Thursday Night Recap
It always feels good to get off to a nice start on the week as we were 2-0 on my official plays for Thursday night in the Discord. Despite the game being 24-3 in favor of the Jets, we hit both Breece Hall’s under rushing yards and Jacoby Brissett’s under on the passing yards.
It’s not normal for us to hit these kinda of bets when the game script heavily favored against both of our bets but we will take it.
Week 2 Review
In Week 2 I went 6-6 on official plays ending up netting a profitable week at 0.01 units.
A win is a win.
Monday night ended a bit rough when we had Kirk Cousins under 229.5 passing yards. If Saquon Barkley catches that pass on third down it ends the game and we cruise to a nice win. Instead, Kirk Cousins marches down the field for 70 yards and finishes with 241 passing yards.
Can’t win them all.
Overall it’s been a solid start to the season.
2024 Passing Trends
Passing trends have still be down after another run heavy week 2.
What we are seeing in the NFL is a version of the “haves” and the “have-nots” on offense.
The teams that have multiple ways to beat them with different types of players AND a competent offensive scheme will be just fine this season.
The others might be in for a rude awakening as this downtrend in passing is unlikely to change anytime soon.
I think teams like the Saints and Cardinals are legit offenses with incredible schematic advantages and enough good player personnel to make that leap to potentially elite or just top offenses.
This new age of defense is forcing teams to beat them on the ground so if you have a power running game and can be effective running the ball on top of having a great passing offenses, these are the teams that will be able to withstand this new shift in defenses.
Injuries have also started to pile up like crazy especially for major key skill players across the league. It been a big storyline and it sucks that in a year where offenses we already being neutered, losing top offensive players even for a short period of time could continue to give defenses the edge.
Heading into week 3 I’m accepting the trend that passing will be down overall, but also acknowledging that some teams are just starting slow like the Bengals and will be getting better matchups ahead.
My Process for Week 3
I don’t really have a firm process this week of targeting this overall trend in bets, mainly because the sportsbooks continue to adjust to this as well.
I’m taking account of what coaches are saying and notice that two weeks in the season is a small sample and sometimes teams can get away from their plans and who they have wanted to utilize this season.
The Raiders are a perfect example of this. They are second in the NFL right now with a pass rate over expected of 6%.
If we listened to anything they were saying in the offseason and given the old school philosophy that Antonio Pierce has, you would’ve sworn they would be one of the run heavier teams in the league.
But we’ve seen Zamir White be ineffective so far and last week they played the Ravens who have one of the best rushing defenses. The Raiders couldn’t run the ball so they basically threw the ball every time and ended up winning.
While I think it would be very smart for the Raiders to continue throwing it and feeding the ball to Davante Adams and up and coming superstar Brock Bowers, it’s likely the Raiders haven’t been in a game yet where they run the offense they envisioned.
They were down by double digits in both games and had negative game script.
Antonio Pierce had this to say earlier this week on Zamir White courtesy of The Coachspeak Index:
“I’m gonna keep pumping him up. Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him. That was the goal this week, didn’t happen. That’s gonna be the goal this week and every week while he’s the starting running back and I’m here.”
Do coaches lie? Yeah sometimes, but a lot of times when things are consistent over a long period of time there is truth to it.
And I do believe there are other instances similar to this across the league where we could see roles shift or big emphasis on certain players who haven’t done much early on the week.
So a lot of that is going to be a big part of my process each week.
And just because I see a quote like that and acknowledge that the Raiders are probably going to give Zamir White the ball a bit this week in a good matchup am I suddenly betting on him to touch the ball a ton?
It’s a perfect time for my bets for the week.
Friendly reminder if you are a subscriber and are not in our Discord we highly recommend getting in there. If you check your “Welcome to Stealing Lines” email there will be a link there to join. All of these plays were made previously in the Discord up to 72 hours ago with better prices.
I’m also doing a new format for my picks this week so any and all feedback on it is appreciated.
Best Bets for Week 3
Gardner Minshew under 32.5 pass attempts -125 (Bet365)
I initially considered betting on the over for Zamir White's attempts, but the line is currently at 14.5, which is higher than I expected. While I still think it might go over, I'd prefer to bet the under for Gardner.
The Raiders have had a high Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) of 6% through two weeks, but I believe this might be somewhat fluky. They completely abandoned their game plan last week, which I think was more reactionary to the Ravens' defensive strategy rather than the Raiders' intent.
Ravens Game Analysis
The Ravens' secondary is currently struggling
Their pass rush isn't generating much pressure
Their run defense has been strong
The Raiders leaned into the passing game as it was working
Raiders' Strategy
Antonio Pierce has emphasized his desire to get Zamir White more involved, and this matchup seems perfect for that approach. The Panthers are a massive run funnel with a -10% PROE against them, and they've just lost Derrick Brown for the year. It seems likely that the Raiders will focus on running the ball with White in this game.
Game Pace and Style
In neutral scripts:
The Panthers have the slowest offense
The Raiders have the 7th slowest offense I'm expecting a relatively boring game.
Additional Considerations
Davante Adams has a favorable matchup, which the Raiders might exploit to some extent
There's a possibility that the Panthers are simply very bad and unable to keep up, allowing the Raiders to stick to their game plan of running the ball
For those feeling adventurous, consider a reverse correlation play: bet on Gardner's under attempts along with some Adams alternates
Betting Recommendation
Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit
Play to 31.5 at -105 odds