2024 Win Total Bets and how Rookie QBs do
Welp we’re finally back in the swing of things with sportsbooks posting plenty of futures for the NFL season.
I want to welcome everyone back as we slowly start to embark on the 2024 season filled with the idea of a fun bounce back year where we can finally get some normalcy in the NFL.
For me personally I’ve been hiding behind the shadows of the NFL world a bit to recharge and get ready back for this season. What that looks like for me is traveling a bit and playing way too much pickleball. I’ve been involved with a pickleball brand and it’s been a big side passion for me during the offseason which has been a fun project.
We are in training camp week which means it’s fully into the season now of camp updates, reports, injuries and of course sportsbooks having plenty of lines for us to bet regarding these things.
What this means is that these bets and plays are going to come sporadically over the next couple months. Not every bet and every play I personally put out will be on Substack, but every single one will be in our Discord. If you’re a paid subscriber and not in our Discord make sure you check your “Welcome to Stealing Lines” email for the link. I generally want fun research and studies on the Substack as well as bigger pieces that include a grouping of bets that recently got released.
Betting Win Totals: Fade Rookie Quarterbacks
A theory I’ve had when betting win totals is to naturally fade all the rookie quarterbacks. It’s a known stigma in the NFL that rookie quarterbacks simply don’t win many games. This is for a few reasons: It’s extremely rare that a rookie quarterback performs well. The quarterback position is the toughest in all of major sports and the development on these players sometimes takes multiple years before we see the best versions of themselves.
On top of this teams that take rookie quarterbacks high in the draft tend to have these opportunities because they are very bad. So heading into the year the overall talent of these teams are generally inferior to the average NFL team.
Historical Data (2003-2023)
Criteria: Rookie QB drafted in the top 10, started at least 10 games as a rookie.
Results:
29 instances
Teams went over their win total 11 times.
Teams went under their win total 15 times.
Three teams pushed.
Betting the over would have yielded a win only 37.9% of the time.
But what if that logic is backwards and we should be identifying teams with Rookie QBs that could go over their win total and then betting the rookie of the year market that way?
Just within the scope of the the sample of rookie QBs that went over their win total we saw 6 of these 11 (54.5%) of these players win Rookie of the Year. It’s a solid number but not as substantial and actionable as we would like.
But when we start looking at the five players who didn’t win Rookie of the Year we can start to see the added context and some of these five that didn’t win were still strong candidates in most years.
Rookie of the Year Winners
Since 2003, 10 QBs have won Rookie of the Year, and their teams' win totals are 8-1-1 in those scenarios. Identifying potential Rookie of the Year candidates can help in betting on win totals.
Notable cases where QB Rookie of the Year candidates did not win despite their team win total going over:
Andrew Luck - had Robert Griffin in his class, would’ve won in most years.
Baker Mayfield - received 43% of the vote, but Saquon Barkley had 2,000+ scrimmage yards. Would’ve won in most years.
Josh Allen - had both Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in his class.
Mark Sanchez - was not good, had both the number one rushing offense and number one defense that lead the team to their over win total.
Carson Wentz - wasn’t superb but had Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot in his class.
Ben Roethlisberger, the 11th pick in his draft, won Rookie of the Year after going 13-0 in his starts, further supporting this trend.
And also dating back to 2003 the only quarterback to win Rookie of the Year without having his team go over their win total is Justin Herbert. He basically set records as a rookie and only missed his teams win total by half a game.
So it’s really hard for you as a Rookie QB to underperform your teams expectations and still win Rookie of the Year.
Everything I referenced above seems like common sense. If you’re good as a rookie QB your team is likely to be better and if your team is better you win more games than you expected and because you played good and helped your team win games you get a strong consideration for Rookie of the Year.
Easy.
So we essentially have two guiding factors here. First is that we generally want to lean under on the team win total for these rookie QBs. 62.1% of the time we bet the under on this teams win total we either would’ve won or tied our bet. Our second thing to consider if that if we like a teams over then we should also be sprinkling some bets on that QB to win Rookie of the Year.
2024 Rookie Quarterbacks
The five rookie QBs this year are:
Caleb Williams (8.5 wins)
Jayden Daniels (6.5 wins)
Patriots (4.5 wins)
Falcons (9.5 wins)
Vikings (7.0 wins)
Michael Penix (Falcons) is unlikely to start 10 games. This year, a QB is likely to win Rookie of the Year, even with strong WR candidates in the class.
Obviously we can kind of throw the Falcons out of the window due to Michael Penix starting as the backup and very unlikely to reach the 10 games started qualification. And even if he did, the Falcons are very likely to go under due to Kirk Cousins inflating this number for the team.
