Last week started exceptionally well, with my final tally reaching a 13-6 record and gaining 10.44 units.
Week 1 was historic in that we saw passing offenses have their worst performance in quite some time. The average passing yards for a quarterback was 188.3, the lowest since 2006. Quarterback passing props went 24-8 to the under, and if we look at just Sunday and Monday games, that number is even more striking at 24-4.
Teams were much more willing to run the ball, as 24 of 32 teams had a negative pass rate over expected for the week. Offenses also ran fewer plays in the first week, with an average of 59.2 offensive plays run. In 2023, this average was 62.7, so we've seen a decrease of almost 3.5 plays per game.
The question we have to ask ourselves is: Was this a fluke or a sign of things to come?
Considering the NFL changed its stance on preseason in 2021, decreasing the games from four to three, we've seen passing decline in Week 1. We've also observed a trend of NFL starters playing fewer and fewer preseason drives due to injury concerns.
Long gone are the days where the 3rd preseason game was essentially a "half game" for the starters, where the first-team offense generally played at least a quarter and sometimes all the way until halftime. Now, we have starters sometimes playing only one or two drives all preseason, if at all.
This lack of live game reps can lead to the passing game not being as in sync. That's one reason for the decline. The second is that defenses are taking away the deep ball and forcing offenses to either run the ball due to light boxes or rely on short passes to move the ball downfield.
Because of these factors, we might have to readjust our early-season expectations for the passing game. Things could certainly swing back in Week 2 with a vengeance, but it feels like we have enough of a Week 1 data point to signal that this could be a trend, at least early on in the season.
Some of my bets for Week 2 are aligning with this theory and target some of the teams I think are least likely to see a big shift from Week 1 to Week 2.
Best Bets of the Week
Malik Willis under 168.5 passing yards -115 (BetRivers)
Really bad line for a QB who has never passed more than 99 yards in a game before. Expecting an insanely run heavy game plan.
Malik Willis just got traded to the Packers just two weeks ago and has had minimal time to learn the system and get up to par.
This matters more for a QB like Willis vs other types of QBs mainly because Willis is a unique QB with a skillset that requires a team to scheme around him rather than him fitting the scheme.
I’m generally shocked that the Packers are rolling out Willis considering his ineptitude as a passer. I’d expect plenty of runs in this game and probably a lot of read option as well with Malik Willis running the ball.
Sean Clifford got activated to the roster and while he is also not good he at least spent all of last year and this preseason with the team so he’s familiar with the scheme.
It’s totally possible Willis is so bad that Clifford comes in and gets snaps at QB in this game.
Risk 2.3 units to win 2 units
Play to 155.5