take Jaxon Smith Njigba
14. New England Patriots - Lukas Van Ness (DE)
Van Ness is an athletic pass rusher who could bolster the pass rush for the Patriots. He’s the last edge rusher before a tier break.
His range is 8-17.
Honorable mention: Trade down/Bijan Robinson
15. New York Jets - Broderick Jones (OT)
The last of the top four offensive lineman go here and it makes sense given a need here. If Smith or Van Ness fall here it’s easy to see them be in the conversation.
Daniel Jeremiah is plugged in with the Jets and had him going here in mock he did with Peter Schrager in which the other lineman were off the board.
His range is 11-17.
16. Green Bay Packers - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Complements perfectly next to Christian Watson and fits a massive need. He also checks their thresholds they look for in first round picks.
His range is 13-20.
Honorable mention: Dalton Kincaid
17. Atlanta Falcons - Bijan Robinson (RB)
Honestly, I’d be a little surprised if he made it this far in the draft as a team in the 20s could easily trade up for him. Fits BPA for Atlanta and they add another top skill position player in the offense.
His range is 8-16.
18. Detroit Lions - Michael Mayer (TE)
I’m indifferent to him or Kincaid here, but it feels like Mayer might fit this offense a little better as a more traditional tight end.
I think the Lions come away with a tight end at this pick and can focus on cornerback in round two.
His range is 14-25.
Honorable mention: Dalton Kincaid/Deonte Banks/Joey Porter Jr.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Brian Branch (CB/S)
Fits a need here and Branch is still a great football player despite underwhelming combine results.
His range is 19-early 2nd
Honorable mention: Anton Harrison
20. Seattle Seahawks - Zay Flowers (WR)
Seahawks can save close to $17 million next year with a post June 1 cut on Tyler Lockett. Flowers is versatile to play alongside both Metcalf and Lockett with the intention he takes over Lockett’s main role in 2024.
His range is 11-25
Honorable mention: Hendon Hooker, Jordan Addison
21. Los Angeles Chargers - Jordan Addison (WR)
The WR coach recruited Addison to Maryland in which he followed to Pittsburgh when he became a coach over there.
Good connection there on top of a perfect stylistic fit with Justin Herbert, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
His range is 20-early 2nd
Honorable mention: Dalton Kincaid
22. Baltimore Ravens - Joey Porter Jr (CB)
Ravens need help in the secondary. Could make a case for Forbes or Banks here.
His range is 16-27
Honorable mention: Emmanuel Forbes/Deonte Banks
23. Minnesota Vikings - Emmanuel Forbes (CB)
He’s shooting up boards and feels like a first round lock right now plus this is a need.
His range is 16-27.
Honorable mention: Quentin Johnston/Deonte Banks
24. Jacksonville Jaguars - Anton Harrison (OT)
Cam Robinson is facing a suspension and Anton is a perfect fit here. He’s expected to be a first rounder.
His range is 17-31.
Honorable mention: O’Cyrus Torrence, Matthew Bergeren
25. New York Giants - Quentin Johnston (WR)
Finally getting Daniel Jones much needed help. Giants need to draft a WR early.
His range is 20-early 2nd
Honorable mention: Dalton Kincaid
26. Dallas Cowboys - Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Best name in the draft. Replace Dalton with Dalton. Cowboys would likely sprint to the podium if he was here.
His range is 13-26.
Honorable mention: Jahmyr Gibbs
27. Buffalo Bills - Deonte Banks (CB)
Feels gross having him this low. Elite athlete who checks a lot of boxes is what you’re looking for.
His range is 16-27.
Honorable mention: Jahmyr Gibbs
28. Cincinatti Bengals - Calijah Kancey (DT)
Perfect scheme fit, if Kancey were bigger/lengthier he would be a top 10 pick.
His range is 18-early 2nd
Honorable mention: Darnell Washington/Jahmyr Gibbs
29. New Orleans Saints - O’Cyrus Torrence (G)
Saints could use help on the line and Torrence is expected to firmly be in the round 1 conversation and could go as early as the late teens.
His range is 18-29
Honorable mention: Hendon Hooker/Steve Avila
30. Philadelphia Eagles - Myles Murphy (DE)
Lasted further than I think he will go in the draft, but fits a need and is an elite athlete.
His range is 13-30
Honorable mention: Jahmyr Gibbs/Will McDonald
31. Kansas City Chiefs - Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Chiefs hopefully won’t have deja vu and will select an actual good running back this time in Gibbs. He would offer a unique element in their offense.
His range is 19-early 2nd