Also due to five QBs being selected in the top 10 this makes it likely that it is a QB taking home this award. Even with guys like Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze in this class, all it takes is one of these four QBs starting to over exceed expectations to put them in the drivers seat.
It’s fully possible that all four under perform and therefore opening up a pathway for a big season from a top 10 WR to snag this award, but the safe bet is a QB will do so.
Below I am going to make the case for the following QBs and their path to winning rookie of the year.
I do want to add Bo Nix here as he was the 12th pick and will likely get some serious playing time as a rookie.
Pathways to Rookie of the Year
Caleb Williams
The Bears make the playoffs and the likes of Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Rome Odunze help elevate this offense into a top 10 offense in the league.
Caleb still has some rookie mistakes but due to his talent and everyone else around him he’s able to help win the team games consistently.
The Bears defense maintains that they were a top 5 unit at the end of last year and the Bears win 10+ games.
As long as Caleb doesn’t completely falter and it feels very hard for him not to be successful in this situation, then he should be the overwhelming favorite unless another rookie QB has an outstanding rookie year.
I’m viewing Caleb Williams as a rookie in the same boat as someone like Andrew Luck. Luck would’ve won the rookie of the year award in like 90% of rookie classes as he lead his team to the playoffs with an 11-5 record after finishing 2-14 the year prior. Despite Luck making the Pro Bowl, it took Robert Griffin III having one of the best rookie seasons of all time with over 800 yards rushing on the ground and only throwing 5 interceptions.
Jayden Daniels
For all of these players below here it likely requires some sort of underperformance by Caleb Williams for them to have a legit shot.
Daniels shows last year at LSU wasn’t a fluke. He rushes for 700+ yards, Terry McLaurin has his best year yet and Jahan Dotson is re-juvenated as a legit WR2 in this offense.
The Commanders are a sneaky and fun team that is flirting with a Wild Card spot and in the playoff hunt towards the end of the year. Daniels is a must-watch player becoming efficient both through the air and showcasing his legs as a massive weapon week in and week out.
Drake Maye
Drake Maye has a Mac Jones start to his rookie year where he shows everyone why he’s been a top QB prospect for a couple years running now.
With low expectations given the state of the Patriots without Belicheck and minimal weapons on offense, Jacoby Brissett starts the season but quickly underwhelms and forces the Patriots to start Drake Maye. With Maye starting, he and the Patriots overexceed expectations and are winning games because of Drake Maye.
They are relying on him to take over this offense and he’s proven he is making the weapons around him better. One of Ja’Lynn Polk or Javon Baker has a rookie breakout campaign along with someone like Hunter Henry having a resurgence year.
This team isn’t necessarily a true playoff threat, but are looked at as a tough out every given week due to the talent of Drake Maye. They might maybe sneak into the playoffs but more likely are just in the backend of the hunt and this is solely because of how great Maye is performing.
JJ McCarthy
McCarthy starts week one and Justin Jefferson does not take a step back. Addison flourishes in year 2 and McCarthy is still being efficient in a high volume passing attack. He does a great job limiting turnovers and managing the game while also being able to consistently get points on the board for this offense.
Because of this, the Vikings are winning games and are a sneaky team that makes a run into the playoffs or are at least in the conversation down to the wire.
McCarthy sheds the “project” label and because of his coaching and support of weapons around him he’s able to thrive in this situation.
Bo Nix
Bo Nix is the week 1 starter and immediately meshes perfectly in Sean Payton’s offense. Despite the lack of talent around him he is able to elevate the team to 7 wins and have flirted with the postseason. The rest of the rookie QBs have under-ecxeeded expectations and Nix puts up impressive stats despite the defense being one of the worst in the league and the offense is sneakily a top 10 unit under Nix.
How I am betting offensive Rookie of the Year
Unfortunately I am not placing any bets right now, but if there was one in which I did bet it would be Caleb Williams at +150.
What I am keeping an eye on is camp reports specifically out of both the Vikings and Patriots in regards to potential timelines and/or progressions that both JJ McCarthy and Drake Maye are doing in camp. If we can get somewhat of clarity or a range on when they will be starting this upcoming season it will help us with this entire market as I believe currently they offer the best values.
The issue is if they aren’t playing until Week 6 or later they’re almost drawing dead in this rookie of the year race.
I think Maye is the one to keep an eye on the most, if he has a timeline that could get him into the lineup by the third or fourth week of the season he would be my favorite bet.
Otherwise right now this market feels like Caleb Williams to lose. I have a hard time playing at +150 right now because of the uncertainty with Maye/McCarthy timelines. If both seem to not to be locked into playing early, I will feel more comfortable about placing a bigger bet on Williams even at such short odds.