For the second year in a row, Week 1 brought us an atmosphere where teams seemed to be treating it like Preseason Week 4. The lines reflected it, which is why I actually took a few overs (went 2-1 on those). But 24 teams had a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation, and four more were within 1.5 percentage points of expectation. The only teams that aired it out at all were the Chicago Bears (+3.1% PROE in a horrendous offensive showing), Los Angeles Rams (+4.7% in a close loss), Kansas City Chiefs (+5.4%, which is a low number for them frankly), and Cincinnati Bengals (+9.0% in another horrendous offensive showing, where they only ran 48 plays).
On the flip side, four offenses — Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and San Francisco — were at -10% or lower, and five more were between -8% and -10%. If the expected pass rates were shifted about four percentage points, the PROEs might have made a little more sense.
But what does that mean? Does it mean that the teams are going to run constantly against the two-high shells we talked about all last year?
I think we’ve probably seen a shift. I also think Week 1, and the early season, is just different in 17-game seasons. In Week 1 last year, 22 offenses were negative to just 10 positive, with three at -10% or lower. But that next group wasn’t so extreme — there were nine teams below -5% compared to nine below -8% this year — and there were more teams well into the positive, with five teams over +7.5%. The average last year was only -1.3%; it shifted to -3.8% this year.
These numbers matter, because as we’ve talked about, higher run rates keep the clock moving and reduce play volume. They don’t always have to reduce scoring when offensives are able to be explosive with balance, which was less true years ago but has become a more distinct trend with good rushing offenses now that passing explosives have been schemed out in so many instances.
But they matter because they help us understand the game. For now, I want to get a good look at pass rates in Week 2. There are a lot of things that could happen, and might feel obvious in hindsight if they do, but some of the run heavy teams really struggled in Week 1, and it’s almost always my default to expect struggling teams to look for new answers.
Last week, we went 4-3 on sides and totals to kick off the year. No unders again this week; I liked a couple, but it felt like forcing them as all the lines are a couple points muted. As always, all minus bets are bet to win 1 unit, all plus bets are risk 1 unit.
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
Pick: BAL -8, -112 (DraftKings)
Also playable at -8.5
Let’s start with a beatdown spot. The Ravens are coming off a loss in the opener, but this is a good football team, and they return home with 10 days’ rest to face the Raiders.
In Week 1, the Raiders threw a decent amount, but Gardner Minshew’s 4.5 aDOT was lowest among the league’s starting QBs, and Antonio Pierce made one of the more disastrous punt decisions of the past decade. I did like what we saw from rookie Brock Bowers, and obviously Davante Adams is a star, but this isn’t an easy matchup, and Minshew’s going to have to push things a little more for the Raiders to have much chance of scoring. The RBs didn’t look like difference-makers in this offense, either.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have a strong defense. There were some leaks against Kansas City, but they hung right with the defending champs in one of Week 1’s best games. The emergence of Isaiah Likely gives this spread passing offense another weapon as Lamar Jackson enters Year 2 in this Todd Monken system. The Raiders will probably play tough defense under Pierce this year, but Baltimore is too dynamic.